SCU Men's Basketball & the WCC Tourney - Unfinished Business

Before the season started, I went on record as saying a 16-15 regular season record would put us on "schedule" to start our going national ambitions.  

Well, 16-15 is was.  Improvement?  Certainly.  Given all the changes in new staff, system, culture, and injuries with the same roster, a progression.  You can read the October prediction using the link below.  

Are The Broncos on "schedule" with our schedule?

Maybe it's just me, but I'm not happy.  

I hope the coaches feel the same way...

Why?

Because, for the first time in nearly a decade, we witnessed a team with real potential.  It was at the same time exciting and frustrating. We "saw" the emergence of players unshackled by the former system; doing things we never knew they could do.  It made us want MORE.

  

A team that blew out a hot Pepperdine team.  Beat Valpo and BYU for the first time.  Then went off the rails in stinging losses to SJS, USD, LMU, and @ Washington State.  

I'm just gonna say it:  20 wins was there to do; even with all the injuries.  After beating BYU, I think it got in our team's heads.  "It" meaning the dreaded "E" = expectations.  A load they're not used to and TBH = didn't handle well.

So, I'm sayin' there's unfinished business.  We're not going to win the WCC tourney this year.  However, sending the Dons packing in our first round would be getting some season "ownage" and be crushing to a team that has NIT hopes.  Unfinished business.

If we down the Dons, then we meet the "semi" in the semis - Gonzaga.  They have a truckload of talent and now something to prove after letting a weakened BYU team off the hook in the last two minutes in Spokane. Getting another shot at the Zags and playing them close would send another message - we're coming up!

Maybe not to the top next year, but better, higher.  Maybe we'll become the "dog whisperers" who show the Dogs who's in charge...

Unfinished business...

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SCU Men's Basketball - Winning Numbers

Everybody likes winning numbers; whether it's a Power Ball Lotto, raffle, super bowl pool or SCU Men's Basketball.  

Stat rats analyze every nuance of game numbers to predict wins or losses.  There's SO much data out there that gets massaged to evaluate, rank and, in the end, select at-large teams to the NCAA tournament.  

IMHO, most of "statisphere" predictions are not only wrong, but irrelevant.  

Just ask St. Mary's with their NCAA snub last year.  The data (a convoluted strength of schedule formula) said "maybe."  Their win percentage was booyah.  In the end, it was the 'humans" that didn't like the WCC - in some national circles labeled the "Weak Coast Conference."  

"Blue" nearly always gets the NCAA nod.  Think, Duke, Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky and UCLA.  The Gaels wear some blue, but aren't in the "blue blood" lineage.  

Or, fathom this year's WCC upsets when the "stats" would predict a convincing win that became losses.  BYU losing to us, San Diego, and Pepperdine after blowout home wins.

There's so much focus on stats and number of wins that we overlook the human element in deciding games on the floor.  More specifically, the situational standard deviation of athletic performance.  

All of us have lamented, "how can we play so poorly one night and like basketball savants the next?" Imagine Pepperdine last Thursday night coming into Leavey, brimming with confidence after beating BYU and having more players healthy.  They were swept away by a tsunami of 22 three pointers and a 75% first half shooting percentage!  Try to find that on a stat sheet for SCU who ranks 7th in shooting in the WCC.  

For SCU Men's Basketball, you don't need IBM's "Watson" to figure it out.  Just think C + T + D = W's.

That's a winning formula for the top teams in the NCAA and the WCC.  

OK quants, have a field day with this one.

Consistency + Talent + Depth = Wins

Consistency:  they shoot, defend, at a high level most every night.

Talent:  they get players who can perform to the formula.

Depth:  they go 8 - 9 deep, sharing minutes without a huge drop off.

All of the above, with a small standard deviation game to game.

The Zags and St. Mary's have it.  

Compare the Zags vs SCU using the formula?  

The Zags shoot it at +10%, have a roster of four potential pros, go nine deep vs six and with a -10 minutes/player average.  That's not a gap, it's a chasm.  Imagine Jared's play with an extra 103 minutes of rest!

  

This is what top level, per game, winning numbers look like:

Gonzaga

FG 52%, 3PFG 38%, Off. PPP* 1.12, Poss/Game 73

St. Mary's

FG 49%, 3PFG 39%, Off. PPP* 1.12, Poss/Game 62

SCU

FG 42%, 3PFG 36%, Off. PPP* 1.0, Poss/Game 66

If we shot the same field goal percentage as the Zags, that's 130 MORE shots we would have made.  BIG.

Our C + T + D has yielded 15 wins so far.  Not being negative here, but this is not Coach Sendek's and his staff's team.  It is the same roster as last season; hampered by season long key injuries.  The major C for us this season is not the consistency C; it's Coaching.

