SCU Men's Basketball - When There's a "Willie" - There's A Way

                                                                                         


With seven WCC games to go, our season results, to date, have shown the depth and breadth of Coach Sendek's roster.  Depth in that ten players see action and breadth in that it's not uncommon to have five of those ten score in double figures.  

We just need to get back our "height" to go with our depth to make a final run to 20+ wins.  While no one player makes the total difference on this roster, the loss of Willie Caruso for the past nine games, all of our WCC games to date, has been especially rough given the season ending loss of Zeke Richards.  Small ball is not our core strength. 

So I say, when there's a Willie, there'as a way to 20+ wins or more.  He's OUR Caruso, in the lineage of the great Caruso, both from Naples; one with a virtuoso voice and one with a nifty jump hook in the lane we sorely miss.  Longer term, the upside to his injury is that Jaden Bediako, as he is racking up more minutes, is also filling up stat sheets, coming off a 13 point, 9 rebound game at Portland.  

More depth and height.   

With both Jaden and Willie back, we can stop the offensive rebounding parade of our recent opponents.  The loss to Pepperdine was particularly glaring in the final minutes as Kessler Edwards made us pay with two putbacks to close us out.  That probably doesn't happen with both Willie and Jaden available.  

With the Broncos at Pepperdine Thursday, we have an opportunity to get one back at their house.  The Waves have been a mercurial team this year.  They took the Zags to the final seconds, but also lost to San Jose State, Sacramento State and Pacific in Malibu.  With or without Willie, it would be huge to get this one back. 

If we do, and soon after Willie returns, I can see 22 wins possible.  Doing that and making a little noise in the WCC tourney and who knows?

All I know is for the stretch run, we will need our "stretch" center to try take us to new heights.  And that's a view we will all enjoy!

SCU Men's Basketball - Are We on the Rebound?

                                                                                        

The Broncos had a nice rebound road win at San Diego on Saturday after a disappointing overtime loss to Pepperdine.  At 4-3 in league heading into the Zags at Leavey this week, we are on track with my assumptions pre-league of 8-8 or maybe, with an upset win 9-7.

This team seems to have a short memory after losses with three good rebound wins after blowout losses.  But, if we are going to continue to "rebound" in the last nine WCC games, we need to rebound!  

Through seven WCC games we have 50 fewer defensive rebounds and 30 less offensive rebounds than our opponents.  It's not so much the total difference, but more the trend and timing of rebounding.  In our home win versus Pacific, we gave up 17 offensive rebounds, but were fortunate they didn't shoot well; especially from the free throw line at 60%.   

In our overtime loss to Pepperdine, ahead five points with less than four minutes to go, we were two rebounds and two free throws away from a great comeback.  Kessler Edwards' two offensive rebounds and put backs, the last one with 51 seconds left, were buzz kills to closing out that win.  

With Willie Caruso still out, we are down to one true center.  Willie is progressing in his rehab drills, but no decision yet on a return date.  While Jaden Bediako shows grit and flashes of "wow" he's among a group of eight in the rotation whose lack of experience are glaring in some key moments in both our wins and losses.  

While I love the fact this team has a short memory after losses, the short memory also rears its head in game situations when we forget to rebound or contest our opponents' best 3 - point shooters at key moments.  As fans, we are dumbfounded to see Pepperdine's Colby Ross and Skylar Chavez make threes at crunch time due to soft closeout defense.  Frustrating.  

To be trite, "you can't teach experience" or resiliency.  One we lack, the latter we have.  A good thing.  The other big plus is depth.  Huge.  Eight different players have lead us in scoring this season.  
We can be a tough cover because we have 5 legit scorers on the floor.  It's been YEARS since we had that as a weapon. 

Of our last nine games, five are at home and four away.  The hardest are Gonzaga and St. Mary's at Leavey and then Pepperdine, BYU on the road.  The other five are not easy either.  

