SCU Men's Basketball - Lost and Found

 

                                                                                                              

The Broncos may have had the most difficult schedule in their first six WCC games of any team.  Four of the first six games were against the top teams in the WCC.  A 2-4 start looked to be the best case.  What energy and confidence the Broncos may have lost against Gonzaga and St. Mary's, they found in the matchups versus San Diego, BYU, and USF to claw to a 3-3 record.

We started with a good road win at Pacific after a long Covid pause and then on to Gonzaga who put on a clinic in Spokane winning by 32.  The Broncos saw first hand how elite teams handle their business.  It's not just the five star caliber of their athletes - but a complete focus on the task at hand.  Their defense was stifling, their offensive showed us razor sharp passing to cutters going to the rim with a purpose, and an immediate recognition and capitalization of mismatches.  Although a blowout loss, I felt we "learned" something from it. 

We competed better at St. Mary's against IMHO, a team not as talented as ours, but they won the battle with experience and execution both on defense and offense.  It was a good potential "W" that got away. The St. Mary's game showed our team they can be in the conversation of the top three in the WCC and are not overmatched with exception of Gonzaga.   

This gained confidence played out in the USD and BYU victories.  San Diego was on a roll, having won three of their last four games including a close loss to BYU.  The overtime win tested our resolve and we answered the call holding USD scoreless the last 2:30 with P.J. Pipes draining two free throws to seal the deal.  

BYU came to Leavey with wins over both St. Mary's and at USF.  Their rep as a perennial 20 win program and their recent four straight win streak against us hung large like the banners in our rafters.  The game was close all the way until BYU blinked and we struck.  After a strange full court pass by BYU sailed out of bounds, P.J Pipes drilled a deep corner 3 pointer to cut the lead to one..  After trading baskets, with six seconds left, BYU missed a free throw and Jalen Williams made them pay by tear dropping a floater with a second to go for the game winner.  It was great to see the students rush the court to celebrate with the players, rather than heading for the exits after losing another close game.

That "MO" carried over at USF.  We stayed in it with key plays and good opportunities to win, but came up short 88-85.  

Our team has found through this stretch that there is more they can achieve.  We have the offensive tools to win bigger games.  We have to put up great effort not just against the best teams, but all opponents.  Let downs happen, witness BYU losing to Pacific two nights after losing to us.  We are not a tough, physical team, but we are resilient.   We don't quit.  The next step up for us is to learn to close out more games.  Both St. Mary's and USF closed us out by getting the ball to the right players at the right moment - purposeful, not random.   We have soring leaders but what the top teams have is a floor leader or two.  We need someone who sets the tone and gets our players on the same page at the right moments and picks the best option for us to score in tight games.  

We stand at 3-3 with ten league games remaining.  Three more against the top three - St. Mary's and USF both at Leavey and the other at Gonzaga.  Winning at least one of those and not having a letdown against the other seven teams would be huge.  This could get us to  a 21-10 record and no less than 5th in league.  In 5th, we get a first round bye in the WCC tournament and could see a rematch with St. Mary's in the second round.  We would love that!

We can't afford let downs.  Our offense can keep us in games but we need our defense and rebounding to step it up.  Our points allowed is a full 10 points higher per game and we are allowing our opponents 49% FG shooting, up 5% from pre-season.  We can make critical stops like we've done versus USD and BYU, but we need to lock down the easy pick and roll layups and offensive put backs.  

Tonight versus Pacific will be a test.  They're also coming off a big upset of BYU like ours two nights before.  These are the games we can struggle with, hopefully not tonight.  

IF, we can get to 21-10, what we have "lost" may have "found" us in the conversation for a post season NIT.  

SCU Men's Basketball - The Long and Short of It

 

                                                                                                                    

It's already been quite a season for the Broncos.  Since our first three games, we've been long on minutes and short on healthy bodies.  Our 10-5 record is a good start, but we were  "minutes" away from entering league at 12-3.   

