Santa Clara Men's Basketball - No Shows and Shootouts

 

                                                                                                                                  

The anticipation for the games versus Gonzaga and St. Mary's at Leavey couldn't have been more hyped after the Broncos opened the WCC with two wins on the road over Loyola and Pepperdine.  Ticket sales were brisk and even the media paid uncharacteristic attention to Santa Clara for these regular season games.  Normally, the only ink we get has been related to the NBA draft as a result of back to back first round selections.  Even Bronco legend Steve Nash showed up!  

Fortunately and unfortunately two SRO crowds witnessed two "No Shows."  The first by Gonzaga and the second by the Broncos.   

We beat Gonzaga 77-76 breaking an 11 year drought and Coach Sendek's first win against the Bulldogs.  Our team was resilient, played together, weathered two second half runs, and in the end it was a fade away three bouncer on the rim by Adama Bal that became the winning basket with 4.6 seconds left.  Bedlam and a $5,000 fine ensued as students and fans stormed the floor and soaked up a momentous victory! 

These games have gone against us so many times.  Fortunately, however, in all honesty when you do a deeper dive into the game we took advantage of a season low performance by the Zags, in 3 point shooting (2-20), offensive rebounds (7), total rebounds (31), assists (8) and blocked shots (2).  

Give credit to our hustle and defense, but in reality they missed a lot of open looks.   If that wasn't enough, the Zags choked twice with under 14 seconds left.  With the Zags leading by one, Ryan Nembhard, an 83% free throw shooter missed the front end of a 1-1.  Our Adama Bal drove the length of the court and scored the go ahead basket and was fouled for a 1 point lead with 4.6 seconds left.  Bal, an 86% free throw shooter, then missed the free throw.  Next, the Zags most experienced player Anton Watson snagged the rebound and turned to go up court, left his feet and had no where to throw the ball except back to Adama Bal - choke number two - game over.  If not for our 18 turnovers, we win this game by at least 10.  We'll take it!

Unfortunately, it was our turn to no show against St. Mary's.  We produced season lows in 3 point shooting, rebounds, assists, on our way to a 23 point loss that wasn't even that close.  It marked the 6th time in the past 10 games we had more turnovers than assists.  Bronco fans were touting our perceived matchup advantages but Randy Bennett knew better.  Their first offensive play set the mismatch tone, going right to Joshua Jefferson vs Johnny O'Neil down low.  Jefferson backed him down for a four foot easy score.  It was a SMC clinic in the first 10 minutes of this game.  They carved us up like a cardiac surgeon and backed that up with a lockdown defense to lead by 30.  Tough to watch.  

For those watching, key differences in execution were easy to see.  St. Mary's on offense uses perhaps the best high ball screens in the WCC.  Their screeners actually trap defenders time after time, creating mismatches for easier shots.  On offense, our high ball screens are vapor; trapping no one.  SMC just shut us down.  Our two best players, Bal and Marshall had a total of five points.  Five.  Some say SMC point guards Mahaney and Marcuilionis aren't good shooters or playmakers.  How about their assists to turnover ratio of 4:1 against us.  They had ZERO turnovers the first half.  The overriding question is why did our guys look so lost?   We've been able to shoot our way out of some of these, but not this one. 

The SMC blowout loss was followed by two "shootouts."  Bronco fans were rightfully worried how the team would respond to the upcoming road games at Pacific and at home against Portland.  Two teams at the bottom of the WCC.  To our teams credit, we prevailed in both shootout games.  Put in perspective, Pacific is last in FG % and second to last in FG% defense.  Portland is seventh in FG% defense and eighth in 3 Pt. FG% defense.  In other words, both teams don't shoot or defend well at all.  

At Pacific we shot it well and dominated the worst rebounding team in the WCC.  We made 15 three's, had 21 assists to go with 18 second chance points.  Same story against Portland at home.  We had 16 three's, 28 assists, and 14 offensive rebounds.  These were two much needed wins.  While this all sounds impressive, we've had only one game all season versus a top 100 ranked opponent where we had 20 assists and that was Gonzaga.  It highlights lingering open issues for us to compete and beat better teams. 

Turnovers.  We are near the bottom in the WCC (7th) in TO's per game and assists to turnover ratio.  This includes having feasted on 49 total assists the past two games versus the last place teams which skew those results to look better.  We have two primary ball handlers - Brenton Knapper and Adama Bal.  Point guard is neither one's natural position.  That's an issue but not the critical one.  Our offensive execution needs help.  Our screens, cuts, motion and low post positioning needs to generate open looks and mismatches.  When we don't screen well, mismatches don't develop.  Why set screens if you don't intend to get someone?  We then revert to one on one play and get stuck in a bad position late in the clock and turn the ball over or face a tough shot.  

