Santa Clara Men's Basketball - We Need A Van Halen Moment in The WCC Tourney

 

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                    

Before reading, clink the link below and the music should start in another window.  Then return to this window to read the story.  The lyrics start at 1 minute in the video.

Right Now

The Broncos finished the regular season with a 20-11 record, a 53 NET ranking and their fifth 20 win season in the past six years.  There were six signature wins versus teams ranked near or under the top 70 capped by a road win at Gonzaga.  All in all, an impressive year.  The strong schedule and all key players returning set the stage for an NCAA tournament run; yet it's no secret that we suffered five losses when we held and lost leads late in the second half that derailed our chances.  As a result, the WCC tournament is what's left to meet the season goal of making the NCAA tourney after a 29 year drought.   

The only path is to win the tournament and that's why I'm saying we need to channel Van Halen and do it "Right Now - Catch that magic moment."   

It could happen, but it will take something different than just shooting threes to get it done.  We have a lot of fire power, but sometimes lack the discipline, decision making, and competitive "fire" that it takes to beat opponents like St. Mary's and the Zags; who won't beat themselves.  They use and exploit matchups and have first team all conference playmaking guards who get the ball to their teammates in places where they can optimize their advantages.  That's why they win close games.   

There were six guards selected to the WCC all conference first team.  The Zags had two, SMC's Marciulionus was named player of the year for the second year in a row and USF added their two starting guards.   Adama Bal was SCU's lone first team member while Christoph Tilly and Carlos Stewart were named to the second team.  

There's a theme here.  The top 3 WCC teams all have two playmaking guards that run the offense with a pass first mentality, but they can also score when needed.  It's a combination that doesn't seem to be part of our recruiting or perhaps coaching philosophy.  

Our coaches love the players to push the tempo and shoot early clock threes in transition.  Too often when threes aren't falling, we also fall because we don't seem to go to our other strengths.  We  don't seem to be able to regroup; much like what happened to us during the second half huge run by St. Mary's.  We love Tilly and Cam in the post, but not so much for top of key threes too early in the clock.  Our bigs score it at a 59% clip in the paint, but 26% from three on about 140 attempts.  This takes the ball out the hands of our best three point shooters who are shooting threes at 43%.  More touches down low in the paint would be nice to see as well.  We can expect a press as it has been effective in slowing our transition to offense.  Hopefully, we won't devolve into the one on one dribbling into traffic we've seen when our offense stalls.   Suffice it to say, when the ball moves and we get the ball to our shooters in their spots, we are a tough out.  Exactly what we need this week.

Add a little of our recent defense and rebounding and we can make a go of it.  

The game this coming Sunday against Oregon State will be a tough tournament opener and the season tiebreaker between us.   They are better than their record and also beat Gonzaga this season.  They are a big team and have depth they use to attack the rim, an area where we have limited defensive depth.  Parsa, Rataj, and Kingz are a hand full and were tough for our defense to stop.   

In our overtime win, we had a four point lead with 3:48 left.   We did not score again in regulation and had six chances to pull away, but missed free throws, a 3pt miss and 3 missed layup attempts sent the game into overtime.  We had the ball with 30 seconds left in regulation, but couldn't get a shot off.   We'll need to rebound and make them take tough shots.  It's a game we should win, but our first round efforts in the WCC Tourney have been inconsistent.  

Beating Oregon State gives us another shot at St. Mary's in the Semifinals.  It's a great opportunity to play them vs Gonzaga, the 7th best offense in the nation.   We'll see if we can breakthrough and prove we can win big games.

So, we'll hope for a Van Halen run to the finals!

A Few Lyrics:

Don't want to wait 'til tomorrow
Why put it off another day?
Right now....
It's what's happening
Right here and now....

Tell me, what are you waiting for?  Turn this thing around...
 Catch that magic moment, do it:
 Right here and now!"
 It means everything....

                                                                                                                             

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Fever Pitch

 

                                                                                                                                      

So far in February, the Broncos are on a "heater" with a 5-1 record and four of those games were absolute blowouts.  While the fever from the flu virus has been going through our and other WCC teams, the Broncos three point shooting has been sizzling at 47%.   

