The 30 year NCAA tourney qualification draught is finally over. Season ticket holders, fans, alums, and students have been exposed to the adrenaline rush of March Madness and can't wait for more! Live the new motto - Run it Back!!!
If it were only that simple. The days of being able to count on returning players to lead the effort to duplicate or exceed one great season with another are gone. Oddly enough, our last back to back returning rosters were in 2023-2024 and 2024-2025. In those seasons, we returned 80% of our scoring and had successful 20 win seasons; which resulted in one post season invite to the NIT.
In the upcoming 2026-2027 season, we will return only 30% of our scoring and 40% of the total minutes played. Analytic sites claim your season's success is highly dependent on how many points and minutes you return from the prior year's roster. Last season we proved that model was not always accurate as we effectively replaced 70% our scoring with new players while on our way to the NCAA tourney. For new roster performance we ranked in the top 5 in the NCAA. Our success may have helped run Randy Bennett out of town to ASU after our convincing series "night-night" win in the WCC tournament.
To our coaches it's mostly noise. You have to build the best roster you can and try to maximize their unique talents within your system and live with the results. The NCAA portal was of shorter duration this off season, but more chaotic. The NCAA has principally lost control over the portal and NIL system. They can control eligibility rules; which are now capped at 5 years max. No credit seasons for redshirts or injuries. Gone are the Drew Timme 7 years at Gonzaga and other abuses with 27 and 30 year olds playing college basketball.
The NCAA is becoming a feckless body hoping to hold on to their cash cow; the NCAA tournament. They've announced there will be 76 qualifying teams this upcoming season. It's an appeasement move to add more power conference teams to the field to prevent them from leaving and forming their own system; much like FBS college football. Some feel the NCAA's new plan will accelerate this transition as small conference winners and mid-majors get pushed down the seeding ladder to "play in games" to get into the final field of 64. It's all about huge TV contracts and sponsors rather than equitable competition.
The portal is a nightmare. High Major college coaches are enjoying the lack of transparency for NIL deals as well as the NCAA's cursory approval "review". Several of the top 15 programs have "bought" players back who declared for the NBA draft by paying them NBA first round money to stay and play in college to win the NCAA tournament. In the NBA and NFL, all teams can see details of new contracts as they are made public days after signing. Not the NCAA, all secret.
Moreover, there are concerns the "student - athlete" model is being eroded and compliance of maintaining academic eligibility is lacking. Why go to class when their $5-6 million NIL deal is what's important?
I expect more lawsuits to come as transfer tampering, NIL multi-season contract disputes, compensation for transfers paid to schools whose players leave early for another school before their contract ends, agent abuses impacting players, and various other sordid schemes. There are already instances where transfers were offered NIL money only to have the school renege at the last minute because a better player accepted.
Coaches used to plan on two to three years to develop talent. Now it's perform or goodbye. Buying talent is easier for winning quickly; the only metric some donors care about. Oddly enough, IMHO, this could work to the Broncos advantage as more 4 and some 5 star players from power schools know SCU's proven rep for developing talent into NBA Pros or high level Euro programs. According NBA data, since the 2022 draft around 40 mid-major players were drafted in the first or second round. It's a viable option for overlooked players to look at programs like the Broncos.
All the above chaos aside, our new roster looks very intriguing. Five guards (6'0" - 6'5"), five forwards (6'6 - 6'9"), and three centers with 7'0" ++ shot blocking wingspans. That's 13, with the NCAA max being 15. Room to add another key player or a summer surprise?
Expect a similar playing style to last season. Fly paper pressure man to man, opportunistic shot selection in the flow, power rebounding with an emphasis on offensive second chance points, and high pick and roll action to exploit resulting mismatches; all the while using a 9-10 player rotation.
"Run it back" has already started. The returning players are in the weight room and gym and will be joined shortly by the recruits and transfers for summer workouts and school. We can do our part to run it back as well. Get our friends and neighbors to buy tickets to get Leavey as loud and proud as possible.
And that will be something our players will feel the energy to "Run it Back" to the 2027 NCAA tourney!
