Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Have We Learned to Finish What We Started?

 

                                                                                                                 

The Broncos are on a heater at the moment, 7-1 in the WCC, unbeaten in Leavey, and in second place in the WCC.  That's right second place; the first time since the 2006 2007 season.  If feels good to be ahead of SMC.  

In our last eight games, we've closed out every second half lead with the exception of Gonzaga in Spokane.  This has been a major improvement since difficult late game losses to St. Louis, Arizona State, and Loyola Chicago.  It demonstrates growth occurring as this young roster has learned from game level competition.  It appears we've learned to "finish what we've started" and, in some cases, adding to first half leads.  

This past week's wins against Pacific and St. Mary's were great examples.  Against Pacific, we were outshot from both 2pt and 3pt range and outrebounded.  Yet, we created 21 turnovers resulting in 28 points.  Add 8 steals and 4 blocked shots surging to a 20 point lead with less than 2 minutes left. 

Our win against St. Mary's was a war of attrition.  Hand to hand combat.  We snapped a 4 year losing streak, holding them to their season lows in 2pt and 3 pt FG% and FT% through hard nosed unrelenting ball pressure building a 16 point lead with 12:49 to go.  

The Gaels fought back to get within 2 points with just 3 minutes left.  We had seen this movie many times before against SMC who are great at closing out games.  Not this time.  Christian Hammond, Allan Graves, and Sash Gavalyugov calmy made key shots and clutch free throws to close out and finish the game to the delight of the riotous Leavey crowd.  

The stunned look on Randy Bennett's face was priceless and one we'd love to see again in Moraga on February 25th.  The boisterous team celebration in the locker showed the real affection these players have for each other and the coaching staff; culminating with an entire team Aladdin's Lamp style group "head rub" for Coach Sendek.   

A great win to enjoy, but let's not get ahead of ourselves with 10 games remaining - four are at Leavey and six on the road.  While every game is difficult, four of the next five games are away at USD, LMU, Pacific, and Washington State.  None of those road teams have been very kind to us.  We face USF, Seattle, and Gonzaga at home, then USF and St. Mary's away, finishing the league schedule at home versus Oregon State. All of these games will be played with just two days rest including travel.

With a 16-5 record, post season bids are in play.  For the Broncos, most likely it will come from the NIT as the NCAA at-large bids are rare.  Conference champions consume 31 slots.  At-large offers 37 openings, however, most are gobbled up by the Power 5 conferences.  For example, in 2025 there were only 3 bids awarded to mid-majors.  It can happen for the Broncos, but it will most likely take 23 wins or win the WCC tournament.  Both remain in play. 

To achieve the above, one thing we must continue to do is to "finish what we started!" 

 

  

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - The "Fuzzy Logic" Of Our Winning Strategies

 

                                                                                                              

In a world where decisions are being analyzed and driven by AI, the Broncos seem to be using both AI and a technique known as fuzzy logic.  

Through 19 games our opponents have shot the ball better than we have from the 2pt range nine times and from the 3pt range 10 times.  Our opponents have made 94 more free throws than we have. 

We are ranked 5th in FG% and 8th in FG% defense in conference.  From 3pt distance we are 10th and our 3pt defense 7th.  We have taken 100 more 3pt shots than all our WCC opponents except USF.  We are 10th in the number of free throws made and 8th in free throw percentage.  We are ranked 7th in overall defense behind the perennial leaders St. Mary's (1) and Gonzaga (2). 

Based upon the above, what rational person would believe the Broncos are 14-5 and 5-1 in the WCC?  Few, even Mark Few...That's because it might seem illogical; except for users of fuzzy logic.  The principles of fuzzy logic are rooted in the ability to reason with vague, imprecise information and partial truths and apply those in new ways to gain better control or performance.  

Here's are some examples of how the Broncos use it.  

The Broncos would love to shoot better and have been inconsistent, but through aggressive defense and pressure have made 175 steals.  We have more steals than our opponents in 14 of our 19 games; generating lots of defensive stops and more possessions where we can score easier baskets.  While opponents are shooting better than us, they are doing it with fewer possessions and, more importantly, scoring fewer points. 

We have generated 100 more offensive rebounds than our opponents, ranked 5th best in the entire NCAA, generating substantial second chance points near the paint.  This capability keeps us in games when shooting is off.  Add to this 84 blocked shots (+23) and its another strength we exploit that limits opponents possessions.  Hard to score if you don't have the ball.

We foul a lot in this aggressive pressure system.  Some of the fouls lack discipline.  Due to our fouling, our opponents have made 94 more free throws than we have.  That's not great, but free throws are usually a higher percentage, but a lower value shot in terms of potential points per possession versus a team shooting and making an open 3pt shot.  Logic.

Whether it's a real game plan, analytics, or by accident, so far it's working.  Coaches seem focused on these metrics that are utilizing the skills of our entire roster.  You can make this work with a 10 deep roster where any player from the bench can go off.  Just ask Sash Gavalyugov, now known as Mr. 37; scoring 37 points versus LMU.

