SCU Men's Basketball - A Case of the "What Ifs"

Back in November, the MBB program mantra was "R-I-S-E."

Since then, we've been looking for Momentum from our Young players to try to Close Out games for a season on the Brink...All headlines of recent past Blogs.

Now, with just two conference games and the WCC tourney left, the program is "IFFY."  

Right square in the cross-hairs of "iffy" is Coach Keating's tenure.

This is not really news within Bronco circles, but before Tuesday it didn't make the news until Jeff Faraudo's Mercury News column that included quotes from our new A.D. 

Click on the link below to read.

Mercury News SCU Article

So, let's go explore some "What ifs?"  

What "if" coach Keating's contract is not renewed?  

Too many, that's the straightforward thing to do.  There will be vigorous debates and the usual "statistical sword-fights" over his successes and shortcomings.  Bottom line.  Just not enough W's.

And too much at stake...

To many Bronco fans, it may seem straightforward and a simple thing to fire and hire a coach.   IMHO it is ANYTHING BUT THAT...

It's not just a reset, but a total reboot to Men's Basketball.  I submit that it will be one of the hardest things to pull off successfully in SCU athletics history.  Too dramatic of me, maybe...

But.

What "if" we can't attract or afford the right coach? 

Heresy to many.  I mean who wouldn't want to come to Santa Clara?  The place is amazing...True.  

But it is also known for being amazingly underfunded, with facilities that aren't yet amazing to the better recruits we'll need.  Program support (marketing budgets and programs, community outreach, television, radio deals, etc) that amazingly do not exist yet at a proper level.  Our new head coaching recruiting line will be the promise of how amazing it's going to be.  A promise we've had a poor track record delivering.

NCAA Division 1 head coaches are expensive.  SCU has yet to pony up with salary numbers that might attract proven winners or the best "up and comer."  

For example, Mark Few at Gonzaga makes > $ 1 Mil and that's low compared to the top echelon of coaches. I'm sure salary benefactors are being recruited right now - you know who you are...We'll see.

What "if" key players and coaches leave or transfer? 

NCAA rules are a curious thing.  There are some exception games that can be played.  What "if" Jared Brownridge decided to leave?  Other good players may decide to exit given the uncertainty of their future. Some players, harsh as it is, might be told their scholarships will not be renewed by the new Coach.

What "if" key coaches decided to leave?  Potential continuity lost.  In reality, few, at best would be retained.

I can go on with many more "ifs."  

Here's the deal.  This reboot - hold on to your chairbacks - could take at least three years!!!  One of the biggest of many reasons, will be trying to convince two and three star recruits to believe in Santa Clara.  In the past nine years, I'm not sure we've been able to recruit a one star let alone a two or three.  Unless we get some budding stars from the JUCO* ranks, it takes time.  

OR, we could have our current core players play better...

The Commission, Trustees, Fr. Engh and Renee Baumgartner all have the goal of national relevance in MBB by 2020.   

At least we're having the conversation and have stated goals about going national, which is way better than the last 20 years of "IFFY."

Just think, "What if" we actually pull it off?

Now that would be truly AMAZING to be a part of...

* JUCO = Junior College Transfers

Santa Clara University Has Momentum - Does Men's Basketball?

ICYMI*, a strange thing happened last November 5th.  Santa Clara released a University marketing video entitled "SCU Momentum 2015."

Strange, because I have ranted in the past about our marketing and communication gaffes, but wonderful, in that this is the best marketing piece I've seen from SCU since Fr. Engh's tenure began in 2009.

AND guess what?  The star and narrator is Jared Brownridge; an athlete!!!  Santa Clara used an athlete to chronicle all the successes and MOMENTUM achieved in 2015.  The video is excellent and Jared delivers a performance better than his 3pt last second shot in the recent victory over Pepperdine. 

Check it out:

Santa Clara Momentum Video

This is Branding folks.  It screams the message we've all known for decades, but rarely let the public in on:  the phenomenal assets the University possesses, but has been myopic about exploiting.  

This is a MOMENTUS occasion...whether recruiting a potential professor, student, or athlete this will be a great tool.

The video also begs the question, "Do we have momentum in Men's Basketball, the President's Commission on Athletics targeted flagship sport?"  

Sadly, we don't...

M/W soccer, volleyball, even water polo have MO.  Men's basketball - no.

Don't get me wrong, we've had MOMENTS.  The CIT and CBI wins were good moments as was the recent Pepperdine buzzer beater.  But, as we march to the finish of our seventh losing season in the last nine years, we've gained no traction or velocity from those titles.

No P=MV...

Since 2007, our overall record is 135-152 (.47)  and 49-83 (.37) in the WCC.  Our average RPI is 207.  Our best was 104.