To get to 8-8 or 9-7, we will have to rebound by committee; guards, everyone.  You can't run up the floor unless you get the rebound first.  Obviously, we need to shoot it at our season average or above and cover the 3-point drainers of our opponents.  

In the end, our ability to "rebound" into the upper tier in the WCC starts with rebounding and that experience is one we are looking forward to seeing.

SCU Men's Basketball - We Didn't Leave Our Heart In San Francisco

                                                                                                     


Last week USF exacted revenge on us for their heartbreaking loss at Leavey the end of last season.   That loss sent them into a spiral out of NCAA or postseason consideration.  Thursday, at USF, we were as cold as a summer day in SF; shooting a season low field goal percentage at 33%.  As bad as the shooting was, the rest of our performance was just as bad.  

To many Bronco fans and season ticket holders, more disasters were on the way.  After USF, facing St. Mary's and then Gonzaga, a three game road nightmare was going to happen.  

But, guess what?  We didn't do a Tony Bennett.  We didn't "Leave our Hearts in San Francisco."  We took them on the road to Moraga and downed St. Mary's with a final four minutes of old style Bronco basketball - toughness.  

In the past 10 seasons, we have all seen many times where we withered down the stretch in key, close games.  It's like the full "Eeyore" lose again downer.  Not this time.  We had "Justice" enough D, DJ, Trey and Josip to finish the road shocker.  

Roller coaster.  Trey makes a big three, then misses (for him) a pretty easy layup with 13 seconds to go.  Josip boards, gets hammered on the first put back - no call - and then boards again and puts back a nifty left hander.   

Whew!  That's this team.  

We have six players in their second season; who are sort of like kids during their "terrible twos" phase.  Awful, then so good.  After all of our prior road losses this season, we have come back with a good win.  After Nevada, five straight wins.  After Stanford, we beat Cal.  After USF, down goes St.Mary's. 

Good stuff, but expect more of the unexpected during the last 13 league games.  No game will be easy.  Our next five include Gonzaga twice, Pacific (who also beat St. Mary's), Pepperdine and away at USD.  Pepperdine started the season slow, but is playing well of late taking #14 ranked Arizona and # 1 Gonzaga to the final minute before losing both road games.  

If we get Willie Caruso back by the Gonzaga home game (Jan. 30) we have a real chance to finish 9-7 in the WCC.  Of our last 13 games, seven are at home and six away.  IF, we improve our road game performance, maybe upside to 10-6.  

Better.  

BUT, everyone in the WCC is also getting better; perhaps faster than we are.  We can't relax.  We can't fool ourselves into thinking a bit of success and the new Athletic Excellence Center will get us to National status.  It won't.  

Instead, we all need to step it up.  We are not there, until we're there: Nationally ranked.  Not once, but consistently.  Complacent doesn't get us to competitive.
  
We all need to step it up.  The University, the Trustees, Fr. O'Brien, Renee, Men's Basketball, and fans.  We need to prove our "heart" is all-in to being Nationally relevant, not just some words on a five year plan whose expiration date is, you guessed it - 2020.  

SCU Men's Basketball - Can We Finish What We Started?

                                                                                                 

What a start!  You would have to go back to the 1977-78 Kurt Rambis, Londale Theus, Eddie Joe Chavez and Mark McNamera team coached by Carroll Williams to match the 12-2 start by the Broncos.

Season ticket holders and fans are encouraged about this young roster and the athleticism they see on the floor.  There are even SCU Men's Basketball billboards up on Coleman Avenue.  Surprised?  You shouldn't be.  This hopefully is the beginning of a longer term competitive move to National.  The reason Coach Sendek was hired.  

Many thought, great coach, flip a switch, and we would be assaulting the Zags atop the WCC.  Whoa Nelly!  He's a builder that inherited his biggest fixer upper ever compared to N.C. State and  A.S.U.  A program that for 50 years ran with Champagne expectations (fans) on a beer budget.  