Our on ball defense.  We get caught in too many switches on ball screens and have to play catchup to recover that results in tough matchups.  Witness SMC took us apart in the half court and against Portland where our stated game plan was to force them into shooting 2 point shots, not three's.  Well, we got caught by their high screens and Portland torched us by making 10 of their first 12 three point shots.   Another side effect is excess fouling due to being out of position leading to opponents free throws.  Portland shot 29 free throws.

A bright spot in league has been our rebounding.  We are second in all categories including offensive rebounding at nearly 11 per game.  Those are key, in that they offer second  possessions and opportunities for second chance points. 

Don't get me wrong.  We have really good players.  A record of 14-7, given our lack of fundamentals and consistency is very good considering the most difficult schedule in Coach Sendek's tenure.  Our strength of schedule ranking is 75.  USF is at 270, SMC 55 and Gonzaga 60, we are in the mix.   

We have ten games remaining with four of those against the top three. Two against USF, one at Gonzaga and one at St. Mary's.  Six against the rest.  Two versus San Diego, one at Portland, one against Pacific, one with LMU and one versus Pepperdine all at Leavey.   

Five at Home and five away.  

It will take six more wins to position us for the WCC tourney and postseason.  One upset win and no upset losses would be perfect.  There no time left for "No Shows" and we'll take our chances with "shootouts."  

Go Broncos!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - "There's No Place Like Home"

                                                                                                                 

At 11-6 overall and 2-0 in the WCC, the Broncos have a chance to prove Dorothy right in "There's No Place Like Home."  This week it will take some real "wizardry" to knock off either Gonzaga tonight or St. Mary's on Saturday or both.

GU leads the West Coast Conference in scoring (84.9), field goal percentage (.498), rebounds per game (42.5, 13th in NCAA Div. 1), and assist to turnover ratio (1.40).  The Zags feature three outstanding guards, three high quality bigs, and a defense ranked 37th in the NCAA.  So far, in league they've handed out 22 assists per game and have six players who average in double figures.  If this is a "down" year for Gonzaga, most every team would take their production. They have won 22 of the past 23 games at Leavey. In addition, a win would give Mark Few 700 wins, making him second in NCAA history.  They will be motivated.  I can't think of a better time for us to send the Dogs howling back to Spokane!

It doesn't get much easier Saturday vs St. Mary's.  The Gaels are patient, experienced, and efficient on offense with 18 assists per game complemented by the 19th ranked defense in the country. They also have three veteran, explosive guards who break down defenses and three bigs who can attack the rim and rebound.  The Gaels have won 13 of the last 16 against us.

The Broncos two WCC road wins have been gritty; a good thing.  We have four starters shooting it at near a 50% clip with Bal and Marshall at 50% and 43% from 3 point. Frankly, our shooting has been the main reason for the two W's.  LMU took St. Mary's to the last minute losing by 4.  The Gaels are good, but beatable.  We need to prove we can play with these teams.  Send a message; not an S.O.S.

Somehow, we need to right the ship on assists, turnovers, and defensive rebounding.  In the WCC, we are near last in turnovers and the middle in assists.  Our opponents this week dish out twice as many assists as we do.

Our overall rebounding is OK, but we give up too many offensive boards leading to second chance points.  This is a "tall" task this week.  We are thin at guard and been suffering from more turnovers than assists.  At center, our guys have been banged up.  Tilly is now playing healthy, but Caffaro is still not 100%.  This causes us to go smaller, which against our two opponents this week, is an issue.  If only Cam Tongue was 6'10" because he is a warrior at 6'7".

The savior needs to be our defense.  The Zags and Gael guards are some of the best in the conference breaking down defenses off screen and rolls and are outstanding penetrators, beating defenses off the dribble for easy buckets or kick outs to open shots.  If we can beef our defense up and cause poor shooting nights for them on the road, we'll have a great chance.

Let's put these two games in perspective.  In the NCAA NET ranking system used for tournament selection, these are Quad 1 games.  These games count the most for post season consideration.  We are not supposed to win these.  Quad 1 losses won't kill our postseason chances.  It's losses to the other WCC teams that will hurt the most.  We have eight of those other games remaining.

Winning those eight would make our record 19-12.  One upset would be huge for our WCC and post season chances.  Two would be monstrous.  If we have 12 losses, about eight could be Quad 1.  Our current strength of schedule rank is 78th.  If we beat the teams we are supposed to and add one upset or two, we could improve this ranking.

