Santa Clara Men's Basketball - There's No Place Like Home - But It's Time To Be Road Warriors

 

                                                                                                                 

 

The Leavey Center has been great to the Broncos and completely inhospitable to our opponents.  

Our 12-0 home record reflects the pride and drive of the coaches and players to compete on every possession with full energy.  We saw this on display last Wednesday against USF generating 14 turnovers and 12 steals resulting in 25 points, all while shooting 51% from 2pt and 46% from 3pt range.  

Their play is chaotic and frenzied with relentless ball pressure end to end.  They are both mindful and mindless; knowing where the ball needs to go for the best shot.  If the shots don't fall or we commit silly turnovers or fouls, they just "play on" to the next possession; letting go of what just happened to make something happen.  It's not pretty, but it's working.  A record of 18-5 and 9-1 in league is proof.  

While "there's no place like home" we need to be stout road warriors as five of the next eight games are away.  A well known warrior training code is the "only easy day was yesterday."  Wednesday was a great home win versus nemesis rival USF and today at LMU will be another stern test.  LMU is the first of three road games in a row.  It's much like the six consecutive away games early in the season where we were 3-3.  The team at this point in the season is much better, but the challenge is just as great.  LMU has been a thorn in our side by beating us in LA last season.  They relish the spoiler role as their season has not been up to their expectations. 

The other road games are at Pacific, Washington State, St. Mary's, and USF.  Home games include  Seattle, Gonzaga, and Oregon State.  No need to break these games down, they're all hard.  After 30 years of waiting, there's a lot of banter and hype about potential NCAA bids for this team.  The tournament is certainly in play and is the stated goal of both the Coaches and players.  Going 6-2 in the remaining games with only potential losses to Gonzaga and St. Mary's should earn the at-large bid or we get the automatic invite by winning the WCC Tourney.  We can win ALL these games.  

One thing we know, there's no quit in this group.  They will win or lose with the same energy; shots falling or not.  Underdogs we might be, but this team represents the true spirit of a Bronco - wild, untamed, spirited, and a powerful force to be reckoned with!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Have We Learned to Finish What We Started?

 

                                                                                                                 

The Broncos are on a heater at the moment, 7-1 in the WCC, unbeaten in Leavey, and in second place in the WCC.  That's right second place; the first time since the 2006 2007 season.  If feels good to be ahead of SMC.  

In our last eight games, we've closed out every second half lead with the exception of Gonzaga in Spokane.  This has been a major improvement since difficult late game losses to St. Louis, Arizona State, and Loyola Chicago.  It demonstrates growth occurring as this young roster has learned from game level competition.  It appears we've learned to "finish what we've started" and, in some cases, adding to first half leads.  

This past week's wins against Pacific and St. Mary's were great examples.  Against Pacific, we were outshot from both 2pt and 3pt range and outrebounded.  Yet, we created 21 turnovers resulting in 28 points.  Add 8 steals and 4 blocked shots surging to a 20 point lead with less than 2 minutes left. 

Our win against St. Mary's was a war of attrition.  Hand to hand combat.  We snapped a 4 year losing streak, holding them to their season lows in 2pt and 3 pt FG% and FT% through hard nosed unrelenting ball pressure building a 16 point lead with 12:49 to go.  

The Gaels fought back to get within 2 points with just 3 minutes left.  We had seen this movie many times before against SMC who are great at closing out games.  Not this time.  Christian Hammond, Allan Graves, and Sash Gavalyugov calmy made key shots and clutch free throws to close out and finish the game to the delight of the riotous Leavey crowd.  

The stunned look on Randy Bennett's face was priceless and one we'd love to see again in Moraga on February 25th.  The boisterous team celebration in the locker showed the real affection these players have for each other and the coaching staff; culminating with an entire team Aladdin's Lamp style group "head rub" for Coach Sendek.   