The WCC season is a long one and recent indications are that it may turn out to be a short or shorter season for everyone.  The resurgence of COVID adds an ugly wild card to every roster.  Once a roster "bubble" is burst, it affects and can infect many others.  There will be more postponements in addition to this week and, my guess, eventual cancellations as we run deeper into the season and run out of make up times before the March WCC tourney in Las Vegas.  As of today, the plan is to start our WCC league play is against St. Mary's on January 6th at Leavey.

Let's hope for the best.

If there are no COVID cancellations, what could we expect from the Broncos this year in the WCC?  

The consensus of the predictors is SCU is likely to finish 7th or, with upside,  6th.   At the top is the perennial leader Gonzaga.  Even with landing the #1 recruit, Chet Holmgren, I don't think they are as good as last year's team.  They are still VERY GOOD and a top 5 national team.  Odds are for 16-0 in the WCC.  Upset possibilities - BYU, St. Mary's, or USF. 

The most interesting part of the WCC this year will be the battle for the 2, 3, and 4 spots in the standings.  Favorite:  BYU.  They have size, speed, and experience.  St. Mary's badly wants the # 2 spot back.  After an "off" year, they have everyone back, plus key transfers including Matthais Tass from USD, a big piece in their reload.  They have a very consistent offense and the #11 defense in the NCAA.  They hang tough.  I don't feel they are the most explosive or athletic team and that may be their downfall versus USF. 

USF has built a great roster in the transfer portal to go along with two outstanding guards; Bouyea and Shabazz.  They can do it all.  Score, defend, and make the right read to others who can score it.  That, along with a top 17 defense is a great combination.  They have all the tools to push BYU for the second spot.  

I see the Broncos at 9-7.  I'd love to have SCU prove everyone wrong and get to 10-6.  To do this, we have to have to go 5-1 vs LMU, USD, and Pepperdine and sweep Portland and Pacific.  All something we haven't done in the recent past.  To get to 10 wins, we'll have to pull off an upset against St. Mary's or get a win versus USF.  Doable, but hard.  

Our central issue is that we are "short" on "long" players; while the heart of the WCC isn't.  Josip is great and Braun a strong addition, but we need more horses coming out the corral.  Factor in that WCC coaches know SCU's game plan and they'll defend our strengths aggressively and make us win using our weaknesses.  Finishing at 10-6 with an upset as mentioned above will get us into the NIT conversation with a season record of 20-11.  In Las Vegas, we will need a semi-final appearance to make a stronger NIT case. 

Our best option to achieve the above is to maintain the 50% solution I mentioned several times before.  Shoot our way to 10 wins with at least a 50% FG percentage.  We most certainly won't rebound our way there.  In our 10 preseason wins, we shot 50% or better in 7 of those games.  Our lowest FG % was about 45%.   We CAN do it.  The tempo has to rev up, the ball has to be moving and finding teammates making crisp cuts to the rim to make it happen.

Shooting short of 50% could make it a long WCC season.

And that's the Long and Short of it...

 

SCU Men's Basketball - Christmas Wishes

 

                                                                                                                     

