Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Roller Coaster

 

                                                                                                                     

The Broncos have four games left to improve on their 17-10 record and to build momentum for the WCC Tournament.  It's been a roller coaster ride so far with this season's performance much like the four weather "seasons."  We're hot, we're cold, and at times, we've lost the "spring" in our step along the way.

Signature wins against Gonzaga and humbling losses to San Jose State and San Diego are prime examples of the roller coaster highs and lows.  So far only St. Mary's and USF have avoided losses in league to teams they are favored to beat.  Most every team has fought through key player injuries, including the Broncos, without starters Adama Bal and Brenton Knapper the last three games.  Tonight, St. Mary's will be without 6'8"starter Joshua Jefferson versus USF in Moraga.  A big break for the Don's.

Our highly touted depth was severely tested in those three games and responded with stalwart efforts; most notably in the "rumble" loss at USF.  Everyone lost their composure, including the officials who applied a non rules based double standard; ejecting six players. Despite all of the chaos and being short handed, we should have won this game.  We were a turnover and rebound away in the final seconds.  

Our recent wins versus Pacific and, on the road, at San Diego featured step up efforts by Jake Ensminger, Tyree Bryan, Cam Tongue and a breakout performance at USD by Jalen Benjamin with 23 points and sealing the deal; making 10 of 11 free throws.  We hope this is the start of Jalen playing to his potential down the stretch.  Freshman guard Christian Hammond made two starts after Knapper's injury and showed potential but needs more minutes to settle in and get comfortable.  

As a result, we appear to have fourth place in hand, but are two games back of either second or third depending on the outcomes of the road game at Gonzaga and final game at Leavey versus USF.  This assumes we don't falter playing away at Portland or at home against LMU; both near the bottom in the WCC.  With the four seed, we advance directly into the quarterfinals and most likely play either USD, LMU, or Pepperdine.  If we win that game, we play St. Mary's in the semis if they remain the # 1 seed.  

The good news is everything is still in play, including a possible post season NIT invite.  To have consideration for an NCAA bid, we would have the win the WCC tourney or beat Gonzaga and USF in our final league games.  It appears to be a done deal that only two WCC teams will get bids.  

With all we've had to play through this season, our full lineup, except perhaps Brenton Knapper, should be ready for the final four games and tourney.  Our bench is more battle tested and has played key roles down the stretch.  We'll need every player to be at their best.  

The roller coaster ride continues this Thursday at Leavey versus LMU.  Let's hope we enjoy the ride and finish strong the last four in the WCC! 

 

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Regression

 

                                                                                                                             

After two strong road wins and a thrilling home win versus Gonzaga, season ticket holders and fans felt the momentum for bigger things ahead for the Broncos.  It appeared that this team, with so many new faces, was finally progressing and coming together to challenge the WCC mainstays.  

That feeling and momentum evaporated two nights later at home against St. Mary's who sucked the air out of Leavey and the Broncos forging a 20 point lead in the first 11 minutes.  The hangover has stayed with us for six games.  While winning three and losing three of those games, we have started all these games by falling behind 10-15 points in the first 10 minutes.   It's a head scratcher for Bronco fans.  Same team, same coaches, different results.  It feels like a regression.  It's like going to a Taylor Swift concert and expecting a good show and then Travis Kelce shows up who can't sing a lick!

Currently, at 15-9 and 6-3 in the WCC, our margin for error is evaporating.  The loss to USD at home was a Quad 4 loss and a NET ranking disaster for postseason nods.  The disparities are befuddling.  In three of those games, we scored an average of 55 second half points, yet against USD we scored a TOTAL of 59 losing by 11; despite getting 27 offensive rebounds.  

In doing a little homework from our past three 20 win seasons, we have these off games in about 20% of our schedule; roughly six games a season.  Losses like San Jose State, Pepperdine, LMU, and Pacific.  It's college basketball.  Losing to top 60 ranked teams is expected, but not to teams ranked outside of the top 200.  Three games a season can make the difference between an NCAA invite or staying home.  It's crazy, but it's not much different than the Golden State Warriors, who with the best talent in the world, lose a lot of games with big leads going into the fourth quarter.

To our credit, we have also played six Quad 1 games, winning two.  By the time the season ends, we might get 2-3 more Quad 1 credits as teams we've played, like Washington State and others, beat top 50 teams.  By comparison Gonzaga and USF have no Quad 1 wins this season and St. Mary's has 4.

