We are literally "minutes" away from from an 9-0 start. It's crazy that we've been able to get our record to 6-3. How? By burning the candle at both ends. The Short roster means heavy minutes and having to test our Freshman bench well before their "midterm" of the season.
Despite all of this, amazingly, we lead all our opponents in every major stat category except as we all know; rebounding. It's not the total (311 - 307), but it's the offensive rebounding that has done the damage (111) over 12 per game. It's sorta like adding those to our turnovers per game giving way to second chances to score.
In my mind, it's not the rebounds that are the main culprit, but rather the tired legs shooting mid first and mid second half that has been key to falling short. Even against LA Tech with Ken Lofton, the 6'7" 275 lbs, second coming of the "round mound of rebound" (Charles Barkley) we had 3 to 4 good looks to steal that game. Tired legs down the stretch make hitting key shots harder. It's frustrating for both season ticket holders and coaches to see those shots, usually money, miss.
So, we just have to go with the "Fifty Percent Solution." Shoot 'em out the gym. In our six wins, our shooting average is 54.5%. Our worst 47% - our best 61%. We shot 39% in our three losses. Our opponents FG average is about 40%. Even though we have struggled giving up offensive rebounds, our defense and ball movement to get good looks has carried us to some very good wins.
We will face the same challenges throughout the rest of our preseason and WCC schedule. Getting Josip Vrankic back healthy will be huge for us, but will still leave us undersized versus most of our opponents. He can score both inside, at the elbow, and most importantly find the right open shooter when he kicks the ball back out. It will be tough to win the rebounding battles. By sustaining our defensive pressure and pushing the ball up the court and finding our shooters in their spots and in rhythm will maximize our points per possession and create the 50% solution.
The next two games will test us in all of the above. Mt. St. Mary's is not highly ranked, but they are tall and experienced. They have a nice combo of a quick 5'10" guard and three 6'9" front line players who can score at the rim. If we can hang in there rebounding and push the ball we will have a great opportunity to win with our 50% game plan.
Our game at Cal will be a much tougher challenge. They are fresh off wins over Fresno State and Oregon State. Their win over Fresno was interesting. The Fresno 7'0" center, Orlando Robinson, scored his 25 points, but the Cal defense held off the other shooters. Cal won the game by shooting 44% from three; five of those in the second half. Same drill for us. Limit second chance points, pressure the 3 ball, and score in transition. This would be a perfect time for the 50% solution to show up and get a great road win.
Going 2-0 this week would bring us to 8-3 and that's way better than 50-50. We just need the 50% solution to happen in 75% of our remaining games and take our chances on, dare I say a Post Season invite?
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