I'd love to see our team just go for it.  The crowd will be loud.  So play hard, play free, play to our strengths, and let it fly.  After all, "There's no Place Like Home!"

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - No Secrets

 

                                                                                                                      

After a 9-6 preseason record, we still don't know what this team can become as we open WCC league play at Loyola and then, Pepperdine.  Even though we aren't sure, opposing coaches know what their game plan will be for us.  There are no secrets in college basketball.  Game videos lay bare the good, the bad, and the ugly for every team.  You can look at stats all you want, but on game night it's all about attitude, adjustments, and execution.  I mean LMU beat Gonzaga in Spokane last year so anything can happen!

This year's WCC provides our Broncos with perhaps the best opportunity in the past 10 years to make some noise and rise from consecutive third place finishes to something higher.  The Dogs are still there, but their bite is softer.  The Gaels are good, but their armor has soft spots to attack.  The Dons are off to a great start, but we've shown we can handle them. 

We lie in wait like the rest of the WCC mushy middle.  The average NCAA ranking of this group is 220.  Not stellar.  None of these stats really matter.  It's all about "who" shows up on game night.  So far, for this season, that's certainly is the case for the Broncos.   

We are at our best when we move the ball up the court and get quick action to an open shooter for a good shot.  The problem is that you have to get the rebound to start this flow.  In defensive rebounding, we are at the bottom of the WCC teams we'll face.  You need the ball to run.  When we have to settle into a half court offense, we struggle.  The ball stops moving and we try to dribble into traffic resulting in too many turnovers or poor shots. We are near the bottom of the WCC teams in turnovers as well.  Tough combination for W's.

You'd think it would be simple to fix these.  Unfortunately not.  Our roster is thin in ball handlers and our bigs have not been healthy for rebounding.  We're pretty small when they are out of the lineup; exacerbating rebounding.  These roster issues cause us to put players in roles that aren't their normal skill set.

Opposing coaches will try to exploit the above.  You have witnessed it in the past few games with teams overplaying our passing lanes and collapsing the middle when we try to drive.  They get through our screens easily preventing easier open looks; case in point, our game vs Yale which resulted in our lowest shooting percentage of the season.  No secrets. 

I think we'll need 10 wins, including an upset or two, to be in a position for post season consideration.  This team is certainly capable of this and more.  Unfortunately, 10 wins with no upsets might cause our NET ranking to drop since the lower part of the WCC teams rankings are so low.  The team that beat Oregon, Stanford, Washington, and Duquesne needs to show up.  Coaches will need make the adjustments quickly and decisively.   A decade long opportunity awaits.  

Here's hoping we can answer the call!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Focus on the "Cons" to Get More "Pros"

 

                                                                                                                        

After 14 pre-season games, we've seen what kind of performances our new roster makeover is capable of.  They are capable of four high quality NET ranking wins on the road and capable of two losses to beatable teams outside the top 150.  They are capable of shooting a higher percentage from the three point line than from the free throw line.  They are capable of 20 assist games and 26 turnovers games.   So far, the thing we need to be more capable of is consistency which breeds confidence.  

All things considered, 9-5 is pretty good.  IMHO, 11-4 was probably our best pre-season record.  Our record includes wins and losses due injuries to opponents and to us.  All teams have injuries to starters, but our bench has not been capable enough, in some of the losses, to compensate.  

It's harder to win when you pass the ball more to your opponents than your teammates.  In our last five games, we have 82 turnovers against 72 assists resulting 93 points against us.  In spite of this, we were in position to win two more of those games because we don't give up and can really shoot the ball.  We have six players that shoot better than 50% from the field.  We have three players who shoot over 40% from three point range; including Carlos Marshall with a gaudy 49% from three.  This is an elite level on par with the top five ranked NCAA teams.  

To fans watching, it looks like we try to do too much off the dribble in traffic and get balls knocked away.  One other consequence of dribble, dribble is other players stop cutting and moving to make themselves available for an open shot as our opponents defense collapses to stop drives. We are at our best when the ball moves to quality open shots, which as you can see from above, we are quite capable of knocking down.

Consistency moving the ball many times starts with capable guard play.  This is still a work in process with so many new players.  As an example, we've had different guards each year for the past four seasons that were new to the Sendek system.  Not easy.  Lately we've settled on Brenton Knapper at point with Adama Bal handling late in games.  Knapper has shown so far to be capable in this role with improved shooting and few turnovers.

