Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Was the Oregon State Win the "Tipping Point" of Our Season

 

                                                                                                                           

The Broncos led Oregon State by 12 points with under 10 minutes left in the second half only to succumb to a 19-5 run by OSU; who took the lead with 5 minutes to play.  Season ticket holders and fans have seen this movie many times with our team failing to finish games against good opponents.  We had a chance to win with the ball and 23 seconds left.  A careless turnover sent the game into overtime.  

After falling behind by four points late in OT, the Broncos dug deep to claw to within 1 with 10 seconds left and we had a free throw to tie the game.  Incredibly, we missed the free throw, but somehow got the offensive rebound.  A quick pass to Christoph Tilly for a 3 pointer bounced wide right off the rim, only to have Tyree Bryan come from nowhere to tip in the rebound that bounced once, twice and then dropped in with 3 seconds left leaving Oregon State stunned and all Broncos jubilant.  

So, is this the "tipping point" for the momentum needed to propel us to higher in the WCC and a post season invite that looked improbable only 10 days ago?  Two nights after the Oregon State win, the Broncos thumping of a higher ranked USF team at Leavey showed further evidence that the tipping point momentum was alive.  

As a consequence, our team ranking has moved to 66 from 95 since late November.  However, the next five games presents the biggest challenge to this "comeback" quest for a post season invite that everyone expected from this veteran team at the start of the season.  

The tests begin at LMU Thursday night.  LMU is 1-4 but those losses are to the then top 4; Washington State, St. Mary's, Gonzaga, and USF.  Their win was against Oregon State by 19.  They are tough at home.  Following LMU, we play at Gonzaga, Washington State at Leavey, at Oregon State, and St. Mary's at home.  

In addition, three of these games will be played after only one day of rest.   For example, we play LMU on Thursday in LA or possibly a neutral site, at 7:00 pm.  We fly back to San Jose that night arriving late - around midnight.  After a short practice on Friday afternoon, we fly to Spokane to play Gonzaga Saturday at 7:00 pm.   

The overarching conundrum for Bronco fans is, shall we say, the consistent "inconsistency" of this veteran team.  Something rarely seen from our nemesis rivals St. Mary's and Gonzaga.  St. Mary's and Gonzaga's 5-0 starts in league were against WCC bottom five teams.  However, they manhandled every opponent.  

To our credit, the 4-1 start were against three of the top 6 teams, but we struggled mightily to hold on to wins against both lowly Pepperdine at home and USD away.  In our great win versus USF, we were behind 7 at half and then absolutely shredded the Dons, outscoring them by 30 in the second half!  It would be great for coaches and players to be able to replicate the specific things done on offense and defense that create these great play moments, but we struggle to do it.  

Some think it is the result of lacking a floor leader or leaders in key moments when we need to stop opponents' runs.  Our roster is deeper, but we don't have a true point guard/s that run the show.  We rarely see one of our players take charge and direct a "go to" play that takes advantage of either a mismatch or a play we can execute when we need it.  We have eight capable outside shooters, which is great, and may lessen the need for a true point guard if we have the motion and ball movement; like we saw in the second half against USF.  For example, Carlos Stewart (2.9 Assists, 16 ppg) is a very talented player, but more of a scorer than facilitator.   Contrast to the Zags Ryan Nemhard (9.6 Assists and 12 ppg) and St. Mary's Marciulionis (6.5 assists and 14.4 ppg) who do both.  

On defense, we often lack the ability to get stops.  Our defense in the WCC is ranked 6th in the amount of points given up and 9th in free throws opponents make due to our fouling.  Our Achilles Heel is when shots don't fall, our defense can have trouble keeping us in games until shooting recovers.

We'll know if the Oregon State win was a "tipping point" or not for these next five games after the St. Mary's game at Leavey January 29th.  If we do our part by filling Leavey, hopefully the team will do theirs and keep rising in the rankings and the WCC!