At 11-6 overall and 2-0 in the WCC, the Broncos have a chance to prove Dorothy right in "There's No Place Like Home." This week it will take some real "wizardry" to knock off either Gonzaga tonight or St. Mary's on Saturday or both.
GU leads the West Coast Conference in scoring (84.9), field goal percentage (.498), rebounds per game (42.5, 13th in NCAA Div. 1), and assist to turnover ratio (1.40). The Zags feature three outstanding guards, three high quality bigs, and a defense ranked 37th in the NCAA. So far, in league they've handed out 22 assists per game and have six players who average in double figures. If this is a "down" year for Gonzaga, most every team would take their production. They have won 22 of the past 23 games at Leavey. In addition, a win would give Mark Few 700 wins, making him second in NCAA history. They will be motivated. I can't think of a better time for us to send the Dogs howling back to Spokane!
It doesn't get much easier Saturday vs St. Mary's. The Gaels are patient, experienced, and efficient on offense with 18 assists per game complemented by the 19th ranked defense in the country. They also have three veteran, explosive guards who break down defenses and three bigs who can attack the rim and rebound. The Gaels have won 13 of the last 16 against us.
The Broncos two WCC road wins have been gritty; a good thing. We have four starters shooting it at near a 50% clip with Bal and Marshall at 50% and 43% from 3 point. Frankly, our shooting has been the main reason for the two W's. LMU took St. Mary's to the last minute losing by 4. The Gaels are good, but beatable. We need to prove we can play with these teams. Send a message; not an S.O.S.
Somehow, we need to right the ship on assists, turnovers, and defensive rebounding. In the WCC, we are near last in turnovers and the middle in assists. Our opponents this week dish out twice as many assists as we do.
Our overall rebounding is OK, but we give up too many offensive boards leading to second chance points. This is a "tall" task this week. We are thin at guard and been suffering from more turnovers than assists. At center, our guys have been banged up. Tilly is now playing healthy, but Caffaro is still not 100%. This causes us to go smaller, which against our two opponents this week, is an issue. If only Cam Tongue was 6'10" because he is a warrior at 6'7".
The savior needs to be our defense. The Zags and Gael guards are some of the best in the conference breaking down defenses off screen and rolls and are outstanding penetrators, beating defenses off the dribble for easy buckets or kick outs to open shots. If we can beef our defense up and cause poor shooting nights for them on the road, we'll have a great chance.
Let's put these two games in perspective. In the NCAA NET ranking system used for tournament selection, these are Quad 1 games. These games count the most for post season consideration. We are not supposed to win these. Quad 1 losses won't kill our postseason chances. It's losses to the other WCC teams that will hurt the most. We have eight of those other games remaining.
Winning those eight would make our record 19-12. One upset would be huge for our WCC and post season chances. Two would be monstrous. If we have 12 losses, about eight could be Quad 1. Our current strength of schedule rank is 78th. If we beat the teams we are supposed to and add one upset or two, we could improve this ranking.
I'd love to see our team just go for it. The crowd will be loud. So play hard, play free, play to our strengths, and let it fly. After all, "There's no Place Like Home!"
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