SCU's MBB Coach Herb Sendek's - Season Recap

Before I met with coach Sendek, I did my homework.  I looked at comparative statistics from so many angles you'd need a Geometry whiz to figure all the intersections.

Problem was, I met with coach "Zendek" vs coach Sendek.  I mean, I was all puffed up ready to recite stat after stat, but after my opening question, It was apparent none of it mattered. 

It wasn't a full Phil Jackson Zen, but it was definitely Yoda-like.

I asked, "What insights do you take away from the season statistics that you felt were most important?"  Coach Sendek, "we don't really focus on "a" stat or two, rather we focus on the process and our goals to learn, improve, connect, and to serve." 

So, the year to year improvement in seven major statistical categories, wasn't a source of pride among the players and coaches?

"Whenever you see the process work and players improve it's a rewarding experience. We spend a great deal of time on how we can make each individual player better and become a better teammate."  

Really? 

But, what about wins and losses?  A six game win improvement and a five game WCC improvement?  And, how were you able to get there with so many key injuries?  What about beating Valpo on the road and BYU at home?  What about the obvious improvement in Nate, Jarvis, and "E"?  What about? What about? What about?

Same answer.  With an adder, "in a season you experience some joy and a few thrills.  You know there is a difference."  Are you kidding me?

So, I had to bite.  Joy is connecting with the players and seeing the team and a player rewarded for the effort and commitment to getting better.  Beating BYU and Vandy - those were thrills.  

Ok.  I kept trying.  Then how do you deal with the stark inconsistencies of athletic performance?  You blow out BYU making everything and then lose to San Jose State shooting less than 29%?

Sendek, "that's sports, at any level, it happens. When we shoot the lights out, we're the best coaching staff you can imagine.  When we can make a thing, well, we're not very good.  But we don't focus on making shots."  Excuse me?  

Now I'm looking around to be sure I'm in the Men's Basketball offices....

There's more.  "No player wants to miss a shot.  We can't control if any player is going to make the shot.  What we can control in practices is their shot preparation, making sure that we do everything to get the right player a good shot."  

That's the long and short of it all.  Working within the process on what the coaches can control.  Don't get me wrong.  This "process" is very detailed.  EVERY aspect of every player is constantly evaluated and refined.  

Examples: 

Nate shot zero three point shots the prior season, Jarvis one.  "E" shot 42% from the floor and 41% from the FT line in 2015-16.

In 2016-17, Nate shot 117 - 3's making 42%, Jarvis shot 52 making 37%.  "E" shot 56% from the floor and 55% from the FT line.   

I HAD to get some stats in here.....

Why?  You  guessed it -  the process. They learned and improved.  Confidence builds.  Not only did they shoot more, but did so with no hesitation when they had the opportunity.  No head hanging.

It's why players buy in and why they will want to come to SCU.  It's also why we survived so many injuries and still competed and won more games.  Players know the coaches are truly there for them.  

SO, When will we be challenging for the top of the WCC, I asked?

By now, you know the answer.  "When the process and the players come together and take us there."  

Phil Jackson says, "The most we can hope for is to create the best possible conditions for success, then let go of the outcome."

Or we can go full Yoda. "Do or do not, there is no try."

Or John Wooden. "Don't let what you can't do interfere with what you can do."

All the stat geeks will, of course measure the outcome. Rightfully so. 

Wow, I too have a lot of learning ahead. I better get with the "process." Unfortunately, I'm still too old school and have to go "anti zen" and take the mantra of the great Papa John's credo. Instead of better ingredients, better pizza, Papa John's.

How about, better players, better process, better Broncos!

There you have it....

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SCU MBB vs Gonzaga - "4" of a Kind is Tough to Beat

The Vegas odds of beating 4 of a kind in a five card poker hand are astronomical.*   That's the "hand" the Broncos face tonight against the Zags.  Only two things top 4 of a kind; a straight flush or royal flush.

For the "straight flush" to get it done, the Broncos will need not only our #1, 2 and 3 positions to go off, but get a huge "draw" from the 4 and 5 positions to stop the pounding in the middle from the Zags.

The Zags have a two-way "4" of a kind.

Their first "4" of a kind?  Their 4 bigs.  In our previous two meetings, they are 34-53 (64%) from kick in range and hold a 9 point free throw advantage vs ours.  

Their second "4" of a kind, their 4 guards.  They shoot it at 45% and can defend, drive, dish, or finish.  

It's a stacked deck.....I guess that's why they're ranked #4 in the nation.  

More 4's...

We are the WCC #4 seed, playing a nationally ranked #4.  I just wish the game was at 4:00 - cosmic karma!!!

Even though the odds are long, it CAN be done.  Gonzaga just lost to BYU in the Kennel.  In the last two minutes of that game, the "dogs" played with their tails between their legs:  soft.  

