SCU Men's Basketball - The Long and Short of It

 

                                                                                                                    

It's already been quite a season for the Broncos.  Since our first three games, we've been long on minutes and short on healthy bodies.  Our 10-5 record is a good start, but we were  "minutes" away from entering league at 12-3.   

The WCC season is a long one and recent indications are that it may turn out to be a short or shorter season for everyone.  The resurgence of COVID adds an ugly wild card to every roster.  Once a roster "bubble" is burst, it affects and can infect many others.  There will be more postponements in addition to this week and, my guess, eventual cancellations as we run deeper into the season and run out of make up times before the March WCC tourney in Las Vegas.  As of today, the plan is to start our WCC league play is against St. Mary's on January 6th at Leavey.

Let's hope for the best.

If there are no COVID cancellations, what could we expect from the Broncos this year in the WCC?  

The consensus of the predictors is SCU is likely to finish 7th or, with upside,  6th.   At the top is the perennial leader Gonzaga.  Even with landing the #1 recruit, Chet Holmgren, I don't think they are as good as last year's team.  They are still VERY GOOD and a top 5 national team.  Odds are for 16-0 in the WCC.  Upset possibilities - BYU, St. Mary's, or USF. 

The most interesting part of the WCC this year will be the battle for the 2, 3, and 4 spots in the standings.  Favorite:  BYU.  They have size, speed, and experience.  St. Mary's badly wants the # 2 spot back.  After an "off" year, they have everyone back, plus key transfers including Matthais Tass from USD, a big piece in their reload.  They have a very consistent offense and the #11 defense in the NCAA.  They hang tough.  I don't feel they are the most explosive or athletic team and that may be their downfall versus USF. 

USF has built a great roster in the transfer portal to go along with two outstanding guards; Bouyea and Shabazz.  They can do it all.  Score, defend, and make the right read to others who can score it.  That, along with a top 17 defense is a great combination.  They have all the tools to push BYU for the second spot.  

I see the Broncos at 9-7.  I'd love to have SCU prove everyone wrong and get to 10-6.  To do this, we have to have to go 5-1 vs LMU, USD, and Pepperdine and sweep Portland and Pacific.  All something we haven't done in the recent past.  To get to 10 wins, we'll have to pull off an upset against St. Mary's or get a win versus USF.  Doable, but hard.  

Our central issue is that we are "short" on "long" players; while the heart of the WCC isn't.  Josip is great and Braun a strong addition, but we need more horses coming out the corral.  Factor in that WCC coaches know SCU's game plan and they'll defend our strengths aggressively and make us win using our weaknesses.  Finishing at 10-6 with an upset as mentioned above will get us into the NIT conversation with a season record of 20-11.  In Las Vegas, we will need a semi-final appearance to make a stronger NIT case. 

Our best option to achieve the above is to maintain the 50% solution I mentioned several times before.  Shoot our way to 10 wins with at least a 50% FG percentage.  We most certainly won't rebound our way there.  In our 10 preseason wins, we shot 50% or better in 7 of those games.  Our lowest FG % was about 45%.   We CAN do it.  The tempo has to rev up, the ball has to be moving and finding teammates making crisp cuts to the rim to make it happen.

Shooting short of 50% could make it a long WCC season.

And that's the Long and Short of it...

 

SCU Men's Basketball - Christmas Wishes

 

                                                                                                                     

'Twas the week before League and all through the West 

Not a player was stirring after taking their tests

The SCU banners were hung on high from the rafters with care 

In the hopes a Championship one day would soon be there

The fans were nestled all snug in their beds 

With visions of victories dancing in their heads

The coaches together immersed in their plans 

Creating upsets that would fill up the Leavey stands

When out on the gym floor there arose such a clatter 

That Renee sprang from her office to see what was the matter

Away at mid-court Jalen made a steal with a flash 

Then raced down court and dunked with a smash

The Rough Riders cheering was loud and growing 

Amazed at the talent their team was showing

He moved so fast, so lively and quick 

That all knew this wasn't a Trick

Then all together they came 

The greats of the past as we called out their names

On Awtry, on Ogden, on Rambis, Nash, and Sears 

Who made us nationally relevant for all of those years

To the NCAA, NIT and Championships now in the past 

Little did we know it wasn't to last

And then in a twinkling they arrived one by one 

Recruits from all over that were second to none

Dressed in their Red, tall, smart and fast 

Their play gave off visions of our incredible past

The schedule was daunting where the Zags reigned as kings 

But this group of Broncos was about to change things

They picked and they rolled, onto the Vegas tournament they were in 

Where the odds against the Zags were 1,000 and one to win

Play after Play they stayed strong as a team  

Shooting and rebounding as they saw in their dream

Then at the end, it came as a shock 

As Timme drove for the dunk, there came the game ending shot block

The ball was rejected at the rim 

As SCU hung on for the win

The oddsmakers wailed as they paid out the cash 

It reminded us of the last big upset from our Hall of Famer Nash

It was a night to dream that we even had a chance 

To return to the NCAA Tournament Big Dance

Thoughts of the future and hopes remain clear in our sight 

Until then Merry Christmas to all and to all a goodnight.....

SCU Men's Basketball - Two "Half's" Don't Make a Whole

 

                                                                                                                       

If two "halfs" did make a whole, the Broncos would be 9-2 and not 7-4; with four more preseason games remaining.  The next four are all winnable games; with tonight's roadie at Boise State being a tough win. My guess is that we win three of the next four to exit non-conference at 10-5.  