A great win to enjoy, but let's not get ahead of ourselves with 10 games remaining - four are at Leavey and six on the road.  While every game is difficult, four of the next five games are away at USD, LMU, Pacific, and Washington State.  None of those road teams have been very kind to us.  We face USF, Seattle, and Gonzaga at home, then USF and St. Mary's away, finishing the league schedule at home versus Oregon State. All of these games will be played with just two days rest including travel.

With a 16-5 record, post season bids are in play.  For the Broncos, most likely it will come from the NIT as the NCAA at-large bids are rare.  Conference champions consume 31 slots.  At-large offers 37 openings, however, most are gobbled up by the Power 5 conferences.  For example, in 2025 there were only 3 bids awarded to mid-majors.  It can happen for the Broncos, but it will most likely take 23 wins or win the WCC tournament.  Both remain in play. 

To achieve the above, one thing we must continue to do is to "finish what we started!" 

 

  

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - The "Fuzzy Logic" Of Our Winning Strategies

 

                                                                                                              

In a world where decisions are being analyzed and driven by AI, the Broncos seem to be using both AI and a technique known as fuzzy logic.  

Through 19 games our opponents have shot the ball better than we have from the 2pt range nine times and from the 3pt range 10 times.  Our opponents have made 94 more free throws than we have. 

We are ranked 5th in FG% and 8th in FG% defense in conference.  From 3pt distance we are 10th and our 3pt defense 7th.  We have taken 100 more 3pt shots than all our WCC opponents except USF.  We are 10th in the number of free throws made and 8th in free throw percentage.  We are ranked 7th in overall defense behind the perennial leaders St. Mary's (1) and Gonzaga (2). 

Based upon the above, what rational person would believe the Broncos are 14-5 and 5-1 in the WCC?  Few, even Mark Few...That's because it might seem illogical; except for users of fuzzy logic.  The principles of fuzzy logic are rooted in the ability to reason with vague, imprecise information and partial truths and apply those in new ways to gain better control or performance.  

Here's are some examples of how the Broncos use it.  

The Broncos would love to shoot better and have been inconsistent, but through aggressive defense and pressure have made 175 steals.  We have more steals than our opponents in 14 of our 19 games; generating lots of defensive stops and more possessions where we can score easier baskets.  While opponents are shooting better than us, they are doing it with fewer possessions and, more importantly, scoring fewer points. 

We have generated 100 more offensive rebounds than our opponents, ranked 5th best in the entire NCAA, generating substantial second chance points near the paint.  This capability keeps us in games when shooting is off.  Add to this 84 blocked shots (+23) and its another strength we exploit that limits opponents possessions.  Hard to score if you don't have the ball.

We foul a lot in this aggressive pressure system.  Some of the fouls lack discipline.  Due to our fouling, our opponents have made 94 more free throws than we have.  That's not great, but free throws are usually a higher percentage, but a lower value shot in terms of potential points per possession versus a team shooting and making an open 3pt shot.  Logic.

Whether it's a real game plan, analytics, or by accident, so far it's working.  Coaches seem focused on these metrics that are utilizing the skills of our entire roster.  You can make this work with a 10 deep roster where any player from the bench can go off.  Just ask Sash Gavalyugov, now known as Mr. 37; scoring 37 points versus LMU.

Despite all the above offensive statistics, we are second in the WCC in points per game at 83 just behind Gonzaga.  We are 3rd in turnover margin at +2.6 per game and 2nd in assists/turnovers ratio. We are protecting and moving the ball better than in seasons past.  It's a tsunami of energy that just keeps on coming at teams and an attitude where, while we may not have a good night on offense, we will try to suffocate you on defense.   BTW, we have also had nine blowout wins when both our offense and defense were clicking.  Need more data, just ask LMU Coach Stan Johnson who left Leavey wondering "what just happened" in our 103-72 pounding after they beat a good USF team two nights prior.