We know a lot about this team after 24 games.  We can score.  We can rebound.  We occasionally play defense.  We turn the ball over.  We can go on big runs - both good and bad.  I think for the coaches and fans, it's the unforced turnovers that are the most frustrating.  The passes to no one, the inability to secure the basketball after a good rebound, and the persistent fumbles in the paint.  Unfortunately, I think turnovers are here to stay.  We are who we are.  

IMHO, to reach our potential, we need a leader to emerge.  We have a scoring leader, a rebounding leader, an assist leader, but not a floor leader.  Someone who has the creds to rally his teammates, hold himself, and others accountable.  Someone when we go off the rails can settle us down and focus on the next play and not force hero shots.  Someone who has a "go to" shot to get us back on track.  The past two seasons we've had Podz and Jalen who could fill those roles and make the big shot or assist at crucial moments.  Even with them, we had our bad nights like the NIT first round losses to Washington State and Sam Houston.  

With seven WCC games left, we need to stop the regression with aggression and progression.  I can't think of a better place to start that than at USF.  The games this Saturday at USF and Saturday, March 2nd at Leavey are HUGE.  They are rivalry games and they'll be ready to prove they deserve a # 65 NET ranking.  These two games will most likely determine third place in the WCC.  They have @SMC, Zags, home/away with Pepperdine, home/away with SCU, and then @LMU.  We have Pacific, @USD, LMU, @Portland, @Zags and two with USF including the last game of the season at Leavey.

I feel like their schedule is harder.  Regardless, we need to go 5-2 to have any chance for outright third or tie.  IF we can get there, our strength of schedule could pay dividends.  We are # 71 and USF # 263.  

One thing for sure, never a dull moment for the Broncos.  This is what Coach Sendek and his staff have been building for - these moments.  We hope this building stands tall seven games from now!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - No Shows and Shootouts

 

                                                                                                                                  

The anticipation for the games versus Gonzaga and St. Mary's at Leavey couldn't have been more hyped after the Broncos opened the WCC with two wins on the road over Loyola and Pepperdine.  Ticket sales were brisk and even the media paid uncharacteristic attention to Santa Clara for these regular season games.  Normally, the only ink we get has been related to the NBA draft as a result of back to back first round selections.  Even Bronco legend Steve Nash showed up!  

Fortunately and unfortunately two SRO crowds witnessed two "No Shows."  The first by Gonzaga and the second by the Broncos.   

We beat Gonzaga 77-76 breaking an 11 year drought and Coach Sendek's first win against the Bulldogs.  Our team was resilient, played together, weathered two second half runs, and in the end it was a fade away three bouncer on the rim by Adama Bal that became the winning basket with 4.6 seconds left.  Bedlam and a $5,000 fine ensued as students and fans stormed the floor and soaked up a momentous victory! 

These games have gone against us so many times.  Fortunately, however, in all honesty when you do a deeper dive into the game we took advantage of a season low performance by the Zags, in 3 point shooting (2-20), offensive rebounds (7), total rebounds (31), assists (8) and blocked shots (2).  

Give credit to our hustle and defense, but in reality they missed a lot of open looks.   If that wasn't enough, the Zags choked twice with under 14 seconds left.  With the Zags leading by one, Ryan Nembhard, an 83% free throw shooter missed the front end of a 1-1.  Our Adama Bal drove the length of the court and scored the go ahead basket and was fouled for a 1 point lead with 4.6 seconds left.  Bal, an 86% free throw shooter, then missed the free throw.  Next, the Zags most experienced player Anton Watson snagged the rebound and turned to go up court, left his feet and had no where to throw the ball except back to Adama Bal - choke number two - game over.  If not for our 18 turnovers, we win this game by at least 10.  We'll take it!

Unfortunately, it was our turn to no show against St. Mary's.  We produced season lows in 3 point shooting, rebounds, assists, on our way to a 23 point loss that wasn't even that close.  It marked the 6th time in the past 10 games we had more turnovers than assists.  Bronco fans were touting our perceived matchup advantages but Randy Bennett knew better.  Their first offensive play set the mismatch tone, going right to Joshua Jefferson vs Johnny O'Neil down low.  Jefferson backed him down for a four foot easy score.  It was a SMC clinic in the first 10 minutes of this game.  They carved us up like a cardiac surgeon and backed that up with a lockdown defense to lead by 30.  Tough to watch.  