Maybe, once every 25 years, you find lightening in a bottle (Nash).  Our Coach and A. D. are puzzled at the poor student attendance.  Consider, that our current students weren't even born the last time we had a real contending team. They came for the "Claradise" experience, where sports was not a decision factor unless it was the caliber of beer pong competitions on Fridays and Saturdays.

With Coach Sendek's and his staffs' first fully recruited roster this year, we have more talent and more importantly, depth to compete.

Can we finish what we've started?  

The non-conference season will seem like a cakewalk compared to what we'll face in league.  After Alcorn St. and our first WCC game against USD, we face a brutal three game road trip at USF, at St. Mary's, and at Gonzaga.  We play the Zags again two weeks later at Leavey.  We play BYU only once and, of course in Provo.  There are no "layups" in league this year.  

As good as we have started, there is a lot to improve upon and that will determine our WCC fate.  Stats are stats and with the new NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) they are seeking to use better numeric comparisons to evaluate team performances than what RPI (Rating Percentage Index) yielded.  

Of the many categories, let's compare three key areas that have a great deal to do with potential wins versus your opponents.  Offensive efficiency, Defense efficiency, and number of possessions per game.  I'll just compare the Broncos to the top four:  Zags, St. Mary's, BYU, and USF.

We rank 5th in offensive efficiency which is points scored per 100 possessions.  We are at 100 (1 pt per possession).  Zags are at 115, St. Mary's 114, BYU 110, and USF 108. 

In defensive efficiency, points allowed per 100 possessions, we rank 4th at 99 ahead of USF with 101.  Zags are at 92, BYU 95, St. Mary's 96.  

NET - the other teams score more and defend better.  Not the best combo for us and a harbinger of things to come and overcome in league.  Here's the kicker.  We rank first in number of possessions per game at 74.  St. Mary's is 5th with only 65 possessions.  

We have the ball in our hands more, but with a young team, we make more mistakes (TO's) and don't shoot is as well as the others.  Growth opportunities.  

Truth is, we don't have a true point guard or guards like the top 4.  Don't get me wrong, Trey Wertz has made a strong transition to point guard from shooting guard.  Tahj can handle, but he's more in the two guard slot.  David Thompson has point guard experience, but was not a big assist maker at San Jacinto.  What's the big deal?  Efficiency.  The top two teams' point guards are averaging 3.1 and 2.6 assists to turnovers per game.  We are at 1.8.  If we were able to achieve St. Mary's offensive efficiency that translates to another 15 points per game.  Useful.  

On defense, we have periods where we shut down opponents and periods where we can't stop them.  This will be a big difference maker in league if we can avoid these lapses.  We are also currently thin at center.  Willie has been terrific overall, but with Zeke Richards out, and our foul trouble in the post, we could be exposed as the top 4 teams are BIG.
  
It's not just the top 4 teams that we'll have to deal with, the rest of the WCC have rosters than can give us fits.  The teams with quick guards (like Pepperdine) that can both shoot it, penetrate and dish have been tough stops for us.  We could postulate about all the other ways that teams can give us trouble, but it just seems no matter how detailed the game planning is, winning is more about executing the in game adjustments.  Making every possession count and defensively making it as hard as possible for our opponents to score.  

Sounds easy, but it's not.  It requires 40 minutes of sustained effort and execution.  Execution comes and goes, but in this WCC season, sustained effort is a must.  In most of our pre-league games we have come out firing on all cylinders and jumped to pretty big leads only to see those leads dwindle around the 10 minute mark in the first half.  It's like we hit "cruise control" and stop doing the things that got us the lead?  Frustrating to watch.  

The WCC will demand us to be closers.  Finish what you started.  Don't let teams hang around.  Play with attitude and toughness.  In the past, it was a rare occasion when coaches needed to tell our players to play hard.  I hope this team can show some more of the Bronco grit that punished teams when they came to the Civic or Leavey - win or lose. 