The evidence shows our roster is performing better than in past seasons.  According to analytics' sites we have three players; Jake Ensminger, Alan Graves, and Elijah Mahi that are ranked in the top 10 in performance in the WCC - a first.  Only Gonzaga has more.  St. Mary's has one. 

Fuzzy logic aside, this is real.  The success is also fragile, in that we are still a young team and can and will probably succumb to an unexpected loss or two.  We may also pull off a big upset or two.  One goal that isn't fuzzy, is to keep winning and that's logic that we as season ticket holders and fans are banking on...

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Could the 2025-2026 Roster Be the Best In the Herb Sendek Era?

 

                                                                                                                                

We are 17 games into the 2025-2026 season, yet at 13-4 and 4-0 in the WCC, the above headline is a relevant question to explore.  There has been significant upgrades to facilities, scheduling, and a lot more winning over the past nine seasons.  Add to this, two first round NBA picks and three NIT appearances and there's not much doubt that the program is on the rise.  Many grouse that we're still lingering in 3rd or 4th in the WCC and are without an NCAA bid. 

After the NCAA lawsuit settlement, college basketball media analysts forecasted that the power conferences and other high major programs would suffocate mid-majors with their NIL funding; enabling buying the best players and leaving scraps for mid-majors.  Time will tell.  However, a critical potentially overlooked factor may work out to be an advantage for some mid-majors like the Broncos.  That intangible is that the global talent available for NCAA basketball has arguably never been bigger and better; perhaps making scouting and recruiting acumen more important than player development.  

If schools can't plan on keeping recruits from high school or from the portal more than one season, it's imperative to get players who have solid skills now.  Redshirts will still be a valuable tool for another year of skill building, but still may need NIL money.  The options appear to be more like the Podziemski formula; one and done.  

As crazy as it seems, our roster, IMHO, through 17 games is the best of the Sendek tenure.  It's deeper, with a strong blend of experience and young emerging talent that's learning on the job (court) and producing results albeit with some steep highs and lows.  Our 11 PPG margin of victory supported by 9 steals/game and 5 blocks/game are standouts versus all the other Sendek Bronco teams.  

Despite an inconsistent offense at times, the emergence of Christian Hammond, Alan Graves, and, now Thierry Darlan to go along with the steady scoring of Elijah Mahi is keeping us in games and has fueled 7 blowouts.  Add surgical rebounding and assists from Jake Ensminger and Brenton Knapper handling the ball and we're legit.  On defense, we are really good at times, but stopping the ball and defending the wide open three's need work.  Our offensive rebounding is stellar, ranked # 9 in the NCAA.  Alan Graves is a beast on the glass and a major thief, leading the team with 33 steals.

This team plays for each other and may not sound like a big deal, but players on recent teams seemed to care more about their own stats. This team shows its chemistry through assists numbers that are better than past seasons; including the 24 against USD.  It's not all pretty, lots of bonehead plays and missed opportunities, but are all part of the learning process.  It's amazing to think we "should be" 15-2 after two late game give aways.

Don't get me wrong, there are LOTS of things to clean up.  If we don't, there will be trouble ahead as we head into the meat of the WCC schedule starting Thursday at Gonzaga and then Saturday at Leavey versus a tough LMU team.  Anybody can beat anybody.  I've included a Kenpom analysis of Four Keys to Success Factors data for the top WCC teams through 4 games.  These four factors are highly correlated to team success and highlights the difficulty of our WCC schedule. 