Despite all the above offensive statistics, we are second in the WCC in points per game at 83 just behind Gonzaga.  We are 3rd in turnover margin at +2.6 per game and 2nd in assists/turnovers ratio. We are protecting and moving the ball better than in seasons past.  It's a tsunami of energy that just keeps on coming at teams and an attitude where, while we may not have a good night on offense, we will try to suffocate you on defense.   BTW, we have also had nine blowout wins when both our offense and defense were clicking.  Need more data, just ask LMU Coach Stan Johnson who left Leavey wondering "what just happened" in our 103-72 pounding after they beat a good USF team two nights prior.

The evidence shows our roster is performing better than in past seasons.  According to analytics' sites we have three players; Jake Ensminger, Alan Graves, and Elijah Mahi that are ranked in the top 10 in performance in the WCC - a first.  Only Gonzaga has more.  St. Mary's has one. 

Fuzzy logic aside, this is real.  The success is also fragile, in that we are still a young team and can and will probably succumb to an unexpected loss or two.  We may also pull off a big upset or two.  One goal that isn't fuzzy, is to keep winning and that's logic that we as season ticket holders and fans are banking on...

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Could the 2025-2026 Roster Be the Best In the Herb Sendek Era?

 

                                                                                                                                

We are 17 games into the 2025-2026 season, yet at 13-4 and 4-0 in the WCC, the above headline is a relevant question to explore.  There has been significant upgrades to facilities, scheduling, and a lot more winning over the past nine seasons.  Add to this, two first round NBA picks and three NIT appearances and there's not much doubt that the program is on the rise.  Many grouse that we're still lingering in 3rd or 4th in the WCC and are without an NCAA bid. 

After the NCAA lawsuit settlement, college basketball media analysts forecasted that the power conferences and other high major programs would suffocate mid-majors with their NIL funding; enabling buying the best players and leaving scraps for mid-majors.  Time will tell.  However, a critical potentially overlooked factor may work out to be an advantage for some mid-majors like the Broncos.  That intangible is that the global talent available for NCAA basketball has arguably never been bigger and better; perhaps making scouting and recruiting acumen more important than player development.  

If schools can't plan on keeping recruits from high school or from the portal more than one season, it's imperative to get players who have solid skills now.  Redshirts will still be a valuable tool for another year of skill building, but still may need NIL money.  The options appear to be more like the Podziemski formula; one and done.  

As crazy as it seems, our roster, IMHO, through 17 games is the best of the Sendek tenure.  It's deeper, with a strong blend of experience and young emerging talent that's learning on the job (court) and producing results albeit with some steep highs and lows.  Our 11 PPG margin of victory supported by 9 steals/game and 5 blocks/game are standouts versus all the other Sendek Bronco teams.  

Despite an inconsistent offense at times, the emergence of Christian Hammond, Alan Graves, and, now Thierry Darlan to go along with the steady scoring of Elijah Mahi is keeping us in games and has fueled 7 blowouts.  Add surgical rebounding and assists from Jake Ensminger and Brenton Knapper handling the ball and we're legit.  On defense, we are really good at times, but stopping the ball and defending the wide open three's need work.  Our offensive rebounding is stellar, ranked # 9 in the NCAA.  Alan Graves is a beast on the glass and a major thief, leading the team with 33 steals.

This team plays for each other and may not sound like a big deal, but players on recent teams seemed to care more about their own stats. This team shows its chemistry through assists numbers that are better than past seasons; including the 24 against USD.  It's not all pretty, lots of bonehead plays and missed opportunities, but are all part of the learning process.  It's amazing to think we "should be" 15-2 after two late game give aways.

Don't get me wrong, there are LOTS of things to clean up.  If we don't, there will be trouble ahead as we head into the meat of the WCC schedule starting Thursday at Gonzaga and then Saturday at Leavey versus a tough LMU team.  Anybody can beat anybody.  I've included a Kenpom analysis of Four Keys to Success Factors data for the top WCC teams through 4 games.  These four factors are highly correlated to team success and highlights the difficulty of our WCC schedule. 

	Team eFG% (scaled) Offensive Rebound % Turnover Margin Opponent eFG% (scaled) Gonzaga ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ 52.4% ▇▇▇▇▇▇ 12.9% ▇▇▇▇▇  +4.3 ▇▇▇ 38.8% Saint Mary’s ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ 47.3% ▇▇▇▇▇ 12.4% ▇▇  −0.5 ▇▇▇ 39.9% Santa Clara ▇▇▇▇▇▇ 46.7% ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ 14.2% ▇▇▇▇  +2.5 ▇▇▇▇ 43.8% San Francisco ▇▇▇▇▇▇ 44.4% ▇▇▇▇▇ 11.3% ▇▇▇  −0.9 ▇▇▇▇ 41.0% Seattle U ▇▇▇▇▇▇ 46.8% ▇▇▇▇▇ 10.1% ▇▇▇▇  +3.3 ▇▇▇▇ 41.0% LMU ▇▇▇▇▇▇ 46.6% ▇▇▇ 10.0% ▇▇▇  +0.9 ▇▇▇▇ 40.9%

One thing for sure, it's not boring basketball.  We can be pathetic and unstoppable in the span of a few minutes.  For now, we've been more unstoppable than pathetic and that's a trend we'd love to see this roster build on!

Note:  eFG% or Effective Field Goal Percentage is a calculation of a teams made three point and two point shots divided by total field goal attempts.