For this season to be the "start" of something big, we need to capitalize on our momentum, play hard and finish what we started.  That way, fans and season ticket holders will start to believe we are a program to be reckoned with.  

SCU Men's Basketball - To BE Good - You Need to BEAT Good

                                                                                    

Last Saturday's home victory over Cal pushed the Broncos to a 9-2  start to the season.  That's only happened once since 2004.  While this season start feels good, let's not get carried away.

There's no doubt this roster has more athleticism and depth.  In our Pac 12 wins against Washington St. and Cal, it was SCU who had the better athletes and they proved it on the floor.  

That's all good news.  BUT.

We were outplayed against our only two sub 100 ranked opponents.  Stanford (53) and Nevada (95) dominated us after the first 10 minutes in those games.  That's not good news.

Looking at the remaining non-conference games and the WCC schedule, 21 or 22 wins is very probable.  Call it 21-10.  It would be only the fourth time in the past 15 years with 20+ wins.  

What would 20 wins mean for us?  It would be a nice platform to build on, recruit and for a contract extension, but if you're thinking post season bids, it's an "outside" chance at best.  Granted, it's nice to be headed in that direction after a 25 year drought, but it takes more.

In order to BE good, you have to BEAT good.  

Stats are always misleading, but selection committees do use them.  If we take out the WCC top three ranked teams, our wins will come against the rest of the WCC whose "average" ranking is 168.  St. Mary's has already painfully proved a weaker SOS* doesn't fly for post season.  

IMHO, it will take 23 wins and two wins vs the WCC top three to even sniff post season.  Knocking off the Zags would be awesome, but a moon shot.  That leaves St. Mary's (45) and BYU (54) to get those wins.  Issue is, we play BYU only once and you guessed it - on their home court.  Last chance would be a monumental upset in the WCC tourney - a guaranteed bid.

Bottom line, we need to play tougher against better teams.  It's a conundrum.  Sometimes it looks like we lack the "fire" or belief that we can compete against those teams.  Blowouts in those games are a "flat tire" to post season.  

Don't get me wrong.  I like what we see so far.  Getting to 21 or 22 wins would start to ignite the pilot light on our program.  The AEC will offer no compromise recruiting and a real future to build upon.

The University and Commission on Athletics envisioned national prominence in Athletics in 2020.  It appears the focus, commitment and measurement for that plan may have waned; we just don't hear about it any more.  What about the next five years or five years from that?  It took Gonzaga 15 years to build a bona fide National program.  Where are we?

For Coach Sendek that is the 2020-2021 season.  Until now, it continues to be just Women's Soccer in the National convo.  

For MBB, the trend is up and it's fun to watch.  We need the University, season ticket holders, students, and the entire SCU community to to be up to the task, or we'll never catch "up" to the WCC top three or National relevance.



S.O.S. = Strength of Schedule

SCU Men's Basketball - Cougars, Cardinals and Bears - Oh My!

                                                                                            



We found out something big about the Broncos during Tuesday's victory against Washington State .  Something that's been missing for a long time.  I'll call it GRIT.  Edgy, rough, bordering on Chaos Theory.  

Recent times past, against strong opponents, we've played like young colts; not Broncos.  A bit weak in the knees and insecure in our on court abilities.  Not now - not this team.  How/why the change?

Maybe there is a bit of Chaos Theory going on; where small changes lead to unpredictable big changes.  Is it Trey, Tahj, Willie, Keshawn and Josip maturing?  Was it last year's USC overtime thriller and a strong finish to the WCC season that gave them belief?  

My take, it's the new guys.  They play with a "tude" we desperately need.  It's been brewing in practice for the past six weeks.  Hi, I'm David Thompson and I want your minutes.  He's not big, but he plays big.  Affectationatley nicknamed the "sewer rat."  Or, DJ Mitchell's play, setting a "just try and stop me" example.  Keep going.  The Williams - Jalen and Giordan who have shown they can "shoot" you to the bench.  They are itching to get into the action.  
Chaos Theory at work.