We beat BYU and they know it.  Mark Few may believe the burden of the NCAA  #1 ranking may have made them "roll over" against BYU. 

It does cast some doubt in their minds.  Our win against BYU was no bluff; it was solid.  We will need all of that tonight.

I hope it's like the 2015 World Series of Poker; where an unknown high school football coach, Jeff Tomlinson, took down the best poker pros in the world.  Down 3:1 in total chip count in the finals, he turned the game upside down to win; not bluffing once.  He just played his hands.  

The Zags biggest fear is "which" SCU team will they play.  If we play like the team that rolled Pepperdine and BYU shooting lights out, our odds drastically improve.  IF, we can get them to the last two minutes with us tied or slightly ahead, we might see them "whimper" from being challenged.  

That could put us in the position for a Jared "Royal Flush" finishing shot as he's proven he can do...

Game on.   Our Deal...

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* Odds of beating 4 of a kind in 5 card poker: 1 in 72,193 with a Straight Flush or 1 in 649,740 with a Royal Flush.

SCU Men's Basketball & the WCC Tourney - Unfinished Business

Before the season started, I went on record as saying a 16-15 regular season record would put us on "schedule" to start our going national ambitions.  

Well, 16-15 is was.  Improvement?  Certainly.  Given all the changes in new staff, system, culture, and injuries with the same roster, a progression.  You can read the October prediction using the link below.  

Are The Broncos on "schedule" with our schedule?

Maybe it's just me, but I'm not happy.  

I hope the coaches feel the same way...

Why?

Because, for the first time in nearly a decade, we witnessed a team with real potential.  It was at the same time exciting and frustrating. We "saw" the emergence of players unshackled by the former system; doing things we never knew they could do.  It made us want MORE.

  

A team that blew out a hot Pepperdine team.  Beat Valpo and BYU for the first time.  Then went off the rails in stinging losses to SJS, USD, LMU, and @ Washington State.  

I'm just gonna say it:  20 wins was there to do; even with all the injuries.  After beating BYU, I think it got in our team's heads.  "It" meaning the dreaded "E" = expectations.  A load they're not used to and TBH = didn't handle well.

So, I'm sayin' there's unfinished business.  We're not going to win the WCC tourney this year.  However, sending the Dons packing in our first round would be getting some season "ownage" and be crushing to a team that has NIT hopes.  Unfinished business.

If we down the Dons, then we meet the "semi" in the semis - Gonzaga.  They have a truckload of talent and now something to prove after letting a weakened BYU team off the hook in the last two minutes in Spokane. Getting another shot at the Zags and playing them close would send another message - we're coming up!

Maybe not to the top next year, but better, higher.  Maybe we'll become the "dog whisperers" who show the Dogs who's in charge...

Unfinished business...

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SCU Men's Basketball - Winning Numbers

Everybody likes winning numbers; whether it's a Power Ball Lotto, raffle, super bowl pool or SCU Men's Basketball.  

Stat rats analyze every nuance of game numbers to predict wins or losses.  There's SO much data out there that gets massaged to evaluate, rank and, in the end, select at-large teams to the NCAA tournament.  

IMHO, most of "statisphere" predictions are not only wrong, but irrelevant.  

Just ask St. Mary's with their NCAA snub last year.  The data (a convoluted strength of schedule formula) said "maybe."  Their win percentage was booyah.  In the end, it was the 'humans" that didn't like the WCC - in some national circles labeled the "Weak Coast Conference."  

"Blue" nearly always gets the NCAA nod.  Think, Duke, Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky and UCLA.  The Gaels wear some blue, but aren't in the "blue blood" lineage.  

Or, fathom this year's WCC upsets when the "stats" would predict a convincing win that became losses.  BYU losing to us, San Diego, and Pepperdine after blowout home wins.

There's so much focus on stats and number of wins that we overlook the human element in deciding games on the floor.  More specifically, the situational standard deviation of athletic performance.  

All of us have lamented, "how can we play so poorly one night and like basketball savants the next?" Imagine Pepperdine last Thursday night coming into Leavey, brimming with confidence after beating BYU and having more players healthy.  They were swept away by a tsunami of 22 three pointers and a 75% first half shooting percentage!  Try to find that on a stat sheet for SCU who ranks 7th in shooting in the WCC.  

For SCU Men's Basketball, you don't need IBM's "Watson" to figure it out.  Just think C + T + D = W's.

That's a winning formula for the top teams in the NCAA and the WCC.  

OK quants, have a field day with this one.

Consistency + Talent + Depth = Wins

Consistency:  they shoot, defend, at a high level most every night.

Talent:  they get players who can perform to the formula.

Depth:  they go 8 - 9 deep, sharing minutes without a huge drop off.

All of the above, with a small standard deviation game to game.

The Zags and St. Mary's have it.  

