Santa Clara Men's Basketball - The "Fuzzy Logic" Of Our Winning Strategies

 

                                                                                                              

In a world where decisions are being analyzed and driven by AI, the Broncos seem to be using both AI and a technique known as fuzzy logic.  

Through 19 games our opponents have shot the ball better than we have from the 2pt range nine times and from the 3pt range 10 times.  Our opponents have made 94 more free throws than we have. 

We are ranked 5th in FG% and 8th in FG% defense in conference.  From 3pt distance we are 10th and our 3pt defense 7th.  We have taken 100 more 3pt shots than all our WCC opponents except USF.  We are 10th in the number of free throws made and 8th in free throw percentage.  We are ranked 7th in overall defense behind the perennial leaders St. Mary's (1) and Gonzaga (2). 

Based upon the above, what rational person would believe the Broncos are 14-5 and 5-1 in the WCC?  Few, even Mark Few...That's because it might seem illogical; except for users of fuzzy logic.  The principles of fuzzy logic are rooted in the ability to reason with vague, imprecise information and partial truths and apply those in new ways to gain better control or performance.  

Here's are some examples of how the Broncos use it.  

The Broncos would love to shoot better and have been inconsistent, but through aggressive defense and pressure have made 175 steals.  We have more steals than our opponents in 14 of our 19 games; generating lots of defensive stops and more possessions where we can score easier baskets.  While opponents are shooting better than us, they are doing it with fewer possessions and, more importantly, scoring fewer points. 

We have generated 100 more offensive rebounds than our opponents, ranked 5th best in the entire NCAA, generating substantial second chance points near the paint.  This capability keeps us in games when shooting is off.  Add to this 84 blocked shots (+23) and its another strength we exploit that limits opponents possessions.  Hard to score if you don't have the ball.

We foul a lot in this aggressive pressure system.  Some of the fouls lack discipline.  Due to our fouling, our opponents have made 94 more free throws than we have.  That's not great, but free throws are usually a higher percentage, but a lower value shot in terms of potential points per possession versus a team shooting and making an open 3pt shot.  Logic.

Whether it's a real game plan, analytics, or by accident, so far it's working.  Coaches seem focused on these metrics that are utilizing the skills of our entire roster.  You can make this work with a 10 deep roster where any player from the bench can go off.  Just ask Sash Gavalyugov, now known as Mr. 37; scoring 37 points versus LMU.

Despite all the above offensive statistics, we are second in the WCC in points per game at 83 just behind Gonzaga.  We are 3rd in turnover margin at +2.6 per game and 2nd in assists/turnovers ratio. We are protecting and moving the ball better than in seasons past.  It's a tsunami of energy that just keeps on coming at teams and an attitude where, while we may not have a good night on offense, we will try to suffocate you on defense.   BTW, we have also had nine blowout wins when both our offense and defense were clicking.  Need more data, just ask LMU Coach Stan Johnson who left Leavey wondering "what just happened" in our 103-72 pounding after they beat a good USF team two nights prior.

The evidence shows our roster is performing better than in past seasons.  According to analytics' sites we have three players; Jake Ensminger, Alan Graves, and Elijah Mahi that are ranked in the top 10 in performance in the WCC - a first.  Only Gonzaga has more.  St. Mary's has one. 

Fuzzy logic aside, this is real.  The success is also fragile, in that we are still a young team and can and will probably succumb to an unexpected loss or two.  We may also pull off a big upset or two.  One goal that isn't fuzzy, is to keep winning and that's logic that we as season ticket holders and fans are banking on...