In conference play, seven Broncos are shooting above 35% and four of those are above 40% with Brenton Knapper (54%) and Johnny O'Neill (47%) leading the way.  If you subtract out our bigs three point attempts that are not late in the clock, we are at 50%.  Carlos Stewart and Tyeree Bryan kept us in games with their three point shooting until Johnny O'Neill got into his rhythm and has been a huge catalyst in the latest run. 

The turnaround, run, or whatever you want to call it, is not only remarkable, but stunning considering the equally stunning lapses where we lost important games shooting threes at around 20% with a season low at LMU of 15%.  Therein lies our strength and our Achilles Heel in that we seem either unable or reluctant to stop shooting early clock threes when we are ice cold.  That strategy may be the difference between an NCAA at-large bid versus an NIT selection.  

To fans and season ticket holders, the biggest change in our success has been the ball movement on offense and some much better defense; yes I said defense.  Belief and team effort.  During the 7-3 streak since Gonzaga, on offense our assists to turnover ratio is at a season high per game while our three point shooting defense is now second in the WCC.  We are also first in defensive rebounding.  Less hero ball and more team ball; not only finding open shooters, but actually our better three point shooters who are moving to their spots and getting great looks.  Better.  

This final week of the season determines the WCC tournament seedings.  We will most likely be a third or fourth seed.  If we beat Gonzaga again and USF and Oregon falter, we could move higher.  USF plays at Oregon State and then at home versus Gonzaga.  Oregon State hosts USF and then play St. Mary's in Moraga.  Anything can happen.

For the Broncos, we need to continue the winning ways of moving the ball, taking good shots, and making the needed adjustments.  We have an opportunity to win 20 games for a fifth season and more importantly prove the early season promise of this roster by making some noise this week and in the WCC Tournament!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Gael Dominance

                                                                                                                                          

Wednesday night's beatdown by St. Mary's at Leavey continued their dominant streak against the Broncos; making it seven straight wins.   We are now 3-18 during Coach Sendek's tenure.   I hate to say it, but the Gaels by their standards, did not play well.  They were well below conference game averages in shooting, overall rebounding, and had 12 turnovers which was 4 more than usual.  We have to give the Broncos' credit for their effort in the first half to trail only by two.  

The second half was a "clinic" put on by Randy Bennett and his team making adjustments that resulted in a 26-0 Gael run that painfully lasted 10 minutes; pushing their lead to 52-26.  In the words of  Bronco fans, it wasn't just dominant, but humiliating.  While it's only one game, it's also a stark reminder of this team and a program, that while seemingly on the rise, wins few big games.  Sure, the wins against Washington State and, then, Gonzaga in Spokane were awesome, yet any momentum was wasted by two successive losses that meant more to our season.

Head scratching and swear words aside, how did this happen?  Here are some observations from the Bronco "chairback" season ticket holders and other fans.  

Our stated game plan was to "shrink the floor" on defense and prevent them from pounding it to the rim.  Limit their offensive rebounds as they are ranked in the top 5.  Force their shots to outside the paint and contest these aggressively.  On offense, the Broncos wanted to create openings into the middle from ball movement around the perimeter, then drive and dish for a three or good two pointer.  Or post Christoph Tilly and Cam Tongue low to get Saxon in foul trouble since he is a centerpiece to their offense. 

Game Plan Result:  The Gaels pounded it inside all game.  They drove the middle and got 17 offensive rebounds resulting in half of their points coming in the paint.  They also shot 47% from three in the second half.  Our defense mostly goes behind screens or switches top of the key, leaving their point guard Marciulionis to be defended by a big.  This creates the matchups that Randy Bennett exploits with impunity.  Marciulionis, the reigning WCC player of the year, controls the flow, but every Gael player runs their offense with a purpose each possession.  They are coached to know the matchups that are to their advantage.

They used these matchups to shut us down on offense.  Their perimeter defense in the second half was a brick wall we could not find a way to penetrate.  Time outs and adjustments by us didn't succeed.  They got through our screens or had another player step in our path.  If we got into the middle they swarmed and used active hands to knock the ball away and stop us from scoring.  Christoph Tilly made a run late in the first half but we were unable to replicate this in half two.  We were not patient and appeared befuddled as to what to do.  Difficult to watch.  