Our MBB program is stellar at all the "other" things that SCU demands; including graduation rates.  So are most other WCC schools.  

Fans/donors don't make contributions or invest just based upon grad rates - it's wins and wins against quality opponents.  They want traction, progression, mass that leads to you guessed it - Momentum.

Our program can't "Go" without "Mo."

Students won't Go without Mo...

As MBB season ticket holders, fans, and donors, we're happy to have had some "moments" but what we really want is MOMENTUM...

* ICYMI = In Case You Missed It.

Also on Twitter @Fcrary

SCU Men's Basketball - Close ≠ "Close" in Finishing Games

Last February, I wrote a column about the SCU "Nice Try Syndrome" after we lost another game to the Zags.

Here's the link if you want to read it for a refresher.
SCU - Nice Try Syndrome

Now the "nice try" has morphed into the "we're close" campaign.
  
Reality check.  We may get close, but we just can't "close out" games.
   
In many professions, "closers" get paid the big bucks.  Those that are close, get to watch the "closers" receive their recognition for performing.

Mark Few's teams are closers.  Since 2008, they've won 65% of their games with less than four minutes left and within four points.  We didn't have much to celebrate this New Year's Eve as it was the fifth time they've closed us out when we were either within four or tied in the last few minutes.  We are 1-19 vs Gonzaga since the 2007-08 season.  

We are 34% (24 of 47) as closers since 2007-08, including six losses this season alone.

Here's the amazing part, we were AHEAD with less than four minutes to go in 25 of those games that we lost...Close?

In 2008 Coach Keating said, "Since I've been at Santa Clara we have lost 20 games, 15 of those have been two possession games.  I have to get better, they have to get better - we all have to get better."

I guess it's still a work in progress.

I like the way we played Thursday afternoon.  We actually shared the ball and guys other than Jared made shots.  Emmanuel played his best game yet and gave us a presence in the paint we sorely need.  His "volleyball" spike of a Perkins' shot energized Leavey.  Kai, Hauser and Feagin all made solid 3's in the second half.  Some vital signs...

Jared was Jared; spectacular.

I left Leavey wondering, where was this type of performance in our other 9 losses?  We all know we had another "we let it get away" loss vs Arizona.  The PR machine tells us we're growing, learning and getting better....IMHO, we looked "grown up" enough to take out the Zags!  

Thursday's game was a subtle tutorial on how to close out games.  Sorry to indulge.  I submit four lessons.

At 3:35 to go, Kyle WiltJer, a senior, did a premier acting job in front of the official to draw a foul on Nate. He knows how to get that call and as a 92% FT shooter - smart.

Zags ahead by 2 late, foul us three times preventing the "dagger" 3pt shot, also knowing our "prime time" FT track record.

Late in the game, Josh Perkins catches us off guard with a line drive FT and gets his own rebound - draining key seconds off the clock.

Zags make their clutch FT's in the last three minutes without their best shooters at the line.

For SCU, missed FT's and a layup - at 13 seconds, oh well....Then with only precious seconds to go, Jared fouls out?  We had to make the foul - but both Jared and the bench seemed unaware he already had four fouls.  He walked back onto the court before getting the news.

So we can get close - but we are not yet "closers."

In late game or clock situations, we seem to stop our motion, get the ball to Jared and then stand around and watch him try to beat the defense 1-1.  It's just too much to expect when our opponents know to make sure someone other than Jared beats them.  Until that changes and we trust other options, our "close ratio" won't change much.

If we're close, we play with confidence and consistency.  If we're close, we know how to make our "reads" and hit the open shooter before we default to the Jared 1-1 late clock play.  If we're close, we don't lose six games in the last two possessions this year.

As season ticket holders and fans, we've been hearing about close for a long time and now we'd like to see "closure" - a winning WCC and season record, an NCAA bid, and a program that's known for "closing games" not happy just being close...



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SCU Men's Basketball - "A Season on the Brink"

John Feinstein's account of Indiana Men's BB 1985-1986 season is an acclaimed look at a program back on the "rise" under fiery Coach Bobby Knight with talented players that are slow to integrate into his system. 

Obviously, we are not a "blue blood" level program like Indiana, but I see a number of parallels with where we are with SCU MBB.

More struggles than successes.  A University with a rich history of notoriety in Men's Basketball.  Fiery Coach.  Animated, vocal, prowling the sideline.  A program trying so hard to rid itself of mid-major mediocrity .  Like Indiana with the "middle America" label, a cut below Kentucky, Duke, and North Carolina as we are in the WCC, a level below Gonzaga, BYU, and St.Mary's.

So far, our season is disappointing to say the least. Our four wins are against teams with losing records. Only one team has an RPI below 250. We are 286.  We do have one quality loss to Arizona.

At 4-8, our season is on the "brink" as the WCC starts.  

