Tuesday, November 25, 2014

The Bronco's 2014-15 Season Outlook







Four games into the season the 2014-15 Broncos need "seasoning".

I love the early, more difficult schedule with roadies at Michigan State (#20), Tennessee, and then, maybe Kansas (#11) at the Orlando Classic.  It must be exciting and a little daunting to walk into 10,000 - 14,000 seat arenas and "game up".  

It never feels great to get whipped at Michigan State - but you are playing Michigan State.  It's where we want to be - the competitive company we need to keep playing.  An important "ingredient" of the seasoning and recruiting.

As fans and season ticket holders, we whine about playing a St. Katherine's...even the elite teams play some patsies.  Duke plays Presbyterian and Fairfield.  Louisville plays Savannah State.  You want to see some ugly box scores?  These I call "rhythm" games. You know you'll win, but the players get reps and some tempo for where it counts - league. 

What should we expect of the Broncos?  

Media prognosticators rank us as high as 6th and as low as 8th in the WCC.  No NCAA tourney, again, unless we pull a "Nash" like upset in the WCC tourney final.  Follow the link below for one version of the 2014-15 WCC outlook.


WCC Predictions


Unfortunately, at the moment, it seems that "gulf" between the top 3 teams and the others may be getting wider.  The ability of Gonzaga, St. Mary's, BYU, and now, USF (NIT last Year) to attract impact transfers shortens their "time to competitiveness" vs trying to grow new freshman or incubating redshirts.


I do like our true freshman class.  All will have an impact this year. I just worry that the learning curve for our offensive and defensive schemes is too steep for 1st year players.  It's not a lack of athleticism.  They have plenty of talent.  It might just be "too many reads" or decisions to process that creates inconsistencies - i.e. turnovers and defensive coverage errors.  

As fans, we wonder why late in a close game we tend to turn the ball over (Utah State).  Frustrating.  As the intensity rises, the game "speeds" up and decisions have to be made much faster.  Hard enough for veterans; let alone 1st and 2nd year players.

SO, here we go.  The Bucking Bronco outlook has us at 13-16 overall and 8-10 in WCC.  Upside 16-13 overall.  

Tougher schedule (a good thing) and stronger WCC.  In addition to the big 3, San Diego, USF, and Portland have more senior leadership and scoring for us to deal with as well.  Pretty much all the top 6 teams have "inside/out" threats.  

We will try to go low, but most of the time will settle for a longer perimeter shot OR, on occasion, a Hubbard elbow turnaround that looks good and we haven't had since Trasolini.  We will also try to use our guard speed to penetrate, shoot, or dish to a waiting 3 point shooter.  That can be an Achilles heel given our decision making learning curve.

Opponents will make someone other than J. Brownridge or B. Clark beat us.  

The good news is that we are getting a heavy dose of "seasoning" early...playing NCAA tourney teams and at bigger exposure venues.  

As season ticket holders and fans we just hope the marinating doesn't take too long...

We're "starving" for another post season gig!

Also, follow me on Twitter @Fcrary for more Bronco updates.












Thursday, November 13, 2014

The Co$t of Being Top 25




"The Bucking Bronco"



Every NCAA team wants to be ranked vs "rank"?  

To be Top 25....

For Men's Basketball, we just need about another $4,000,000/yr.

Every year.....

We also need at least 3 years to get there. (by the time Jared Brownridge is a senior)

That would put our budget where Gonzaga was last year ($6M) and a pinch above BYU in 2013.

I know you think I'm joking, and some may be choking on those numbers, but they're real.  

Here are a few of the teams the President's Commission benchmarked for 2013 Men's Basketball spending:

Creighton - $5.0M
Xavier - $4.5M
Butler - $4.4M

Then there's stratospheric:

Duke - $15.2M
Georgetown - $9.6M
Villanova - $7.5M

The Heavyweights are printing money - profitable.  

The Middleweights - where we want to be - make money - but like to "hide" it to show a break even.

Some of the above numbers don't include other "off budget" things; such as special events, appearance fees, money guarantees for home games, some coaching salaries, etc...

Perspective:  SCU's entire Athletic Budget for all sports is less than what Duke spends on basketball.  

Still want to compete...There's more...

You need infrastructure for recruiting, marketing, promotions, program management, etc.  We're talking better facilities, more staff, and aggressive Brand building.  You need a "WOW" factor.  

We have work to do.  Envision a recruiting trip for "the guy we're maybe not supposed to get".  Awesome campus.  The buildings look good and have the aura of 150 years of academic cred.  The Mission, the gardens, the library centerpiece...Then...

You walk into Leavey.  Pretty nice, but needs help. 
Tough sell.  This is where the recruits will spend huge hours. It needs a "makeover".  Whether it's the weight room, locker room, floor or a designated team meeting space.  It needs to make a "statement". 

What would a cosmetic Leavey makeover cost?  Not sure, might be in the $1-2M neighborhood depending on how extensive, but it needs to be in the immediate plan.

Still interested?

Why $4M more?  Because we're behind in the race.  I have seen actual teams line item budgets to get that estimate. We are more than 25 scholarships behind in athletics.  (Men's Bball is OK here).  You have to spend more just to catch up. That means we need to spend more on Marketing and Communication than others to get "We're on a Mission" on the radar.

We need to build momentum.  Do something bold.  Maybe, fill Leavey for home games?

How about free tickets for local Alums, all students and faculty, surrounding high school students like Bellarmine, Mitty, Presentation, St. Francis, etc.. for certain games.  Or buy one get one free...

Still listening?  

The SCU Trustees were.  But the numbers they heard were bigger...I'm just talking about a visible sport like Men's Basketball.  They heard the real TOTAL amount for SCU Athletics to compete in the WCC and nationally...

That number is nearly TRIPLE our current athletics budget...

They didn't flinch...they want what we as fans want.

Their voice has been heard and now it's our turn...

The season starts tomorrow.  We, the season ticket holders and fans, have a part in this as well.

To support, be visible, vocal, expect and be catalysts for change.  

We hope the investment return shows up as additional banners hanging in Leavey.  A deserving return on an investment and most importantly, a return to a winning Bronco tradition...



Next Up:  Season Outlook - don't miss!