Tuesday night was part game plan, but mostly mayhem.  Different than in the past, WE not only caused it, but thrived in it.  No stopping, more pressure, more defensive "stands."  A turnover by us, a steal, a block, a big rebound, an injured player returning and delivering a clutch three.  Making free throws at crunch time, the Bronco Corral end zone free throw antics, and watching the whole team, all in with their teammates.  Who wins a game against a good opponent with 21 turnovers AND your two most experienced players scoring only five points?  These guys.

A tougher mid-term exam comes this Saturday at Stanford.  Big, talented, young, and wants prove it.  They don't want to lose in their own backyard.  No matter the outcome, it will strengthen our resolve.  Click the link below for the Stanford season outlook.

Stanford Season Outlook

As fans and season ticket holders, you've got to like a full roster of guys who can play with mayhem.  I'd love to see us keep it going all season, so our opponents have to go full Butch Cassidy, declaring "who are these guys."  

They're colts, that are becoming Broncos and we all need to "ride" together to see what this team can become.

SCU Men's Basketball - "Sluggish" Won't Do vs The Cougars

                                                                                               

The Bronco's opened last Tuesday against the UC Santa Cruz Banana Slugs and on Thursday against the Cal Poly Mustangs.  

Most programs have a schedule that's a soft opening.  Even Duke played mighty Fort Valley state.  It's solely for getting the team "reps" - floor time.  That was all we were wanting from the UCSC game.  

Here's what we saw.  The coaches used their starters off and on for about 20 - 24 minutes.  The newcomers each saw 15-19 minutes of their first real game action.  

Questions were answered.  What about all the newbies?  Here's the rundown.  DJ Mitchell impressed.  Active, competitive, a power dunk high flyer, with an edge.  As for the two Williams, Jalen and Giordan, they played well and showed we have real depth.  Freshman Jaden Bediako also impressed, albeit against a much smaller lineup.  IMHO, the best thing about the "slugs" game was the ball was always moving in an up tempo game plan and open shots were everywhere.  

Different story when the Mustangs rode into Leavey.  The game started the same way as we did vs UCSC - good passes and two dunks.  One by Caruso, the other by DJ Mitchell onto an 8-0 lead.  
The next four minutes were flashbacks to last season, where we were plagued by turnovers and missed shots.  In that span, five fouls, three turnovers, and four misses resulting in an 11-2 Cal Poly run to lead by one.  
To our credit, the defense was aggressive and kept us in the game. We won't get away with the reach fouls going forward that lead to early foul trouble on three starters.  We found out we DO have a bench who compete with a "dive on the floor" mentality lead by David Thompson with a head first, fumble recovery type move, to force a game changing turnover and enable a nice run.  Vrankic and Caruso were able to impose their will deep into the second half for a 14 point win.  Shoulda, coulda, woulda, been a 20+ win, but there was no folding in this team a la Prairie View last season.  

For the next two games "sluggish" won't do.

Washington State will be a good early litmus test.  They have experience, decent size, and are coached by former USF head coach Kyle Smith, who would love to avenge last seasons loss at Leavey.  After that loss, USF fell into a four game tailspin and a post season snub that wasted a 21 win season.  They also have freshman DJ Rodman - yes the son of, on their roster.  
Forget about last year's SCU win away.  This will be a whole different deal.

Saturday away at Stanford will be another test of what our team can become.  Stanford has a combo of young and experienced talent and a strong defensive mindset.  A "W" would be great, but the experience playing better teams should help in prep for the WCC league play.
  
We should be close to full strength.  Keyshawn Justice, according to some G2 is a game time decision.  He did practice a bit,  but I'm sure the Coaches don't want to risk any longer term problems.   He can be a key piece for us this year and I hope he's ready to go.  

The team will be amped and ready to run.  The "corral" will be ready to taunt at every free throw.  All of us need to be loud and the sixth man for our team, because sluggish just won't do in this one!