Good news. Of the next 10 games, six are at home. Our WCC opener is away at Pacific (1-8).  BUT, then, we play St.Mary's, Zags, and Portland at home.  Away @BYU, @USD, and finally Pepperdine, LMU, and USF at Leavey.  Oh, then off to Spokane to play the Zags again!  Tough....

IMHO, it's not just our season, but our program is on the "brink."

With 18 games left before the WCC tourney, going 9-9 would be heroic, given the road schedule, for a full season 13-17 record. We are headed for our seventh losing season in the last nine years. The only event not to put us over the "brink" is a WCC tourney final upset.  

One thing for sure.  The team will play hard; effort is rarely a problem.

This puts our program on the "brink."  Fr. Engh, the Trustees, and the Commission recommendations are there to see in print - moving to National prominence.  I'm pretty sure this isn't the momentum and progress they are looking for.

As season ticket holders and fans, neither are we.  

Our program history has had its highs and lows like Indiana or any other program, but it just feels like we're treading water not "rising."

So, I looked back.  It's been 20 years since our last NCAA tourney.

But, going further back, since 1982, Santa Clara Men's Basketball has never had a losing record over any eight year period, until now. 

In terms of overall wins, it's all about the spin.  

For WCC coaches, over an eight year period, we're actually fifth not third as our PR suggests.   Our game day program states: "Keating has 128 wins in his seven years as a head coach at Santa Clara.  He is the third-winningest coach in the last 12 years in the WCC behind Gonzaga's Mark Few and Saint Mary's Randy Bennett".  Last time I checked last year would be coach Keating's eighth season and this his ninth.

To make us third, you have to extend the time period for coaches to 12 years and eliminate Dave Rose, Eric Reveno, Rex Walters as WCC coaches since none have tenure of 12 years.  Pretty silly.

For WCC conference only wins spanning eight seasons, we rank seventh with 46 wins and 78 losses.  Again, if you remove Dave Rose we're sixth.  Eric Reveno has been in Portland nine seasons, but still has more wins through eight seasons.  Rex Walters has more wins over seven seasons.

If Bobby Knight was witnessing this, he might throw another chair.

Reality, we'll never be an "Indiana" level program.  But as a program we're on the "brink" and have to ask the tough question, where are we headed?  There are two edges on the "brink." Where will we choose to go?   

As season ticket holders, our answer is pretty simple - UP.  

Up fills Leavey and energizes donors to make "national" a reality rather than another PR campaign.  Is SCU "On a Mission" or just located "On a Mission." 

We'll know soon....

Also on Twitter @Fcrary

Next up:  Close but no Cigar....

 

SCU Men's BB - The We're "Young" Story is Getting "Old"

Will we ever grow up?  It seems that in every game recap I read, the reason we are not performing is because of how young we are.  Frankly, the "young" Bronco story is getting OLD.  Stale.  

Is that the best we've got in our PR repertoire?

So, I decided to check it out.  If you look at the top six WCC contending teams, we're not that young.  The Zags and BYU have more experience.  Most all of the other teams are like us and even younger.

So here's the conundrum.  The issue so far, is that some of our older guys just aren't performing as well as the other teams and our own young guys. 

Consider some data.  

We return 6 of 8 top scorers.  Pugh and Ndumanya are red shirt sophomores and Kratch a RS junior.  They all have the benefit of that extra year of practice and development in the system. 

Our team shooting has been way off the mark. However, of our usual starters at guard & forward, the top three in FG% are freshman and sophomores.  Go figure.  Exception - Nate Kratch, our center, is on a roll in the paint going 24-39 (61.5%) in the last 3 games.

Meanwhile, on defense we've given up 65 three pointers in the first seven games - many from the corners where our more experienced players are relied upon to cover.  BTW, we made only 33.

Paradoxically, our experience hasn't been yielding enough good experiences.

So, I decided to go back in time and look at more data on the we're "young" byline.   Another irony.  For years, our MBB S.I.D.'s last name was - you guessed it - Young...

It's just weird.

Looking at the career stats of 10 "impact" players from the past seven years, only three had better statistical years as seniors.  In fact for six of them, their best stats were as sophomores!  

Another reason we may stay so "young" is about 18 players left the program before becoming seniors for a plethora of reasons.  I'm actually OK with that, since our motivation is to upgrade talent.  It's the "Peter Pan"* in our program.  Begs other questions, but not the focus of this piece.

Stats are stats.  Open to all levels of interpretation.  Players contribute in may ways.  Defenses adjust, but so should we.  The point - counter point re: performance would be never ending.

Bottom line.  Other than our senior laden 2012-13 CBI Tourney Championship team, we are no closer to a WCC Title or NCAA bid.

Don't get me wrong.  I really like our roster.  Real potential. Unfortunately, as we all know games aren't played on paper.