	Team eFG% (scaled) Offensive Rebound % Turnover Margin Opponent eFG% (scaled) Gonzaga ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ 52.4% ▇▇▇▇▇▇ 12.9% ▇▇▇▇▇  +4.3 ▇▇▇ 38.8% Saint Mary’s ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ 47.3% ▇▇▇▇▇ 12.4% ▇▇  −0.5 ▇▇▇ 39.9% Santa Clara ▇▇▇▇▇▇ 46.7% ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ 14.2% ▇▇▇▇  +2.5 ▇▇▇▇ 43.8% San Francisco ▇▇▇▇▇▇ 44.4% ▇▇▇▇▇ 11.3% ▇▇▇  −0.9 ▇▇▇▇ 41.0% Seattle U ▇▇▇▇▇▇ 46.8% ▇▇▇▇▇ 10.1% ▇▇▇▇  +3.3 ▇▇▇▇ 41.0% LMU ▇▇▇▇▇▇ 46.6% ▇▇▇ 10.0% ▇▇▇  +0.9 ▇▇▇▇ 40.9%

One thing for sure, it's not boring basketball.  We can be pathetic and unstoppable in the span of a few minutes.  For now, we've been more unstoppable than pathetic and that's a trend we'd love to see this roster build on!

Note:  eFG% or Effective Field Goal Percentage is a calculation of a teams made three point and two point shots divided by total field goal attempts.  

  

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Mid Major Programs Dollars And Sense

 

                                                                                                        

Let's face it being a mid-major program before the NCAA settlement and competing for NCAA Tournament bids was very difficult.  Your chances of getting to the tournament were about 4% unless you won your conference tournament; as 34 of the 37 at-large bids went to High Major teams.  

The NIL world has only upped the ante and created even more separation between the High Majors and Mid Majors.  Since 2015, only Gonzaga (9) and St. Mary's (2) have won the WCC Tournament and the automatic bid that comes with it.  The current WCC is a one bid league although St. Mary's and USF have recently received rare at-large nods. 

For Santa Clara, and other WCC teams not named Gonzaga, it's a matter of dollars and sense; not just cents.  A good number of the ACC, Big 12, Big 10, and Big East teams are spending $8.5 million just on rosters.  According to the NIL NCAA databases, estimates of the WCC roster allocations range from $4-6 Mil for Gonzaga, $1-3 Mil for USF and SCU with St. Mary's, LMU, and Pepperdine in the $500k-1.5 million range.  It's still gobs of money.  

As far as I know, all of the current and next season WCC teams have opted into the settlement, meaning they plan to invest.  Each school will have a strategy for the level of competitiveness they are willing to fund.  SCU has been pretty quiet about the goals for Men's Basketball other than a few statements from Heather Owen and the administration that we want to make NCAA tournaments.  Timetables for NCAA bids have not been stated.  We know the current wait has been 30 years. 

Each school has to evaluate whether the pay for play model not only makes sense, but dollars and cents.  For one WCC team, Gonzaga, it was transformative and began 25 years ago.  It began with a "Cinderella" NCAA bid in 1999 and is now a 25 year streak.  The numbers are impressive.

Their enrollment has nearly tripled.  SAT scores, student diversity, and GPA's rose as a result of admission selectivity.  Their endowment tripled and University budget grew from $73 million to over $320 million.  Athletic revenue rose from $250,000 to to $ 8.6 Million.  Fundraising was able to fund a $60 million student center and many new academic facilities.  Their NCAA tournament revenue units have generated over $51 million to the WCC with the lion's share to the Zags.  These numbers are through 2020 when Covid hit.  They are surely much larger now. Clearly, the Zags' Administration's decision and commitment at all levels to become a top 25 team from scratch has paid enormous dividends. 

SCU chose a different path and has been playing catchup in athletics for the past 25 years.  The hiring of Coach Sendek 10 years ago was the step needed to regain footing in Men's Basketball. A lot of progress and winning has occurred, but there is still much to do and not just on the court. 

For SCU and others, Athletics and Men's Basketball budgets must rise.  According to the EADA database, as of 2024 our Men's Basketball budget was $5.6 mil which would rank 4th behind LMU $8.6mil, St. Mary's $6.8m, and USF $6.22m.  Gonzaga is not included since they are leaving the WCC.  I'm sure all of the above are now spending more since Universities are allowed to spend up to $20.5 mil from their operating budgets on Athletics.   