For those watching, key differences in execution were easy to see.  St. Mary's on offense uses perhaps the best high ball screens in the WCC.  Their screeners actually trap defenders time after time, creating mismatches for easier shots.  On offense, our high ball screens are vapor; trapping no one.  SMC just shut us down.  Our two best players, Bal and Marshall had a total of five points.  Five.  Some say SMC point guards Mahaney and Marcuilionis aren't good shooters or playmakers.  How about their assists to turnover ratio of 4:1 against us.  They had ZERO turnovers the first half.  The overriding question is why did our guys look so lost?   We've been able to shoot our way out of some of these, but not this one. 

The SMC blowout loss was followed by two "shootouts."  Bronco fans were rightfully worried how the team would respond to the upcoming road games at Pacific and at home against Portland.  Two teams at the bottom of the WCC.  To our teams credit, we prevailed in both shootout games.  Put in perspective, Pacific is last in FG % and second to last in FG% defense.  Portland is seventh in FG% defense and eighth in 3 Pt. FG% defense.  In other words, both teams don't shoot or defend well at all.  

At Pacific we shot it well and dominated the worst rebounding team in the WCC.  We made 15 three's, had 21 assists to go with 18 second chance points.  Same story against Portland at home.  We had 16 three's, 28 assists, and 14 offensive rebounds.  These were two much needed wins.  While this all sounds impressive, we've had only one game all season versus a top 100 ranked opponent where we had 20 assists and that was Gonzaga.  It highlights lingering open issues for us to compete and beat better teams. 

Turnovers.  We are near the bottom in the WCC (7th) in TO's per game and assists to turnover ratio.  This includes having feasted on 49 total assists the past two games versus the last place teams which skew those results to look better.  We have two primary ball handlers - Brenton Knapper and Adama Bal.  Point guard is neither one's natural position.  That's an issue but not the critical one.  Our offensive execution needs help.  Our screens, cuts, motion and low post positioning needs to generate open looks and mismatches.  When we don't screen well, mismatches don't develop.  Why set screens if you don't intend to get someone?  We then revert to one on one play and get stuck in a bad position late in the clock and turn the ball over or face a tough shot.  

Our on ball defense.  We get caught in too many switches on ball screens and have to play catchup to recover that results in tough matchups.  Witness SMC took us apart in the half court and against Portland where our stated game plan was to force them into shooting 2 point shots, not three's.  Well, we got caught by their high screens and Portland torched us by making 10 of their first 12 three point shots.   Another side effect is excess fouling due to being out of position leading to opponents free throws.  Portland shot 29 free throws.

A bright spot in league has been our rebounding.  We are second in all categories including offensive rebounding at nearly 11 per game.  Those are key, in that they offer second  possessions and opportunities for second chance points. 

Don't get me wrong.  We have really good players.  A record of 14-7, given our lack of fundamentals and consistency is very good considering the most difficult schedule in Coach Sendek's tenure.  Our strength of schedule ranking is 75.  USF is at 270, SMC 55 and Gonzaga 60, we are in the mix.   

We have ten games remaining with four of those against the top three. Two against USF, one at Gonzaga and one at St. Mary's.  Six against the rest.  Two versus San Diego, one at Portland, one against Pacific, one with LMU and one versus Pepperdine all at Leavey.   

Five at Home and five away.  

It will take six more wins to position us for the WCC tourney and postseason.  One upset win and no upset losses would be perfect.  There no time left for "No Shows" and we'll take our chances with "shootouts."  

Go Broncos!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - "There's No Place Like Home"

                                                                                                                 

At 11-6 overall and 2-0 in the WCC, the Broncos have a chance to prove Dorothy right in "There's No Place Like Home."  This week it will take some real "wizardry" to knock off either Gonzaga tonight or St. Mary's on Saturday or both.

GU leads the West Coast Conference in scoring (84.9), field goal percentage (.498), rebounds per game (42.5, 13th in NCAA Div. 1), and assist to turnover ratio (1.40).  The Zags feature three outstanding guards, three high quality bigs, and a defense ranked 37th in the NCAA.  So far, in league they've handed out 22 assists per game and have six players who average in double figures.  If this is a "down" year for Gonzaga, most every team would take their production. They have won 22 of the past 23 games at Leavey. In addition, a win would give Mark Few 700 wins, making him second in NCAA history.  They will be motivated.  I can't think of a better time for us to send the Dogs howling back to Spokane!

It doesn't get much easier Saturday vs St. Mary's.  The Gaels are patient, experienced, and efficient on offense with 18 assists per game complemented by the 19th ranked defense in the country. They also have three veteran, explosive guards who break down defenses and three bigs who can attack the rim and rebound.  The Gaels have won 13 of the last 16 against us.