Compare the Zags vs SCU using the formula?  

The Zags shoot it at +10%, have a roster of four potential pros, go nine deep vs six and with a -10 minutes/player average.  That's not a gap, it's a chasm.  Imagine Jared's play with an extra 103 minutes of rest!

  

This is what top level, per game, winning numbers look like:

Gonzaga

FG 52%, 3PFG 38%, Off. PPP* 1.12, Poss/Game 73

St. Mary's

FG 49%, 3PFG 39%, Off. PPP* 1.12, Poss/Game 62

SCU

FG 42%, 3PFG 36%, Off. PPP* 1.0, Poss/Game 66

If we shot the same field goal percentage as the Zags, that's 130 MORE shots we would have made.  BIG.

Our C + T + D has yielded 15 wins so far.  Not being negative here, but this is not Coach Sendek's and his staff's team.  It is the same roster as last season; hampered by season long key injuries.  The major C for us this season is not the consistency C; it's Coaching.

The "learning" that we've heard so much about is happening.  The strides are visible.  One piece of evidence: Emmanuel or "E." Always athletic, now he is becoming a basketball player.  

The other C  - Consistency - has been illusive.  The highs have produced two signature wins and the lows a few head-scratching losses.  Our range differential in "off" night shooting percentages to "on" nights needs to be less than 8; not 15%.  

Learning is contagious.  As the players are learning skills to be more consistent, we as season ticket holders and fans are learning that the resuscitation of our MBB program is real and has begun. This coaching staff has a history of producing winning numbers and is moving the needle up.

Chapter one is nearly complete and the story is developing.  Our odds of hitting the winning numbers to become contenders is improving.  Now, in the stands, heads are up.  There is more chatter, banter, and even a little more Cheering vs Complaining.  

And that's a C that's been missing from the formula for a very long time!

* Off PPP = Offensive points per possession.  

* Poss/Game = Number of possessions per game 

Compare

SCU Men's Basketball - Our "March Madness" is in February!

MBB plans to go national won't include a trip to the NCAA tournament in 2017.  

With eight games remaining in the WCC, we have to view those games as our March Madness in February. What?

The next eight determine not only our season record, but the seeding of the only March tournament we'll play in - the WCC Championship.  

Fourth place in the WCC is our chance to make a statement that we're rising AND get a seeding in the tourney where we can cause trouble.  Fifth isn't a deal breaker, but fourth is a sweet spot.

It's going to take a 5-3 finish to get that done.  USF and USD are right behind us in the standings at 5-5 and 4-6 records.

Here's the SCU schedule if you want to see the last eight.

SCU MBB Schedule

A 5-3 run in our 2017 February March Madness would give us potentially two shots at #1 Gonzaga.  This Saturday, at the Kennel and in the semifinals of the WCC tourney where the #4 seed is bracketed to play the #1 seed; most likely Gonzaga.  We'd have to beat either USF or USD to get that shot.

February March Madness!

The 5-3 finish would put us 17-14 for the season; remarkable considering our key player injuries.  We've played 75% of our games thus far without one of the starters!  A solid start for our new coaching staff after only 2 winning seasons in the prior nine years.  The coup de grace would be for Jared and Nate to take down the #1 Zags as their senior parting gift!

The Zags have two tough tests left.  BYU in Provo and St. Mary's in Moraga.

  

BYU may have the tougher track; playing Gonzaga twice, a roadie at USF, and the Gaels in Provo.

St. Mary's has the easier path except for a "prove it" contest with BYU in Provo.  I say prove it because if they lose to Gonzaga in the WCC tourney, they may be in the same spot as last year - bubble team.

Most all of us would agree, "there's no place like home."  Let's be honest, our 2-2 recent homestand looked like an 0-fer until Jared sent LMU packing and our swarming team "D" forced BYU into a loss that ended their NCAA at-large hopes.  

Only three of our last eight are at home.  6-2 is doable, but not probable, given 5 roadies.

So, we need to bring some March Madness into February!  Our time to make some noise.  Our "bracket" starts now.  A big move up in the WCC, in the media, and opening the eyes of better recruits.

If we "March" into February, it will send a message to all Broncos that the momentum for a stampede ahead is real - not just more marketing hype.

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SCU Men's Basketball - Breaking News!! A Bash for Nash

It's been nearly twenty-four years since a crew-cut freshman from British Columbia led the Bronco's to a stunning 64-61 upset over Arizona in the 1993 NCAA Tournament.  Up until then, just the second time in NCAA history that a #15 seed beat a #2 seed!

Today, we know it was just the beginning of a stellar college and two-time MVP pro career. 

Sources from The Bucking Bronco readers, have confirmed Steve Nash will be inducted into the Bronco Hall of Fame on May 13, 2017.   Also honored, as teams, will be the NCAA tourney qualifiers of 1992-93 and 1995-96.  