The new world of NCAA Men's Basketball requires much more than just on court excellence.  Key areas, to name a few, include fundraising through active use of NIL collectives, implementing player promotional, marketing, branding and retention programs to expose players to NIL opportunities from Alums and local companies, and to keep top talent from transfer portal poaching.  A number of schools are exploring multi-year NIL deals to protect their best players.  Expand recruiting pipelines and staff to find talent in Euro pro leagues, Asia, Africa, the G league and exploit JUCO's and Division II under the radar talent.  SCU also needs to find ways to energize students and the local Santa Clara residents to come to Leavey.  Not easy, but essential.  Top talent wants loud and proud fans in the stands. 

One example of a success story is coach Eric Olen, who coached UCSD and their move from Division II to Division 1 using four Division II players.  After the three year required waiting period for post season, he went 30-5 on the way to the Tritons first NCAA Division 1 tourney.  He now coaches at New Mexico, who recently dismantled us on their home court.  Our pipeline has been successful finding underutilized High Major players and turning them into stars and Pros.  After all, talent is the Gold for winning and needs to be creatively mined. 

The Broncos have opted into the new reality and it makes sense that more investments are happening.  We saw solid progress this past Monday by starting WCC league play with a lopsided 102-64 win on the road at Oregon State.  We'd love to see our investments grow and pay dividends by contending for the top spots in the WCC!

Happy New Year to all!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Winning Ugly Can Be Beautiful, But Hard to Sustain

 

                                                                                                                   

The Broncos' stats season to date are a conundrum to say the least.  Out of 350 Division 1 teams, we are ranked # 246 in 3pt shooting, # 204 in turnovers, # 211 in defensive rebounding, # 208 in 2pt defense, and # 343 in the number of free throws attempted per game.  Four of our six players, who have started games, shoot an average of 56% from the free throw line.  

In seven of our 13 games, our opponents have shot better than we have and connected on more 3pt shots.  In 12 of our 13 games, we have committed more fouls than our opponents resulting in 73 more made free throws.  

Looking at these stats, a rational person might expect this team to be 4-9 not 9-4; like the Broncos.  Winning ugly, but quality wins and now ranked # 45 by one popular analytics site after losing three of our last four games.  It's an improbable reality and begs the question; how?

IMHO, it's a team with a roster of 10, and soon to be 11 deep, that just keep coming at you.  We live by the three and die by the three, but offensive rebound with abandon - the 9th best in the NCAA.  Defend aggressively and foul a lot, but also generate lots of turnovers ranked 43rd best and they generate transition layups. That was until last Saturday's loss at the hands of # 328 Loyola Chicago in Santa Cruz which lowered several of the above stats. 

In seven of our wins, our opponents shot season lows from the 3pt arc including North Texas who shot .077 from three.  Our team plays with mayhem and will not settle for protecting leads of 20 only to watch them vaporize as in two of our crazy losses.  Lastly, we have won games with frantic defense at the buzzer; like the North Texas win.  It feels a bit like playground ball that looks like madness by a team who desperately wants to qualify for March Madness.

A win Saturday versus Loyola Chicago would have taken us to 10-3 heading into WCC league play.  Incredibly, we were only 6 total points over three games away from being12-1!  The losses in three of our last four games shows there is a lot to work on and improve.  The good news is we are much healthier now and should get Michigan State 6'6" transfer guard Gherig Normand in the lineup soon.  More ammunition.  

Winning ugly is also very hard to sustain.  Things can change quickly.  Opposing teams will now prep more specifically to exploit our perceived weaknesses.  With the WCC starting for us at Oregon State on December 29th, there will be no secrets.  Not to be too "stat" happy, but the change in performance the last 4 games has been alarming; especially when viewed against the performance of our upcoming WCC opponents. 