Bottom line, St. Mary's have the players in a system where they are able to impose their will on opponents.  At times, they run a "surgical" offense and defense and it is why they are 9-0 in the WCC.  I know there are many Broncos who continually say we have more talent than SMC.  However, a 3-18 record against them is proof we do not get the most out of our talent.  

It's not just against SMC.  We've all witnessed the wild swings in consistency from this team that continues to haunt us this season.  Every team experiences this, yet we seem more prone than our WCC competition for these lapses.  

Tomorrow against Pacific we get another chance to reset.  The chance to achieve the fourth seed in the WCC tournament is still in the mix.  With eight games left it will take a 6-2 finish to contend for the fourth seed.  One of the best things about this team is they forget about what's behind them and focus on what's ahead.  We'll need this selective amnesia big time over the next eight games!

As usual, comments welcome!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Lost and Found

 

                                                                                                                                 

There's one month left in our season, which can only be described as perhaps the most unexpected in the nine year tenure of Coach Sendek and his staff.  Unexpected in that we started the year with our most experienced roster in many years with the hype and hope of finally earning an NCAA invite only to open with a 3-5 record.  For a team with over 30 games playing together in the same offensive and defensive system, these veteran players seem lost at key moments and unable to finish games they expected to win. 

Then, suddenly after the Washington tough loss on November 29th, things have been more like what this team is capable of and what fans expected them to do.  Wins over Bradley, Oregon State, Washington State, USF, and Gonzaga, at the Kennel, proved the talent in this roster.  This latest 11-3 run has also produced a 6-3 conference record putting us in position to grab the number 3, 4 or 5 seed in the WCC tournament.  More than the record, our team KNOWS if they play the right way, they can beat any of the WCC top level teams on any court.  

The key to the above is to avoid any more losses to the lower WCC teams. The good news is the remaining schedule actually favors the Broncos as we have already played most all the top five.  For example, St. Mary's is 8-0 in the WCC, but has eight games left against the top teams, including two versus the Zags as well as two against SCU.  We have only four remaining against the top teams.

Earning the # 3 or # 4 seed is crucial if we want a chance to dethrone either St. Mary's or Gonzaga for the title.  It means one less game to play to get to the title game.  That's what it's going to take to get an NCAA bid.  IF we can go 6-3 in the last nine WCC games our net ranking of 50-60 will not earn an at-large NCAA invite.  Maybe an NIT?  

How can we do this?  We will have to be ourselves, which is to push the ball and move the ball to our best open shooters.  We will have to outshoot opponents.  Limit hero threes and threes from players who know they are better from two.  Attack the basket and finish or dish.  Limit the "dribbling" into trouble.  Play smart.  Our defense will have to be good enough to stay in games and hope for a few big stops when needed.  

That's why I'm going "lost and found."  We've "lost" enough games we expected to win and should have, and now it time to find again the mid-season mojo we had in our 11-3 run.  We'll see tomorrow night against a St. Mary's team who has had our number for a long time, if we've "found" what it takes to play our way into the WCC final.

As usual, comments welcome!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Gimmie "Five"

 

                 

                                                                                                                                      

Last Saturday the Broncos 103-99 beatdown of Gonzaga in Spokane was the manifestation of the talent this roster has on display at it's best.  This was no fluke.  It was an in your face drubbing with a second half that saw us go head to head and outplay the Zags in all key areas.  The win had the sweet side benefit of knocking the Zags out of the NCAA top 25.  

This signature win came two days after a complete meltdown at LMU on the prior Thursday, where we lost by three in one of our worst performances of the season.  This team is an enigma, in that when they go off the rails, they seem unable to make adjustments to stay in games against below average opponents.  At LMU, we shot 15% on 4-26 from three.  Didn't matter, we just kept shooting threes even though Christoph Tilly was dominating the interior.  

That's why I say "gimmie five."  There are five games coaches, players, and of course fans know we lost; most in the last 5 minutes some with leads of about 5. Think of what a 17-3 record right now would mean if we won four of those five?   OK, every WCC team has tough losses, but maybe not on 25% of the games in your current schedule. 