'Twas the week before League and all through the West 

Not a player was stirring after taking their tests

The SCU banners were hung on high from the rafters with care 

In the hopes a Championship one day would soon be there

The fans were nestled all snug in their beds 

With visions of victories dancing in their heads

The coaches together immersed in their plans 

Creating upsets that would fill up the Leavey stands

When out on the gym floor there arose such a clatter 

That Renee sprang from her office to see what was the matter

Away at mid-court Jalen made a steal with a flash 

Then raced down court and dunked with a smash

The Rough Riders cheering was loud and growing 

Amazed at the talent their team was showing

He moved so fast, so lively and quick 

That all knew this wasn't a Trick

Then all together they came 

The greats of the past as we called out their names

On Awtry, on Ogden, on Rambis, Nash, and Sears 

Who made us nationally relevant for all of those years

To the NCAA, NIT and Championships now in the past 

Little did we know it wasn't to last

And then in a twinkling they arrived one by one 

Recruits from all over that were second to none

Dressed in their Red, tall, smart and fast 

Their play gave off visions of our incredible past

The schedule was daunting where the Zags reigned as kings 

But this group of Broncos was about to change things

They picked and they rolled, onto the Vegas tournament they were in 

Where the odds against the Zags were 1,000 and one to win

Play after Play they stayed strong as a team  

Shooting and rebounding as they saw in their dream

Then at the end, it came as a shock 

As Timme drove for the dunk, there came the game ending shot block

The ball was rejected at the rim 

As SCU hung on for the win

The oddsmakers wailed as they paid out the cash 

It reminded us of the last big upset from our Hall of Famer Nash

It was a night to dream that we even had a chance 

To return to the NCAA Tournament Big Dance

Thoughts of the future and hopes remain clear in our sight 

Until then Merry Christmas to all and to all a goodnight.....

SCU Men's Basketball - Two "Half's" Don't Make a Whole

 

                                                                                                                       

If two "halfs" did make a whole, the Broncos would be 9-2 and not 7-4; with four more preseason games remaining.  The next four are all winnable games; with tonight's roadie at Boise State being a tough win. My guess is that we win three of the next four to exit non-conference at 10-5.  

The good news is we've been "in" every game and had our chances to get the W, but lately we just can't seem to put two "halfs" together.  We can put quarters, (10 min) together, but not in the same half.  In our last four games, we have been behind at the half in three of the four games; winning two and losing two. 

Against LA Tech, Mt. St. Mary's, and Cal we were ahead in the first ten minutes of each; only to fall behind in two of these by the end of the half.  We were behind Hawaii by eight in the first ten minutes.  In the last ten minutes of the second half, we dominated Mt. St. Mary's and Hawaii to post double digit wins.  We made strong pushes in the second half to tie Cal and get within two of LA Tech, but couldn't finish for the win.  

With us, it's like the Forrest Gump adage "you never know" what ten minutes you're gonna get.  We all witnessed the ten minutes of the ball moving, guys making the right reads, good shots falling and filling up the assist book.  Then we see the next ten minutes, when we stop moving and devolve into standing around then having to take hard shot attempts as the clock winds down.  Our guys try to make a play in the middle, get caught in "big land" and can't find the teammate who made the extra cut to get open.  

On defense, in those ten minute lapses, we fall victim to easy screen/roll buckets that we either stopped or contested early on.  At Cal, we led 34-24 with about four minutes left in the half only to give up a 14-0 Cal run to fall behind by four.  

It's frustrating to watch (when the video streaming actually works) and no doubt to the coaches trying to motivate the players through it.  Those are the ten minutes where we miss Josip Vrankic the most.  A leader, a calm head, who in many cases makes the pass or play to get us back in sync.  Unfortunately, we didn't have him and although we have scoring leaders each game we need another floor leader to get us back on track.  

Tonight at Boise State we'll have our hands full.  They usually start four seniors and a talented freshman.  Ranked # 63 in Kenpom, we will see speed, some size, and depth.  They shoot it pretty well, but a major strength is offensive rebounding - something we struggle with.  We should have a deeper roster tonight with Vrankic getting some minutes, but it will take two full "halfs: of effort.  Two of our four losses are on the road.  Hopefully, we can throw a TCU effort at them tonight and squeak by.

We have Florida A & M Friday and Montana Sunday at home.  Both teams we match up well against and should be able to "wrap up" the Christmas season with wins.  

We will need our overall guard play to get their stroke back on track this week.  In our last four games, excepting J Will, our high minute guys are shooting 30%.  I expect this week they'll revert to the mean, back in the mid 40%.  

Our winning formula remains play full "halfs" not quarters and get back to the 50% solution out shooting our opponents.  Love to see that happen!

SCU Men's Basketball - The Fifty Percent Solution

 

 

                                                                                                                     

We are literally "minutes" away from from an 9-0 start.  It's crazy that we've been able to get our record to 6-3.  How?  By burning the candle at both ends.  The Short roster means heavy minutes and having to test our Freshman bench well before their "midterm" of the season.

Despite all of this, amazingly, we lead all our opponents in every major stat category except as we all know; rebounding.  It's not the total (311 - 307), but it's the offensive rebounding that has done the damage (111) over 12 per game. It's sorta like adding those to our turnovers per game giving way to second chances to score.  