The "learning" that we've heard so much about is happening.  The strides are visible.  One piece of evidence: Emmanuel or "E." Always athletic, now he is becoming a basketball player.  

The other C  - Consistency - has been illusive.  The highs have produced two signature wins and the lows a few head-scratching losses.  Our range differential in "off" night shooting percentages to "on" nights needs to be less than 8; not 15%.  

Learning is contagious.  As the players are learning skills to be more consistent, we as season ticket holders and fans are learning that the resuscitation of our MBB program is real and has begun. This coaching staff has a history of producing winning numbers and is moving the needle up.

Chapter one is nearly complete and the story is developing.  Our odds of hitting the winning numbers to become contenders is improving.  Now, in the stands, heads are up.  There is more chatter, banter, and even a little more Cheering vs Complaining.  

And that's a C that's been missing from the formula for a very long time!

* Off PPP = Offensive points per possession.  

* Poss/Game = Number of possessions per game 

Compare

SCU Men's Basketball - Our "March Madness" is in February!

MBB plans to go national won't include a trip to the NCAA tournament in 2017.  

With eight games remaining in the WCC, we have to view those games as our March Madness in February. What?

The next eight determine not only our season record, but the seeding of the only March tournament we'll play in - the WCC Championship.  

Fourth place in the WCC is our chance to make a statement that we're rising AND get a seeding in the tourney where we can cause trouble.  Fifth isn't a deal breaker, but fourth is a sweet spot.

It's going to take a 5-3 finish to get that done.  USF and USD are right behind us in the standings at 5-5 and 4-6 records.

Here's the SCU schedule if you want to see the last eight.

SCU MBB Schedule

A 5-3 run in our 2017 February March Madness would give us potentially two shots at #1 Gonzaga.  This Saturday, at the Kennel and in the semifinals of the WCC tourney where the #4 seed is bracketed to play the #1 seed; most likely Gonzaga.  We'd have to beat either USF or USD to get that shot.

February March Madness!

The 5-3 finish would put us 17-14 for the season; remarkable considering our key player injuries.  We've played 75% of our games thus far without one of the starters!  A solid start for our new coaching staff after only 2 winning seasons in the prior nine years.  The coup de grace would be for Jared and Nate to take down the #1 Zags as their senior parting gift!

The Zags have two tough tests left.  BYU in Provo and St. Mary's in Moraga.

  

BYU may have the tougher track; playing Gonzaga twice, a roadie at USF, and the Gaels in Provo.

St. Mary's has the easier path except for a "prove it" contest with BYU in Provo.  I say prove it because if they lose to Gonzaga in the WCC tourney, they may be in the same spot as last year - bubble team.

Most all of us would agree, "there's no place like home."  Let's be honest, our 2-2 recent homestand looked like an 0-fer until Jared sent LMU packing and our swarming team "D" forced BYU into a loss that ended their NCAA at-large hopes.  

Only three of our last eight are at home.  6-2 is doable, but not probable, given 5 roadies.

So, we need to bring some March Madness into February!  Our time to make some noise.  Our "bracket" starts now.  A big move up in the WCC, in the media, and opening the eyes of better recruits.

If we "March" into February, it will send a message to all Broncos that the momentum for a stampede ahead is real - not just more marketing hype.

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SCU Men's Basketball - Breaking News!! A Bash for Nash

It's been nearly twenty-four years since a crew-cut freshman from British Columbia led the Bronco's to a stunning 64-61 upset over Arizona in the 1993 NCAA Tournament.  Up until then, just the second time in NCAA history that a #15 seed beat a #2 seed!

Today, we know it was just the beginning of a stellar college and two-time MVP pro career. 

Sources from The Bucking Bronco readers, have confirmed Steve Nash will be inducted into the Bronco Hall of Fame on May 13, 2017.   Also honored, as teams, will be the NCAA tourney qualifiers of 1992-93 and 1995-96.  

This is a don't miss event and a deserving honor for not just Steve, but his teammates and Coach Dick Davey.  In 1992,  Davey had just taken the reins from Carroll Williams, who left him with a good core roster to build upon.  Enter Nash.  Under Davey, the teams during Nash's career qualified for three NCAA tourneys, reaching the second round twice.

You my recall how Steve Nash came to SCU.  

A former SCU assistant had seen Nash, but didn't feel he was a fit for their program.  He called Dick Davey to suggest he take a look.  Nash had sent VHS tapes to many colleges hoping to get interest.  No takers. According to Coach Davey, "the SCU coaches saw the tapes and knew this guy can play!"  Off to B.C. where they watched him live and were blown away.  Coach Davey told me, "I knew when I saw him warm up before the game he was a great talent."  Their major concern was if other schools knew.  They kept looking around the gym to see if any other schools were there.  Fortunately, none were.  