The good news is we've been "in" every game and had our chances to get the W, but lately we just can't seem to put two "halfs" together.  We can put quarters, (10 min) together, but not in the same half.  In our last four games, we have been behind at the half in three of the four games; winning two and losing two. 

Against LA Tech, Mt. St. Mary's, and Cal we were ahead in the first ten minutes of each; only to fall behind in two of these by the end of the half.  We were behind Hawaii by eight in the first ten minutes.  In the last ten minutes of the second half, we dominated Mt. St. Mary's and Hawaii to post double digit wins.  We made strong pushes in the second half to tie Cal and get within two of LA Tech, but couldn't finish for the win.  

With us, it's like the Forrest Gump adage "you never know" what ten minutes you're gonna get.  We all witnessed the ten minutes of the ball moving, guys making the right reads, good shots falling and filling up the assist book.  Then we see the next ten minutes, when we stop moving and devolve into standing around then having to take hard shot attempts as the clock winds down.  Our guys try to make a play in the middle, get caught in "big land" and can't find the teammate who made the extra cut to get open.  

On defense, in those ten minute lapses, we fall victim to easy screen/roll buckets that we either stopped or contested early on.  At Cal, we led 34-24 with about four minutes left in the half only to give up a 14-0 Cal run to fall behind by four.  

It's frustrating to watch (when the video streaming actually works) and no doubt to the coaches trying to motivate the players through it.  Those are the ten minutes where we miss Josip Vrankic the most.  A leader, a calm head, who in many cases makes the pass or play to get us back in sync.  Unfortunately, we didn't have him and although we have scoring leaders each game we need another floor leader to get us back on track.  

Tonight at Boise State we'll have our hands full.  They usually start four seniors and a talented freshman.  Ranked # 63 in Kenpom, we will see speed, some size, and depth.  They shoot it pretty well, but a major strength is offensive rebounding - something we struggle with.  We should have a deeper roster tonight with Vrankic getting some minutes, but it will take two full "halfs: of effort.  Two of our four losses are on the road.  Hopefully, we can throw a TCU effort at them tonight and squeak by.

We have Florida A & M Friday and Montana Sunday at home.  Both teams we match up well against and should be able to "wrap up" the Christmas season with wins.  

We will need our overall guard play to get their stroke back on track this week.  In our last four games, excepting J Will, our high minute guys are shooting 30%.  I expect this week they'll revert to the mean, back in the mid 40%.  

Our winning formula remains play full "halfs" not quarters and get back to the 50% solution out shooting our opponents.  Love to see that happen!

SCU Men's Basketball - The Fifty Percent Solution

 

 

                                                                                                                     

We are literally "minutes" away from from an 9-0 start.  It's crazy that we've been able to get our record to 6-3.  How?  By burning the candle at both ends.  The Short roster means heavy minutes and having to test our Freshman bench well before their "midterm" of the season.

Despite all of this, amazingly, we lead all our opponents in every major stat category except as we all know; rebounding.  It's not the total (311 - 307), but it's the offensive rebounding that has done the damage (111) over 12 per game. It's sorta like adding those to our turnovers per game giving way to second chances to score.  

In my mind, it's not the rebounds that are the main culprit, but rather the tired legs shooting mid first and mid second half that has been key to falling short.  Even against LA Tech with Ken Lofton, the 6'7" 275 lbs, second coming of the "round mound of rebound" (Charles Barkley) we had 3 to 4 good looks to steal that game.  Tired legs down the stretch make hitting key shots harder.  It's frustrating for both season ticket holders and coaches to see those shots, usually money, miss.   

So, we just have to go with the "Fifty Percent Solution."  Shoot 'em out the gym.  In our six wins, our shooting average is 54.5%.  Our worst 47% - our best 61%.  We shot 39% in our three losses.  Our opponents FG average is about 40%.  Even though we have struggled giving up offensive rebounds, our defense and ball movement to get good looks has carried us to some very good wins. 

We will face the same challenges throughout the rest of our preseason and WCC schedule. Getting Josip Vrankic back healthy will be huge for us, but will still leave us undersized versus most of our opponents.  He can score both inside, at the elbow, and most importantly find the right open shooter when he kicks the ball back out.  It will be tough to win the rebounding battles.  By sustaining our defensive pressure and pushing the ball up the court and finding our shooters in their spots and in rhythm will maximize our points per possession and create the 50% solution.  

The next two games will test us in all of the above.  Mt. St. Mary's is not highly ranked, but they are tall and experienced.  They have a nice combo of a quick 5'10" guard and three 6'9" front line players who can score at the rim.   If we can hang in there rebounding and push the ball we will have a great opportunity to win with our 50% game plan.

Our game at Cal will be a much tougher challenge.  They are fresh off wins over Fresno State and Oregon State. Their win over Fresno was interesting.  The Fresno 7'0" center, Orlando Robinson, scored his 25 points, but the Cal defense held off the other shooters.  Cal won the game by shooting 44% from three; five of those in the second half.  Same drill for us.  Limit second chance points, pressure the 3 ball, and score in transition.  This would be a perfect time for the 50% solution to show up and get a great road win.  

Going 2-0 this week would bring us to 8-3 and that's way better than 50-50.  We just need the 50% solution to happen in 75% of our remaining games and take our chances on, dare I say a Post Season invite?