There's no doubt some freshmen and sophomores are prone to more mistakes.  What counts is progression. Learning to make better "in game" decisions.  Gaining confidence to make the "read" and make an athletic play.  

It just seems to be right now we're more worried about failure than success.  Playing not to lose rather than win.  

Of the top 25 scorers on WCC rosters, 18 are not seniors.  Half of those are Fr/Soph.  

IMHO, we may never be old enough, but being "young" and progressing never gets "old."


* From Peter Pan "I'll never grow Up."

SCU Men's Basketball - Season Outlook - Can we RISE?

Let's just get it out there.  

As season ticket holders and fans, we're not thinking so much about the regular season, but HOW we can get to the post season?

After 20+ years of post season Ground Hog Day, we need to have the spell broken. 

Coach Keating's new program mantra is R-I-S-E... For him, maybe that's the metaphor for resuscitation of a program that was operating below the poverty level for a D1 basketball team.

For us, it means elevate and compete at the top of the WCC and earn NCAA or NIT bids.  We've won two post season tournaments, the CIT and CBI, that were great for our athletes to experience, but largely invisible for "amping" up our program.

Let's face it, the odds of NCAA at-large bids are lower than the U.S. Congress approval rating...

Looking at our schedule, my guess is that an 18-12 record would be a pretty good season, but not post season worthy.

To R-I-S-E from 18-12, we will need to beat BYU, Pepperdine, and St. Mary's at least once and finish 3rd in the WCC.  

At 21-9 we might be NIT worthy.  

The HOW to an NCAA bid on top of the above, is to knock off Arizona or Providence/Evansville(all NCAA teams) in the Wooden Legacy AND make the WCC tourney finals.  Now that would make all our season ticket holders RISE.

At the end of the day, there's only one sure bet:  beat Gonzaga OR BYU in the WCC tourney final game.  I say BYU because some prognosticators have picked them to win the league.

Our team is healthy, bigger, faster and even though young, have more experience than in the past few years at key positions.  We can actually defend the paint and have shooters that can take pressure off Jared Brownridge.  

Tonight marks the start of what we hope is the new Santa Clara Men's Basketball program, blessed by the Blue Ribbon committee and more funding from Father Engh and the Trustees.

Can we R-I-S-E?

I know this.  If we do, the season ticket holders and fans will "rise" with a standing ovation and a campus will be re-ignited and re-energized with true SCU spirit....

SCU Men's Basketball - Season Schedule Preview - Ouch!

I'm just going to be blunt.

Our Men's BB schedule is a hot mess...

It's not necessarily "who" we play as much as it is the "when" we play our key games...It's awful...

I'm not blaming Coach Keating for all of it; rather the WCC and the stuff job they're doing on us and pretty much everyone else not named Gonzaga.

After the Cable Car ends on November 15th, our students will get to see one home game until January 14th...

That's more than half our schedule - "poof" - gone.  Oh, wait, I'm sure they'll swarm back for St. Mary's two days before Christmas or even better, Gonzaga on NEW YEAR'S EVE...

Perspective:  Zag students will miss only four home games on their break.  When they get back - five of the next seven are in Spokane.  For SCU, five of the next eight are ROAD games...

I guess that's the reward the WCC bestows on them as the "rainmakers" for 15 + straight NCAA appearances.

OK, I'm done with the ranting...

Well, not really.

Overall our schedule is pretty strong.   We will play up to six 2015 NCAA qualifiers, one NIT team, and one CBI team.

Our non-league home schedule is made up of teams that mostly only NCAA trivia buffs have heard of; with the exception of San Jose State.   As I wrote in my last blog, we're just not there yet where we can get "name" teams to play us.

This is not a home schedule you can build a "brand" around and will be a significant challenge to achieving one of our new A.D.'s most important goals.

Her first chance to help comes next season.

That being said, the Cable Car does feature two mid-major teams who will compete for NCAA/NIT bids. Lipscomb played Vanderbilt, Belmont, and Texas last year and has key players returning.  Milwaukee played Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Auburn.

The Cable Car teams are not big names, but they're also not easy W's.

If you want to see the best of the season, you'll need to spend Thanksgiving in Anaheim this year at the Wooden Legacy tourney. We play Irvine, Arizona, Providence or Evansville, then maybe Michigan State or BC.   All NCAA teams.   Now THAT'S a schedule we'd love!!!

In a weird way, our schedule may work in our favor.   If we can beat most of these "patsies" at home and show strong at the Wooden Legacy or "shock" at the WCC tournament, we could get an NIT bid or maybe even an NCAA bid. 

If we could only bring our big name, "away" games home, then our "no name" home games will go away and Leavey will be rockin!!

Next: Season Outlook and Predictions
Also on Twitter @Fcrary