The 1993 take-down of Arizona was a classic.  Coach Davey said, "We had two weeks to prepare for what we knew would be a high seed, not knowing it would be Arizona.  Practices were run with our 5 on offense against 6 defenders allowing for the extra speed and athleticism we would play against.   Rebounding, limiting second chance points was vital."  

SCU got off to a great start to lead by 11.  Then, we stopped a furious Arizona second half comeback with Nash hitting 6 clutch free throws in the last 48 seconds.   This was followed by freshman Kevin Dunne's offensive rebound with 4 seconds left to preserve the upset.  That rebounding thing!  Pete Eisenrich led the Broncos with 19 points followed by DeWayne Lewis with 13.  Nash scored 10.

This was a "stacked" Arizona team; 24-4 on the year with a roster of five future pros, including Damon Stoudamire, Chris Mills, Khalid Reeves, Reggie Geary and Ed Stokes.  

Click the link below for the last 2 minutes of that game.  Awesome!  Proud!

SCU Upsets #2 seed Arizona in 1993 NCAA Tourney

Fantastic memories that create a "pining" in all of us for the future.  The timing of the honor, a rallying point for all Bronco fans.  Hopefully, a harbinger for our future of returning to national relevance.

The "seeds" of our own national resurgence are being sown.  As season ticket holders and fans we relish the day when we'll take down the next #2 seed! 

So, let's have a "Bash for Nash."  Show Steve and his teammates some Bronco love.  They deserve it!

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SCU vs Gonzaga - Coaches Preview - "Game On!"

Gonzaga comes to town Thursday "walking the dog" with a 17-0 start and lots of confidence.  Rightly so. Their stat sheet is uber. Nearly first in every key area.  Their roster, relatively young, big, solid, and deep. They expect to win.  They probably will...

But, to me, that's not what's this game is about.

It's a measuring stick of not just where we are, but where we want to go.  An examination of the learning curve of where our re-booted program is against the standard bearer in the WCC and the national relevance we are seeking.  

In talking with coaches this week, there is no fear, just excitement to compete against another highly ranked team and test our mettle.

The game plan.  Focus on the things we can execute to maximize our opportunities to put a leash on the Dogs and steal one from a team who hasn't been road tested much this season.  

Mark Few hates playing at Leavey.  Too many bad memories of great escapes.  Last minute victories that are haunting to coaches.  For the Zags, the stakes are much higher, carrying the weight of soaring national expectations.  Few knows teams with nothing to lose often don't...

Coaches keys.  Disrupt.  

Everything in the half court flows through the bigs,  Karnowski and Collins.  They can both score it and are good passers.  We'll show a variety of defensive looks here.  Straight up with "E", show and release double teams, try to bait so we can either get some steals or force a late in the clock three.

Their guards are big, quick, and can shoot and drive it.  Williams-Goss is their main "go to".  We'll try to guard with a posse of JB, KJ, Hauser, Wardlow, and Healy.  Force the action over the high screen/rolls and try to make their looks as hard as possible.  Having Wardlow back is a plus for us because his size can stop some of their one on one success. 

It's a pick your poison, defense by triage plan.

For us, it's about executing our screen/rolls and moving the ball to spots where we know we can be successful.  Jared, as always, will be hounded and doubled to limit his looks.  This can create openings for Feagin, Hauser, Healy, Henrik, and Nate to do some damage.

If KJ can penetrate, that creates options for him to dish or finish and draw fouls.  We'll push the ball when opportunities arise and be patient otherwise - try to control the tempo to our pace.

It's a tough test.  I know our coaches and players will give it their best.  Our "grade" my not be reflected in the final score; more a progress report on our journey to national.

As fans, we can try to make Leavey SO loud to make it claustrophobic for the Zags and do our part to disrupt.  

I know one thing for sure.  We'd all love it if the Zags left Leavey with one "Fewer" win.

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Who's Going To Be The "Dog" Catcher in the WCC?

Let's just get it out of the way.  Two games in, the WCC final standings predictions are all over the place. Depending upon your source, SCU will finish fifth, seventh, or eighth.  For me, it's actually OK that we're not predicted to win the WCC - this year.  

BUT....We can be "unpredictable."

We can be the "wild horse" in the corral.  You know, the one nobody wants to ride or try to break.  For my "buck" that's a good edge for us to take to the floor.  Be feisty, stubborn, and unpredictable.   

As this team learns a whole new system under Coach Sendek, we're a bit schizophrenic right now.  That may be our wild card.  A team that takes Arizona to the final minutes, beats Valpo on the road and a team that let one slip away at Washington State.  

Ask USF.  Coming to Leavey touting an 11-3 non-con record and a swagger to go with it.  "Stampeded" by a harassing defense and solid offense,  left with a cold bus ride home and a lousy New Year's.  Nice!

Unpredictable...