Even though we've suffered these losses, we still have an amazing opportunity ahead the next 11 games; 5 of which are against the top WCC teams.  By winning those we could finish in the top 2 or three in the WCC AND make a case for post season.   Gimmie 5.

What will it take?  First, a starting 5 that plays to their potential most nights and when they don't, adjust in real-time to what IS working that night.  Bronco fans find it's hard to understand why we just settle for contested threes early in the clock versus look for a better three or mismatch or a good two pointer.  Not an issue if it's early in the clock and we have a great look from three by one of our best three point shooters.  Sometimes it feels like these contested shots are an audition for scouts rather than what's best for the team.  We also have had 89 three point attempts from players averaging 22% from three.  These same players average 42% from two and nearly 70% at the free throw line.  They can contribute better near the rim versus deep.  

Next, the second unit 5 players need to play to their strengths and not just follow the three point shooting mantra.  This unit has three very good players around the rim and arguably are better defenders than the starters. Three of those 5 in the second unit are in the top 30 in the WCC in defense versus our highest rated starter who is ranked 35th on defense. 

Today we play a good Washington State team at Leavey.  They are a ranked # 12 in the NCAA in effective field goal percentage and # 79 in defense.  We are ranked # 93 in overall defense but 215+ in 2 point and 3 point shooting rate defense.   They have outstanding guards which always presents a problem for us.  A big challenge.  We must defend and most likely score like we did against the Zags or it could be a long night.

The talent is there with our roster.  It all depends on which "5" shows up.  Here's hoping for some "high 5's" after a great home win Thursday!

As always, comments welcome.  Feel free to chime in!

                                                                                                                              

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Was the Oregon State Win the "Tipping Point" of Our Season

 

                                                                                                                           

The Broncos led Oregon State by 12 points with under 10 minutes left in the second half only to succumb to a 19-5 run by OSU; who took the lead with 5 minutes to play.  Season ticket holders and fans have seen this movie many times with our team failing to finish games against good opponents.  We had a chance to win with the ball and 23 seconds left.  A careless turnover sent the game into overtime.  

After falling behind by four points late in OT, the Broncos dug deep to claw to within 1 with 10 seconds left and we had a free throw to tie the game.  Incredibly, we missed the free throw, but somehow got the offensive rebound.  A quick pass to Christoph Tilly for a 3 pointer bounced wide right off the rim, only to have Tyree Bryan come from nowhere to tip in the rebound that bounced once, twice and then dropped in with 3 seconds left leaving Oregon State stunned and all Broncos jubilant.  

So, is this the "tipping point" for the momentum needed to propel us to higher in the WCC and a post season invite that looked improbable only 10 days ago?  Two nights after the Oregon State win, the Broncos thumping of a higher ranked USF team at Leavey showed further evidence that the tipping point momentum was alive.  

As a consequence, our team ranking has moved to 66 from 95 since late November.  However, the next five games presents the biggest challenge to this "comeback" quest for a post season invite that everyone expected from this veteran team at the start of the season.  

The tests begin at LMU Thursday night.  LMU is 1-4 but those losses are to the then top 4; Washington State, St. Mary's, Gonzaga, and USF.  Their win was against Oregon State by 19.  They are tough at home.  Following LMU, we play at Gonzaga, Washington State at Leavey, at Oregon State, and St. Mary's at home.  

In addition, three of these games will be played after only one day of rest.   For example, we play LMU on Thursday in LA or possibly a neutral site, at 7:00 pm.  We fly back to San Jose that night arriving late - around midnight.  After a short practice on Friday afternoon, we fly to Spokane to play Gonzaga Saturday at 7:00 pm.   

The overarching conundrum for Bronco fans is, shall we say, the consistent "inconsistency" of this veteran team.  Something rarely seen from our nemesis rivals St. Mary's and Gonzaga.  St. Mary's and Gonzaga's 5-0 starts in league were against WCC bottom five teams.  However, they manhandled every opponent.  