So, what's the key to this elusive consistency?  Pick your favorite hall of fame basketball coach and you'll read there isn't a secret sauce.  Bulls Coach Phil Jackson's said of the Michael Jordan led teams, "You prepare hard for every game and once it starts you have to let go of the outcome."

In this season, we've certainly seen outcomes that are both exciting and traumatizing.  Sometimes the simplest approach works.  As players do the things they know they are capable of and rely on your teammates for the same.  Don't just fall in love with the three, dribble into traffic, and move the ball to your teammates for their most capable play.  It feels like when we try to do too much we end up with too little.  

This afternoon versus Yale will test all of the above.  They are a St. Mary's style team.  They play slow, play tough on defense, and will try to dissect us in the half court exploiting the mismatches they create.  Good news for us is Tilly will be back and Caffaro is now healthy after nagging injuries.

So to get more Pros, let's focus on the Cons.  Consistency, Confidence in what we are capable of, Connecting with our teammates on the floor and, maybe as a Consequence of that, we'll put ourselves in Consideration for a post season invite!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Are We On The Rebound?

                                                                                                        

If the Broncos are going to make some noise in the WCC and have any shot at the post season, we need to rebound from our rebounding.  The sordid details are that in our last four games, we've given up 58 offensive rebounds resulting in 54 second chance points.  Add to that 64 turnovers in those four games resulting in 64 point off turnovers.  Huge.

Granted this team is a work in process, but we need to find a Chairman of the Boards.   Someone with a "tude".  We're big enough, but we need to play big enough.   Maybe a guy like Cam Tongue.   He scores tough inside and has half the bigger guys rebounds in one-third of their minutes.  

To be fair, we get a rebound, but don't secure it and have it swatted away.  Opposing coaches are smart learning that officials look up for rebounding fouls, but not down when control is being established.  It's hard to watch small guards slap the ball away from seven footers. 

IMHO, a similar issue with our turnovers.   Feisty defenses hold us and slap at the ball off the dribble where refs won't make that call.  They know we are thin at point guard and totally overplay passing lanes daring us to make the backdoor cut pass which, when we do, is quite successful when our guys keep moving. 

To rebound from our poor rebounding, we need to focus on the power of 10.  Against good teams, when we allow 10 or fewer offensive rebounds and commit 10 or fewer turnovers, we win.   How do we consistently apply the power of 10?   Rebound.  

That's our engine.  Our athletes are really good in the open court from an outlet pass secured by, you guessed it, a rebound.  In our Quad 1 wins, we've pushed the ball up the court and our guys got open lanes to the rim or an uncontested three.  It works.  Open court passes are easier AND prevents us from slogging it away in half court sets where we tend to bog down and turn the ball over. 

 With three games to go before league, we could use three 10's.  We're Hoping for a 11-4 preseason, but 10-5 with our tough schedule gives us the opportunity for a post season nod with 10 or more WCC wins. 

And that's a rebound we are all looking forward to!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Fall Quarter Examinations

 

                                                                                                            

Fall quarter exams ended and grades are due on December 13th.  With the first quarter of the season over, it's time to review our report card.  Some say the numbers don't lie, but with a record of 7-3 the numbers/grades don't seem to add up.  After the New Mexico blowout in Las Vegas, all bets are off.

In our two quad 1* wins vs Stanford and Oregon, we showed "A" student talent.  We shot well, defended well, rebounded and made free throws.  In our three losses, none of that has happened.  Our numbers vs Ohio State:  38% 2 pt, 30% 3 pt, 50 % FT, 15 TO's.  Versus Cal: 38% 2 pt, 34.5% 3 pt, 50% FT, 10 TO's. Versus New Mexico:  our starters were 28% 2 pt, 20% 3 pt, and committed 18 turnovers!  In those games, we gave up 47 second chance points and had more turnovers than assists.  We flunked.  

Going 2-3 vs a top 25, a Pac-12 team, and Kenpom 33 ranked New Mexico isn't terrible.  More alarming is the dispersion/drop-off from the Stanford and Oregon wins.  When we're off, we're really off.  In our three losses, we were outplayed and out scored 126-84 in the first half.  

Every team has bad nights.  Even a purported deeper bench couldn't keep us in those games.  But it was like we weren't even there.  

Some other numbers from Kenpom rankings:  our 2022-2023 record was 23-10.  Of 363 NCAA teams, we ranked 85th overall.  Offense 84, Defense 94, and Tempo (how fast you play) 46th.  This season to date, of course, on a smaller sample size, we rank Overall 142, Offense 129, Defense 174, and Tempo 89.  