I don't really care where we finish in league.  I do care about being strong against the "top three."  Winning two vs them would at least send a message:  "We're coming for you!"

You may remember, Mark Few started a "Fewd" at the end of last season when he basically called out the "middlers" in the WCC as needing to step it up.  His digs were both blunt and smart.

It definitely rattled cages around the league.  EVERYONE is upping the ante to be better.  SO, let's give him what he wants.  

The question is, who's going to be the "dog" catcher?  Maybe St. Mary's who has had success versus the Zags last season.  BYU?  BYU must beat Gonzaga once and probably finish second to salvage a chance for an NCAA bid.  

The answer?  It has to come from the middlers.  The teams Few called out.  SCU, USF, Portland, etc. have to be the dog catchers. You know the dog catchers?  They always show up when you least expect them.  That's how it's going to happen.  A loss or two when least expected.

A good spot for the dog catchers is either February 2, 4, 9 or 11. Three Zag road games deep into the season. At BYU.  SCU in Spokane on the 4th.  Down to LMU on the 9th and then at St. Mary's on the 11th.  IF, it happens, that could put the Zags in a 3 loss league situation.  In the "doghouse" where they may HAVE to win the WCC tourney.  Game on!

I'd love us to have that mindset, that edge.  The spoilers.  A win for SCU and "Fewer" wins for the dogs, would not only be a "step up" but a big step in the right direction.  Sounds great, but not easy.

Let's be honest.  The Zags have a 15 year head start.  While we we're building out our beautiful campus, they were building a Men's Basketball WCC dynasty.  That, oh BTW, put them on the national map and has created a fundraising bonanza.  

Now, at least, visible steps are in place to cause Mark Few to hear footsteps in the near future as we build back our tradition of MBB success.  

I predict we will get there.  We can start by being unpredictable this WCC season.  Be one of the wily dog catchers.  Using our "nets" by raining jumpers when the dogs come to Leavey.  

For all the middlers in the WCC, the disrespecting by Few has created a posse, bent on getting their man.   Every posse needs a great Bronco to ride and here we come.

He started the "Fewd."  Now we need to finish it!  Hopefully sooner than later...

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SCU Men's Basketball - It's Time to Listen Up

It's about time that the "voices" of SCU Men's Basketball are heard.

Believe it or not, there are lots of voices tuned into MBB.

There are the voices of the University, finally going public on becoming nationally competitive.

There are the voices of the season ticket holders, fans, and alums who have been most "vocal" about the history of mediocrity.

Even The Bucking Bronco is a voice for all MBB fans to chronicle the story unfolding; can we get to a national top 20 program that our A.D. states as the goal?

But the real voices of the Broncos may be the loudest, the most dedicated, and the best promoters we have for MBB.

  

I'm talking Anthony Passarelli and John Stege.  Most know of them.  No worries, if you don't, you will.  Why wait, here they are.  

  

                                                 

Just like we are "amping up" our program, we are turning up the wattage on our live radio broadcasts.  Their radio skills have been there since the beginning - we're just taking them to new "heights."

Passarelli is a 20+ year broadcasting veteran doing the play by play.  A real pro and a Bronco all the way.

Stege is a former Bronco player and now the color caller for us.  Stege's SCU career might be best known for his take down of UCLA's Swen Nater in 1972; where he and Swen were ejected over a convo about the "little Dutch boy."  Stege was the backup to All American Mike Stewart and Swen was the backup to some unknown named Bill Walton.

It might be a jump ball as to who is more dedicated to MBB than these two.  Seven years together calling the action and "airing" the highs and lows of MBB, first on KDOW and now KLIV 1590.

While, as season ticket holders and fans, we have both screamed and squirmed in the stands, this duo has been the one constant voice for MBB.  There for the players and all of us to make the call.  

The operation is a bit like a Silicon Valley startup.  Start small.  A budget so tight, it squeaks.  Mega hours in prep and execution.  Then, above all "deliver" quality content - live.  All this dedication for a MBB "product" that has been in need of a reboot for years.

They must be doing it for the money right?  NOT.

They're just like us.  They believe we're going national.  They have been "championing" our journey for years in the hope of that elusive championship.  I have to give them the "game ball" for that persistent effort.

Their audience is much like we are as season ticket holders; smaller, but a dedicated posse on this stampede to becoming national.

Just like the MBB program, the re$ources for the broadcasting team are growing.  Bigger station, more games on air, and now they'll be "roadies" travelling with the team to tell our story.

So, it's time to "listen up."  No more deaf ears.  We've all heard the strategy and the goal for MBB.  It's out there and we will all be held accountable.  

Yes, ALL.  We need to get behind the program.  Raise it up, just as we've been raising our voices for MBB to be competitive.  

Our part in this journey, along with Anthony Passarelli and John Stege, is to keep raising our voices in the hopes it leads to raising championship banners! 

  

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