To our credit, the 4-1 start were against three of the top 6 teams, but we struggled mightily to hold on to wins against both lowly Pepperdine at home and USD away.  In our great win versus USF, we were behind 7 at half and then absolutely shredded the Dons, outscoring them by 30 in the second half!  It would be great for coaches and players to be able to replicate the specific things done on offense and defense that create these great play moments, but we struggle to do it.  

Some think it is the result of lacking a floor leader or leaders in key moments when we need to stop opponents' runs.  Our roster is deeper, but we don't have a true point guard/s that run the show.  We rarely see one of our players take charge and direct a "go to" play that takes advantage of either a mismatch or a play we can execute when we need it.  We have eight capable outside shooters, which is great, and may lessen the need for a true point guard if we have the motion and ball movement; like we saw in the second half against USF.  For example, Carlos Stewart (2.9 Assists, 16 ppg) is a very talented player, but more of a scorer than facilitator.   Contrast to the Zags Ryan Nemhard (9.6 Assists and 12 ppg) and St. Mary's Marciulionis (6.5 assists and 14.4 ppg) who do both.  

On defense, we often lack the ability to get stops.  Our defense in the WCC is ranked 6th in the amount of points given up and 9th in free throws opponents make due to our fouling.  Our Achilles Heel is when shots don't fall, our defense can have trouble keeping us in games until shooting recovers.

We'll know if the Oregon State win was a "tipping point" or not for these next five games after the St. Mary's game at Leavey January 29th.  If we do our part by filling Leavey, hopefully the team will do theirs and keep rising in the rankings and the WCC!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Do We Need to Go to "Finishing" School?

 

                                                                                                                                     

If NCAA Men's Basketball games were only 37 minutes, in all likelihood. the Broncos would be 12-3, not 9-6.  The adage you need to finish what you've started has again proved its wisdom .  We have witnessed three late game leads evaporate into losses, none perhaps more glaring than Monday night at USF where a 3 point lead with 15 seconds left led to a crushing defeat in overtime.  Deja Vu from last seasons similar loss on the Hilltop.

This phenomenon happens to all basketball teams, yet we seem more prone than our WCC top competitors to fall apart down the stretch.  It's hard to understand, given that this veteran team has played 50 games together, yet still struggle to close out games with, frankly, freshman like mistakes.  

The latest example during Monday's game vs USF was fouling on a 25ft three point attempt with 15 seconds to go with SCU leading by three.  The USF shooter averages 40% from three point range, but shoots 83% from the free throw line and made all three.  Despite that, we had a free throw with .9 seconds left to ice it, but couldn't get that to go.  The collapse continued in the overtime despite time outs for us to set clear offensive and defensive plans.  

So, do we need to go to finishing school to learn how to close out games?  While I know of no such school, this skill would be developed in practices under stressed conditions.  

Some Bronco fans feel our style of play doesn't translate well to late game, more precise execution under stress.  Coaches like a "run and gun" fast paced tempo; which attempts to gain advantage before defenses can get set.  Late in the game and close games require disciplined, patience, movement, and precision designed to get the best players the best shot opportunity rather than the open court, anyone, anywhere shooting style.  

Our late game plan seems to be to hold the ball until 9 seconds left, then go one on one to create a shot or pass for a better look.  It seems too many times we don't get a good look or be able to find one of our best shooters; who should be making themselves available for the pass.  I haven't done the homework, but it would be interesting to chart our success rate over the past eight seasons of this one on one style in games with under three minutes left with either five point leads or deficits.  

In this past four game stretch, our shooting has been great, however our defense has not; now ranked 10th in the WCC.  Good defense stems not just from proper techniques, but also from an attitude and personal pride.  Scoring 90-94 points is terrific, but not when you give up 97.   Looking ahead, we need to be 4-3 or better versus the remaining games with top 4 in the WCC and only 1 loss to the bottom 5.  A tough task.  

Our collective record versus the top two teams Gonzaga and St. Mary's in the Coach Sendek tenure is 4-31.  It's 7-13 versus USF.  Ergo, stuck in fourth.  

We have 16 chances ahead to right the ship.  We'll see what adjustments are made to get our offense and defense in sync to turn our fortunes around.  As Bronco fans and season ticket holders, we'd like to see 40 minutes of solid play and "finish" what we start!