Frankly, with the higher level talent than past years and more depth, fans have witnessed a team that has a similar record at this time last year, but with stats that are well below last season.  The numbers do lie in that we have season to date two higher quality wins with stats that would have suggested losses like Ohio State, Cal, and New Mexico. 

Understandable with eight newcomers.  However, most of them come with D1 creds and some of the lapses are just playing ball: defending key players, rebounding, making free throws, protecting the ball and success in the paint.  That I don't get.  Instead, we looked befuddled and stagnant on offense and defense against these tougher opponents.  Maybe we're not running a scheme that takes advantage of these new players' strengths? 

A big important stretch awaits us and there are no layups here.  I'd love 4-2, but would take 3-3.  Last season we lost 4 of 6 games and then went on to win 7 straight.  We need that resiliency.  I think the capability is there and the coaches need to "unlock" it.  

We've finished our first quarter examinations, but there's a lot more homework and big tests ahead.  Whether you grade us a B, C, or D it doesn't really matter.  What matters is pushing for the "A" as in attitude, aggressiveness, that accelerates our drive for an NCAA bid and "Mission  Accomplished!"

* Quad 1: a win at home against teams ranked 1-30, win at a neutral venue against teams in the top 50, and an away win against teams in the Top 75.

Quad 1 wins count the most towards NET ranking which is used for NCAA seeding.

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - The "Marshall" Plan

 

                                                                                                                    

The Broncos will enter Thanksgiving week at 3-0 after a convincing win over Stanford at Maples Pavilion; who were #50 in the Kenpom ranking.  After the first eight minutes, it would have taken a lot of convincing to get Bronco fans to believe we could/would win this game on the road down 12 so early.   How did we do it?  

We instituted the "Marshall Plan!"  Huh, you say?  For history buffs, the Marshall Plan was a program launched in 1948 to stimulate growth, economic production, and trade.  It was a cornerstone of economic success for many years to come.   

The SCU Marshall Plan has as its cornerstone Carlos Marshall III, AKA, "Chef."  He has been the spark plug and stimulus for our team in our first three wins.  The numbers are eye popping:  22 PPG on 71% two point and 67% three point shooting percentages.  These are not typos.  Add six steals and a dozen rebounds and you get the picture. 

However, our Marshall Plan is having the same effect as the economic plan on our players on the court.  The scenario is Carlos starts hot, defenses try to shut him down which opens the floor for his very talented teammates to flourish.  The ball moves, players cut to their spots and Bal, Bryan, O'Neil, Tilly, Caffaro, Benjamin, and Tongue make them pay.  Pick your poison.  Defenses have nowhere to go.  It is not unrealistic that we could have 5 - 6 players average 10 PPG; not to mention the ability of our deeper bench to each score double digits when needed.  Finally, although Carlos Marshall has kick started the plan, his other teammates are just as capable of hot starts as the season progresses.  

I'm not concerned about our offense.  We can shoot even better than we have in the first three games; especially at the rim and free throw line.  While it's possible to just outscore opponents, that's not going to cut it against tougher teams that we will face in the next two weeks.  Our defense needs to get better.  Don't know the game by game coaching strategy on how we handle the high pick and roll, but it needs work.  

This was one of our Achilles Heels last season and we are gong to see it every game as teams know our tendencies.  We have our on ball player go behind screens opening up too many options for our defense to cover.  There will inevitably be nights where our shots don't fall and the defense needs to keep us in the game. We were very fortunate that Stanford missed at least five wide open looks for three's in the second half.  They shot 14% in the second half vs their team average of 39%.  We can't rely on luck.  

We'll learn a lot about our team late next week as we play Oregon (# 36), Alabama (# 5) or Ohio State (# 49) on the road in Florida.   

There's a lot to like about this team.  Size, talent, depth, grit, and effort.  Down twelve at Stanford, they didn't blink.  There's also trust.  The reason our Marshall Plan has worked is no one cares who scores and there's no hesitation moving the ball to the open player.  An example is Johnny O'Neil.  He was 0-7 from the field in his first game as a Bronco.  Since then he's 12-22 (55%) and was 7-13 vs Stanford.  His teammates got him the ball at key moments and he delivered.  

The point is that everyone on this roster can institute the Marshall Plan; not just our Carlos Marshall III.  That's a huge difference from prior years.  The prep for the Florida road trip starts tonight vs Southeastern Louisiana and Monday vs Mississippi Valley State.  It would be great to be 5-0 as we travel to Florida.  I say the Marshall Plan makes that happen!