The Broncos' stats season to date are a conundrum to say the least. Out of 350 Division 1 teams, we are ranked # 246 in 3pt shooting, # 204 in turnovers, # 211 in defensive rebounding, # 208 in 2pt defense, and # 343 in the number of free throws attempted per game. Four of our six players, who have started games, shoot an average of 56% from the free throw line.
In seven of our 13 games, our opponents have shot better than we have and connected on more 3pt shots. In 12 of our 13 games, we have committed more fouls than our opponents resulting in 73 more made free throws.
Looking at these stats, a rational person might expect this team to be 4-9 not 9-4; like the Broncos. Winning ugly, but quality wins and now ranked # 45 by one popular analytics site after losing three of our last four games. It's an improbable reality and begs the question; how?
IMHO, it's a team with a roster of 10, and soon to be 11 deep, that just keep coming at you. We live by the three and die by the three, but offensive rebound with abandon - the 9th best in the NCAA. Defend aggressively and foul a lot, but also generate lots of turnovers ranked 43rd best and they generate transition layups. That was until last Saturday's loss at the hands of # 328 Loyola Chicago in Santa Cruz which lowered several of the above stats.
In seven of our wins, our opponents shot season lows from the 3pt arc including North Texas who shot .077 from three. Our team plays with mayhem and will not settle for protecting leads of 20 only to watch them vaporize as in two of our crazy losses. Lastly, we have won games with frantic defense at the buzzer; like the North Texas win. It feels a bit like playground ball that looks like madness by a team who desperately wants to qualify for March Madness.
A win Saturday versus Loyola Chicago would have taken us to 10-3 heading into WCC league play. Incredibly, we were only 6 total points over three games away from being12-1! The losses in three of our last four games shows there is a lot to work on and improve. The good news is we are much healthier now and should get Michigan State 6'6" transfer guard Gherig Normand in the lineup soon. More ammunition.
Winning ugly is also very hard to sustain. Things can change quickly. Opposing teams will now prep more specifically to exploit our perceived weaknesses. With the WCC starting for us at Oregon State on December 29th, there will be no secrets. Not to be too "stat" happy, but the change in performance the last 4 games has been alarming; especially when viewed against the performance of our upcoming WCC opponents.
On December 3rd, we were 7-1 with the following 12 WCC team rankings in their non conference games. SCU Rankings:
Offensive Efficiency: 1st, Defensive Efficiency: 3rd, Effective FG %: 7th, Effective FG Defense: 4th, 2 Point FG %: 6th, 3 Point FG %: 7th, 3 point FG Defense %: 3rd, Offensive Rebounding: 1st, Free Throw Rate: 12th, Free Throw Rate Defense: 12th.
Currently, 9-4 as of December 20th, also against the 12 WCC team rankings in non conference games.
Offensive Efficiency: 2nd, Defensive Efficiency: 5th, Effective FG%: 9th, Effective FG% Defense: 9th, 2 Point %: 5th, 2 Point FG% Defense: 9th, 3 point FG%: 10th, 3 point FG% Defense: 7th, Offensive Rebounding: 1st, Free Throw Rate: 12th, Free Throw Rate Defense: 12th.
I know its a lot to absorb, but the cliff notes show that both our shooting and, more importantly, our defense, have dropped. So far, we really haven't shot the ball well, but our defense and rebounding held up enough to win games. There will be no gimmies in league play no matter what the rankings and betting lines will be.
Hopefully, our shooting touch will arrive just in time for league. For now, we just have to settle for winning ugly and as our 9-4 record shows, if our defense also shows up, that will be a very beautiful thing!
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all and GO Broncos!
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