In my mind, it's not the rebounds that are the main culprit, but rather the tired legs shooting mid first and mid second half that has been key to falling short.  Even against LA Tech with Ken Lofton, the 6'7" 275 lbs, second coming of the "round mound of rebound" (Charles Barkley) we had 3 to 4 good looks to steal that game.  Tired legs down the stretch make hitting key shots harder.  It's frustrating for both season ticket holders and coaches to see those shots, usually money, miss.   

So, we just have to go with the "Fifty Percent Solution."  Shoot 'em out the gym.  In our six wins, our shooting average is 54.5%.  Our worst 47% - our best 61%.  We shot 39% in our three losses.  Our opponents FG average is about 40%.  Even though we have struggled giving up offensive rebounds, our defense and ball movement to get good looks has carried us to some very good wins. 

We will face the same challenges throughout the rest of our preseason and WCC schedule. Getting Josip Vrankic back healthy will be huge for us, but will still leave us undersized versus most of our opponents.  He can score both inside, at the elbow, and most importantly find the right open shooter when he kicks the ball back out.  It will be tough to win the rebounding battles.  By sustaining our defensive pressure and pushing the ball up the court and finding our shooters in their spots and in rhythm will maximize our points per possession and create the 50% solution.  

The next two games will test us in all of the above.  Mt. St. Mary's is not highly ranked, but they are tall and experienced.  They have a nice combo of a quick 5'10" guard and three 6'9" front line players who can score at the rim.   If we can hang in there rebounding and push the ball we will have a great opportunity to win with our 50% game plan.

Our game at Cal will be a much tougher challenge.  They are fresh off wins over Fresno State and Oregon State. Their win over Fresno was interesting.  The Fresno 7'0" center, Orlando Robinson, scored his 25 points, but the Cal defense held off the other shooters.  Cal won the game by shooting 44% from three; five of those in the second half.  Same drill for us.  Limit second chance points, pressure the 3 ball, and score in transition.  This would be a perfect time for the 50% solution to show up and get a great road win.  

Going 2-0 this week would bring us to 8-3 and that's way better than 50-50.  We just need the 50% solution to happen in 75% of our remaining games and take our chances on, dare I say a Post Season invite?

SCU Men's Basketball - It Was a Strong Weak

 

                                                                                                                   

While we have lot to be thankful for, the week of Thanksgiving was a tough week for the Broncos.  It was a reminder that our schedule has more quality opponents than in years past and each game is a battle.  

It was a strong weak.  Strong that we crushed TCU to go 5-0 and weak in that we were manhandled by both Fresno State and UC Irvine.  Playing three games in five days with a short roster was too tough to overcome.  Our starters averaged nearly 36 minutes in the last two games.  

Without Josip Vrankic and already short on bigs, we faced two teams with good big men and we paid the price. Our defense made a strong showing that kept us in both the Fresno State an UC Irvine games, but we just couldn't muster the "legs" to finish those games.  Shots that usually fall, didn't.  Ball movement stalled and assists were down.  Defense lapses happened as we tried to adjust.  Rebounds, our Achilles Heel so far this season, were difficult to come by.  We gave up 9 second chance points to Fresno and 16 to UC Irvine on 14 offensive rebounds.  

It didn't help that both FSU and UCI were slapper, scrappers.  Their active hands knocked away balls and shoved and held our guys trying to back door their overplaying our passing lanes.  When we did get penetration into the lane, their bigs were waiting to make shots around the rim hard to convert.

Both FSU and UCI used high ball screens to create several appealing scoring options.  Their quick guards were better at scraping our guys into their screens and creating switches and mismatches that were hard to handle.  We wound up with their guards on one of our bigs and one of our guards trying to stop their bigs rolling to the basket.  Their guards got good looks and when they missed, there was a 7' big in the paint rebounding against our guards for put backs. Tough to win those battles.

Despite al this, we had our chances to win both games; a credit to the will and fight in our team.  Their tired legs showed up late against UCI who had a 13-0 run to vaporize our 7 point lead with about four minutes to go.