This is a don't miss event and a deserving honor for not just Steve, but his teammates and Coach Dick Davey.  In 1992,  Davey had just taken the reins from Carroll Williams, who left him with a good core roster to build upon.  Enter Nash.  Under Davey, the teams during Nash's career qualified for three NCAA tourneys, reaching the second round twice.

You my recall how Steve Nash came to SCU.  

A former SCU assistant had seen Nash, but didn't feel he was a fit for their program.  He called Dick Davey to suggest he take a look.  Nash had sent VHS tapes to many colleges hoping to get interest.  No takers. According to Coach Davey, "the SCU coaches saw the tapes and knew this guy can play!"  Off to B.C. where they watched him live and were blown away.  Coach Davey told me, "I knew when I saw him warm up before the game he was a great talent."  Their major concern was if other schools knew.  They kept looking around the gym to see if any other schools were there.  Fortunately, none were.  

The 1993 take-down of Arizona was a classic.  Coach Davey said, "We had two weeks to prepare for what we knew would be a high seed, not knowing it would be Arizona.  Practices were run with our 5 on offense against 6 defenders allowing for the extra speed and athleticism we would play against.   Rebounding, limiting second chance points was vital."  

SCU got off to a great start to lead by 11.  Then, we stopped a furious Arizona second half comeback with Nash hitting 6 clutch free throws in the last 48 seconds.   This was followed by freshman Kevin Dunne's offensive rebound with 4 seconds left to preserve the upset.  That rebounding thing!  Pete Eisenrich led the Broncos with 19 points followed by DeWayne Lewis with 13.  Nash scored 10.

This was a "stacked" Arizona team; 24-4 on the year with a roster of five future pros, including Damon Stoudamire, Chris Mills, Khalid Reeves, Reggie Geary and Ed Stokes.  

Click the link below for the last 2 minutes of that game.  Awesome!  Proud!

SCU Upsets #2 seed Arizona in 1993 NCAA Tourney

Fantastic memories that create a "pining" in all of us for the future.  The timing of the honor, a rallying point for all Bronco fans.  Hopefully, a harbinger for our future of returning to national relevance.

The "seeds" of our own national resurgence are being sown.  As season ticket holders and fans we relish the day when we'll take down the next #2 seed! 

So, let's have a "Bash for Nash."  Show Steve and his teammates some Bronco love.  They deserve it!

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SCU vs Gonzaga - Coaches Preview - "Game On!"

Gonzaga comes to town Thursday "walking the dog" with a 17-0 start and lots of confidence.  Rightly so. Their stat sheet is uber. Nearly first in every key area.  Their roster, relatively young, big, solid, and deep. They expect to win.  They probably will...

But, to me, that's not what's this game is about.

It's a measuring stick of not just where we are, but where we want to go.  An examination of the learning curve of where our re-booted program is against the standard bearer in the WCC and the national relevance we are seeking.  

In talking with coaches this week, there is no fear, just excitement to compete against another highly ranked team and test our mettle.

The game plan.  Focus on the things we can execute to maximize our opportunities to put a leash on the Dogs and steal one from a team who hasn't been road tested much this season.  

Mark Few hates playing at Leavey.  Too many bad memories of great escapes.  Last minute victories that are haunting to coaches.  For the Zags, the stakes are much higher, carrying the weight of soaring national expectations.  Few knows teams with nothing to lose often don't...

Coaches keys.  Disrupt.  

Everything in the half court flows through the bigs,  Karnowski and Collins.  They can both score it and are good passers.  We'll show a variety of defensive looks here.  Straight up with "E", show and release double teams, try to bait so we can either get some steals or force a late in the clock three.

Their guards are big, quick, and can shoot and drive it.  Williams-Goss is their main "go to".  We'll try to guard with a posse of JB, KJ, Hauser, Wardlow, and Healy.  Force the action over the high screen/rolls and try to make their looks as hard as possible.  Having Wardlow back is a plus for us because his size can stop some of their one on one success. 

It's a pick your poison, defense by triage plan.

For us, it's about executing our screen/rolls and moving the ball to spots where we know we can be successful.  Jared, as always, will be hounded and doubled to limit his looks.  This can create openings for Feagin, Hauser, Healy, Henrik, and Nate to do some damage.

If KJ can penetrate, that creates options for him to dish or finish and draw fouls.  We'll push the ball when opportunities arise and be patient otherwise - try to control the tempo to our pace.

It's a tough test.  I know our coaches and players will give it their best.  Our "grade" my not be reflected in the final score; more a progress report on our journey to national.

As fans, we can try to make Leavey SO loud to make it claustrophobic for the Zags and do our part to disrupt.  

I know one thing for sure.  We'd all love it if the Zags left Leavey with one "Fewer" win.

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