The Broncos two WCC road wins have been gritty; a good thing.  We have four starters shooting it at near a 50% clip with Bal and Marshall at 50% and 43% from 3 point. Frankly, our shooting has been the main reason for the two W's.  LMU took St. Mary's to the last minute losing by 4.  The Gaels are good, but beatable.  We need to prove we can play with these teams.  Send a message; not an S.O.S.

Somehow, we need to right the ship on assists, turnovers, and defensive rebounding.  In the WCC, we are near last in turnovers and the middle in assists.  Our opponents this week dish out twice as many assists as we do.

Our overall rebounding is OK, but we give up too many offensive boards leading to second chance points.  This is a "tall" task this week.  We are thin at guard and been suffering from more turnovers than assists.  At center, our guys have been banged up.  Tilly is now playing healthy, but Caffaro is still not 100%.  This causes us to go smaller, which against our two opponents this week, is an issue.  If only Cam Tongue was 6'10" because he is a warrior at 6'7".

The savior needs to be our defense.  The Zags and Gael guards are some of the best in the conference breaking down defenses off screen and rolls and are outstanding penetrators, beating defenses off the dribble for easy buckets or kick outs to open shots.  If we can beef our defense up and cause poor shooting nights for them on the road, we'll have a great chance.

Let's put these two games in perspective.  In the NCAA NET ranking system used for tournament selection, these are Quad 1 games.  These games count the most for post season consideration.  We are not supposed to win these.  Quad 1 losses won't kill our postseason chances.  It's losses to the other WCC teams that will hurt the most.  We have eight of those other games remaining.

Winning those eight would make our record 19-12.  One upset would be huge for our WCC and post season chances.  Two would be monstrous.  If we have 12 losses, about eight could be Quad 1.  Our current strength of schedule rank is 78th.  If we beat the teams we are supposed to and add one upset or two, we could improve this ranking.

I'd love to see our team just go for it.  The crowd will be loud.  So play hard, play free, play to our strengths, and let it fly.  After all, "There's no Place Like Home!"

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - No Secrets

 

                                                                                                                      

After a 9-6 preseason record, we still don't know what this team can become as we open WCC league play at Loyola and then, Pepperdine.  Even though we aren't sure, opposing coaches know what their game plan will be for us.  There are no secrets in college basketball.  Game videos lay bare the good, the bad, and the ugly for every team.  You can look at stats all you want, but on game night it's all about attitude, adjustments, and execution.  I mean LMU beat Gonzaga in Spokane last year so anything can happen!

This year's WCC provides our Broncos with perhaps the best opportunity in the past 10 years to make some noise and rise from consecutive third place finishes to something higher.  The Dogs are still there, but their bite is softer.  The Gaels are good, but their armor has soft spots to attack.  The Dons are off to a great start, but we've shown we can handle them. 

We lie in wait like the rest of the WCC mushy middle.  The average NCAA ranking of this group is 220.  Not stellar.  None of these stats really matter.  It's all about "who" shows up on game night.  So far, for this season, that's certainly is the case for the Broncos.   

We are at our best when we move the ball up the court and get quick action to an open shooter for a good shot.  The problem is that you have to get the rebound to start this flow.  In defensive rebounding, we are at the bottom of the WCC teams we'll face.  You need the ball to run.  When we have to settle into a half court offense, we struggle.  The ball stops moving and we try to dribble into traffic resulting in too many turnovers or poor shots. We are near the bottom of the WCC teams in turnovers as well.  Tough combination for W's.

You'd think it would be simple to fix these.  Unfortunately not.  Our roster is thin in ball handlers and our bigs have not been healthy for rebounding.  We're pretty small when they are out of the lineup; exacerbating rebounding.  These roster issues cause us to put players in roles that aren't their normal skill set.

Opposing coaches will try to exploit the above.  You have witnessed it in the past few games with teams overplaying our passing lanes and collapsing the middle when we try to drive.  They get through our screens easily preventing easier open looks; case in point, our game vs Yale which resulted in our lowest shooting percentage of the season.  No secrets. 

I think we'll need 10 wins, including an upset or two, to be in a position for post season consideration.  This team is certainly capable of this and more.  Unfortunately, 10 wins with no upsets might cause our NET ranking to drop since the lower part of the WCC teams rankings are so low.  The team that beat Oregon, Stanford, Washington, and Duquesne needs to show up.  Coaches will need make the adjustments quickly and decisively.   A decade long opportunity awaits.  