The road ahead in pre-season is a mix of more very good teams and those we should handle.  However, with a short roster anything can happen.  

Hawaii presents another "big" challenge.  Ranked 197, they play 10 deep and everyone can score.  Their two bigs are 7'0 and 6'10" and are very efficient scoring inside or getting fouled.  They have four capable guards that can drive and dish.  Look for the same action with ball screens that we've seen and will see in all our games.  If we have another short roster situation tonight, this will be a tough W.  All in all, if we defend and move the ball on offense, I like our chances.   

Louisiana Tech from Conference USA comes to Leavey on Saturday with a 4-2 record.  Their two losses were against tough opponents, Alabama and NC State.  They are ranked in the top 100.  They are very good offensively led by 6'7"  275 lb Freshman Ken Lofton at 18 ppg.  We match up well in size, but one of their strengths is offensive rebounding.  Defensively they are just OK and that's our opportunity.  If we can score it as well as we did against Nevada and TCU and hold the line on offensive rebounds and second chance points, we can keep the Leavey advantage going with a W.

Should be exciting.  Hoping for a 2-0 finish this week with a strong 7-2 record and momentum moving forward.

SCU Men's Basketball - Are the Broncos The Dark Horse in The WCC?

 

                                                                                                   

Four games into the season, the Broncos are 4-0.  They ran a pre-season Mountain West Conference contender and frequent NCAA level team in Nevada out of the Gym and made the Cal Poly Mustangs look like a bunch of ponies in a 30 point drubbing.

Nevada was a bona fide solid win.  Witness one of the better second halves played by a Bronco squad under Coach Sendek.  It was a heady, forget about we aren't rebounding, we'll just outscore you, run up with 96 points.  Fun to watch.   

The Cal Poly game was reminiscent of prior seasons where slow starts, poor shooting, and defensive lapses kept weaker opponents in the game.  With Josip Vrankic sidelined against Cal Poly and scoring only 4 points against Nevada we still won both with blowouts.  The difference so far this season is that this team just plays on and has belief in each other they will recover and win.  Witness some of the in game runs like the 25-3 run against Nevada.  

The horses are off to a fast start, but it's a long race.  Our eleven remaining non-conference schedule is a blend of six teams ranked near or above us (88) and five a distance lower.  Our next two games are on the road at the SoCal Challenge and will be a good "mid-term" exam versus TCU (64) and, the always tough, Fresno State (128).  

TCU, from the Big 12, presents a good challenge for the Broncos.  They have average size, good speed, and experience starting two Sophomores, two Juniors, and a redshirt Senior.  They play nine deep with balanced success.  Cole Despie, a Bellarmine grad, is on their roster.  They are 3-0 against teams all ranked over 200.  IF we play at the level we did versus Stanford and Nevada, we have a very good chance to win.

Fresno State is our second Big West opponent.  This will be an interesting matchup.  They have a 7' Junior center who averages about 20 ppg and is getting pro scouts' attention.  He is a big presence; scoring and yanking down offensive rebounds.  The Bulldogs are 3-0, but two of those wins are versus Division 2 schools and the other against a 283 ranked opponent. Expect them to pound it inside.  Sounds easy, but these can be trap games where we overlook a team who hasn't played against two top 90 ranked teams like we have. Winnable, but will tell us about the resolve of this team being on the road.  

The other complication is we will be without Josip Vrankic again.  Still recovering from an illness; not Covid related.  His leadership, scoring, and passing will be sorely missed.  With Josip unable to play, perhaps expect more Zone.  He is our assist leader at 6.8 per game; most coming from the inside out to our shooters.  If we keep the ball moving and rebound we will be able to run and score in transition.  This should be enough to get the job done.

Getting these two wins would match our start to last year's Covid season at 6-0.  It would also put us in position to match the 2019-20 season 8-1 start; as we will come home to four straight at Leavey.

If we can pull this off in SoCal, "message sent" to our WCC opponents that SCU may not just be a Dark Horse, but the Horse to Ride and rise in the WCC!