SCU Men's Basketball - The Long and Short of It

 

                                                                                                                    

It's already been quite a season for the Broncos.  Since our first three games, we've been long on minutes and short on healthy bodies.  Our 10-5 record is a good start, but we were  "minutes" away from entering league at 12-3.   

The WCC season is a long one and recent indications are that it may turn out to be a short or shorter season for everyone.  The resurgence of COVID adds an ugly wild card to every roster.  Once a roster "bubble" is burst, it affects and can infect many others.  There will be more postponements in addition to this week and, my guess, eventual cancellations as we run deeper into the season and run out of make up times before the March WCC tourney in Las Vegas.  As of today, the plan is to start our WCC league play is against St. Mary's on January 6th at Leavey.

Let's hope for the best.

If there are no COVID cancellations, what could we expect from the Broncos this year in the WCC?  

The consensus of the predictors is SCU is likely to finish 7th or, with upside,  6th.   At the top is the perennial leader Gonzaga.  Even with landing the #1 recruit, Chet Holmgren, I don't think they are as good as last year's team.  They are still VERY GOOD and a top 5 national team.  Odds are for 16-0 in the WCC.  Upset possibilities - BYU, St. Mary's, or USF. 

The most interesting part of the WCC this year will be the battle for the 2, 3, and 4 spots in the standings.  Favorite:  BYU.  They have size, speed, and experience.  St. Mary's badly wants the # 2 spot back.  After an "off" year, they have everyone back, plus key transfers including Matthais Tass from USD, a big piece in their reload.  They have a very consistent offense and the #11 defense in the NCAA.  They hang tough.  I don't feel they are the most explosive or athletic team and that may be their downfall versus USF. 

USF has built a great roster in the transfer portal to go along with two outstanding guards; Bouyea and Shabazz.  They can do it all.  Score, defend, and make the right read to others who can score it.  That, along with a top 17 defense is a great combination.  They have all the tools to push BYU for the second spot.  

I see the Broncos at 9-7.  I'd love to have SCU prove everyone wrong and get to 10-6.  To do this, we have to have to go 5-1 vs LMU, USD, and Pepperdine and sweep Portland and Pacific.  All something we haven't done in the recent past.  To get to 10 wins, we'll have to pull off an upset against St. Mary's or get a win versus USF.  Doable, but hard.  

Our central issue is that we are "short" on "long" players; while the heart of the WCC isn't.  Josip is great and Braun a strong addition, but we need more horses coming out the corral.  Factor in that WCC coaches know SCU's game plan and they'll defend our strengths aggressively and make us win using our weaknesses.  Finishing at 10-6 with an upset as mentioned above will get us into the NIT conversation with a season record of 20-11.  In Las Vegas, we will need a semi-final appearance to make a stronger NIT case. 

Our best option to achieve the above is to maintain the 50% solution I mentioned several times before.  Shoot our way to 10 wins with at least a 50% FG percentage.  We most certainly won't rebound our way there.  In our 10 preseason wins, we shot 50% or better in 7 of those games.  Our lowest FG % was about 45%.   We CAN do it.  The tempo has to rev up, the ball has to be moving and finding teammates making crisp cuts to the rim to make it happen.

Shooting short of 50% could make it a long WCC season.

And that's the Long and Short of it...