Here's hoping we can answer the call!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Focus on the "Cons" to Get More "Pros"

 

                                                                                                                        

After 14 pre-season games, we've seen what kind of performances our new roster makeover is capable of.  They are capable of four high quality NET ranking wins on the road and capable of two losses to beatable teams outside the top 150.  They are capable of shooting a higher percentage from the three point line than from the free throw line.  They are capable of 20 assist games and 26 turnovers games.   So far, the thing we need to be more capable of is consistency which breeds confidence.  

All things considered, 9-5 is pretty good.  IMHO, 11-4 was probably our best pre-season record.  Our record includes wins and losses due injuries to opponents and to us.  All teams have injuries to starters, but our bench has not been capable enough, in some of the losses, to compensate.  

It's harder to win when you pass the ball more to your opponents than your teammates.  In our last five games, we have 82 turnovers against 72 assists resulting 93 points against us.  In spite of this, we were in position to win two more of those games because we don't give up and can really shoot the ball.  We have six players that shoot better than 50% from the field.  We have three players who shoot over 40% from three point range; including Carlos Marshall with a gaudy 49% from three.  This is an elite level on par with the top five ranked NCAA teams.  

To fans watching, it looks like we try to do too much off the dribble in traffic and get balls knocked away.  One other consequence of dribble, dribble is other players stop cutting and moving to make themselves available for an open shot as our opponents defense collapses to stop drives. We are at our best when the ball moves to quality open shots, which as you can see from above, we are quite capable of knocking down.

Consistency moving the ball many times starts with capable guard play.  This is still a work in process with so many new players.  As an example, we've had different guards each year for the past four seasons that were new to the Sendek system.  Not easy.  Lately we've settled on Brenton Knapper at point with Adama Bal handling late in games.  Knapper has shown so far to be capable in this role with improved shooting and few turnovers.

So, what's the key to this elusive consistency?  Pick your favorite hall of fame basketball coach and you'll read there isn't a secret sauce.  Bulls Coach Phil Jackson's said of the Michael Jordan led teams, "You prepare hard for every game and once it starts you have to let go of the outcome."

In this season, we've certainly seen outcomes that are both exciting and traumatizing.  Sometimes the simplest approach works.  As players do the things they know they are capable of and rely on your teammates for the same.  Don't just fall in love with the three, dribble into traffic, and move the ball to your teammates for their most capable play.  It feels like when we try to do too much we end up with too little.  

This afternoon versus Yale will test all of the above.  They are a St. Mary's style team.  They play slow, play tough on defense, and will try to dissect us in the half court exploiting the mismatches they create.  Good news for us is Tilly will be back and Caffaro is now healthy after nagging injuries.

So to get more Pros, let's focus on the Cons.  Consistency, Confidence in what we are capable of, Connecting with our teammates on the floor and, maybe as a Consequence of that, we'll put ourselves in Consideration for a post season invite!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Are We On The Rebound?

                                                                                                        

If the Broncos are going to make some noise in the WCC and have any shot at the post season, we need to rebound from our rebounding.  The sordid details are that in our last four games, we've given up 58 offensive rebounds resulting in 54 second chance points.  Add to that 64 turnovers in those four games resulting in 64 point off turnovers.  Huge.

Granted this team is a work in process, but we need to find a Chairman of the Boards.   Someone with a "tude".  We're big enough, but we need to play big enough.   Maybe a guy like Cam Tongue.   He scores tough inside and has half the bigger guys rebounds in one-third of their minutes.  

To be fair, we get a rebound, but don't secure it and have it swatted away.  Opposing coaches are smart learning that officials look up for rebounding fouls, but not down when control is being established.  It's hard to watch small guards slap the ball away from seven footers. 

IMHO, a similar issue with our turnovers.   Feisty defenses hold us and slap at the ball off the dribble where refs won't make that call.  They know we are thin at point guard and totally overplay passing lanes daring us to make the backdoor cut pass which, when we do, is quite successful when our guys keep moving. 

To rebound from our poor rebounding, we need to focus on the power of 10.  Against good teams, when we allow 10 or fewer offensive rebounds and commit 10 or fewer turnovers, we win.   How do we consistently apply the power of 10?   Rebound.  

That's our engine.  Our athletes are really good in the open court from an outlet pass secured by, you guessed it, a rebound.  In our Quad 1 wins, we've pushed the ball up the court and our guys got open lanes to the rim or an uncontested three.  It works.  Open court passes are easier AND prevents us from slogging it away in half court sets where we tend to bog down and turn the ball over. 

 With three games to go before league, we could use three 10's.  We're Hoping for a 11-4 preseason, but 10-5 with our tough schedule gives us the opportunity for a post season nod with 10 or more WCC wins. 

And that's a rebound we are all looking forward to!