On December 3rd, we were 7-1 with the following 12 WCC team rankings in their non conference games.  SCU Rankings:

Offensive Efficiency: 1st, Defensive Efficiency: 3rd, Effective FG %: 7th, Effective FG Defense: 4th, 2 Point FG %: 6th, 3 Point FG %: 7th, 3 point FG Defense %: 3rd, Offensive Rebounding: 1st, Free Throw Rate: 12th, Free Throw Rate Defense: 12th.

Currently, 9-4 as of December 20th, also against the 12 WCC team rankings in non conference games.

Offensive Efficiency: 2nd,  Defensive Efficiency: 5th,  Effective FG%: 9th,  Effective FG% Defense: 9th, 2 Point %: 5th, 2 Point FG% Defense: 9th,  3 point FG%: 10th, 3 point FG% Defense: 7th, Offensive Rebounding: 1st, Free Throw Rate: 12th,  Free Throw Rate Defense: 12th.

I know its a lot to absorb, but the cliff notes show that both our shooting and, more importantly, our defense, have dropped.  So far, we really haven't shot the ball well, but our defense and rebounding held up enough to win games.  There will be no gimmies in league play no matter what the rankings and betting lines will be.

Hopefully, our shooting touch will arrive just in time for league.  For now, we just have to settle for winning ugly and as our 9-4 record shows, if our defense also shows up, that will be a very beautiful thing!

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all and GO Broncos!

 

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - We Could Use A Little "Punch" In Our Game

 

                                                                                                                 

Ten games into this season we've witnessed the full spectrum of what might be possible with this young team.  Important wins over McNeese, Xavier, and Nevada boosted our rankings to their best level in the Herb Sendek era.   Losses by one to St. Louis, then a dogfight win versus Utah Tech was followed a blowout defeat at New Mexico.  All testaments to the growing pains our roster is experiencing.  

The Utah Tech game was illustrative of this team trying to find some consistent rhythm.  Up 20, with 7:53 to go in the first half, a 3:00 minute scoring draught allowed Utah to close the gap to 10 with 4:30 left in the half.  We saw the same thing happen in the second half; where a 20 point lead with 9:10 remaining shrunk to 7 points with 1:30 to go.  

It was right after that, when an Allen Graves thunderous poster dunk led an embarrassed Tech player to throw a blind-side thug punch to Graves's face.  The dust up that occurred immediately after was stopped quickly by coaches and players.  Unfortunately, this was the most energy we saw from the Broncos most of the night.  

In giving up the 20 point lead in the second half, our defense allowed an uncontested transition layup and three consecutive 3pt makes all within a 1:10 span.  Utah had 17 layups for the night.  On offense, we missed five three's during the same span until the Graves' poster dunk.  That stretch, against any team, let alone the 296th ranked Trailblazers, needs immediate remedy.  Overall, we haven't shot the ball great, but we have defended well and won games on poorer shooting nights.  When our effort on defense and off shooting nights collide, it's a show stopper; much like what happened at New Mexico.

That's why I say we need to get back the "punch" in our game.  Not the fisticuff type, just a return to the early season defensive energy stopping the ball and preventing runouts for layups and vigorously contesting three's.  Injuries have been a factor with one of our best defenders, rebounder, floor leader Jake Ensminger and top scorer Christian Hammond sidelined.  With a young team, those injuries are magnified.  That said, 8-2 is a good place to be.  

While every game is important, the next three neutral site games can set the stage for what will be a tough WCC schedule.  We play ASU in Henderson, Nevada. They have size and speed and one of SCU's biggest nemeses, Moe Odum, who has torched us a number of times while at Pepperdine.  Most notably in last year's WCC quarterfinal.  Next is North Texas in Santa Cruz.   Their lineup can give us problems.  They have a good big man and speedy guards who can penetrate and score.  Given our recent games, a big test.  

Winning those two, and then, handling a very winnable game against Loyola Chicago in Santa Cruz, would put us at 11-2, giving us strong momentum heading into league.  In league, we hope to rise to the level where we can "punch" our ticket to the NCAA's and put 30 years of waiting behind us!