Santa Clara Men's Basketball - No Shows and Shootouts

 

                                                                                                                                  

The anticipation for the games versus Gonzaga and St. Mary's at Leavey couldn't have been more hyped after the Broncos opened the WCC with two wins on the road over Loyola and Pepperdine.  Ticket sales were brisk and even the media paid uncharacteristic attention to Santa Clara for these regular season games.  Normally, the only ink we get has been related to the NBA draft as a result of back to back first round selections.  Even Bronco legend Steve Nash showed up!  

Fortunately and unfortunately two SRO crowds witnessed two "No Shows."  The first by Gonzaga and the second by the Broncos.   

We beat Gonzaga 77-76 breaking an 11 year drought and Coach Sendek's first win against the Bulldogs.  Our team was resilient, played together, weathered two second half runs, and in the end it was a fade away three bouncer on the rim by Adama Bal that became the winning basket with 4.6 seconds left.  Bedlam and a $5,000 fine ensued as students and fans stormed the floor and soaked up a momentous victory! 

These games have gone against us so many times.  Fortunately, however, in all honesty when you do a deeper dive into the game we took advantage of a season low performance by the Zags, in 3 point shooting (2-20), offensive rebounds (7), total rebounds (31), assists (8) and blocked shots (2).  

Give credit to our hustle and defense, but in reality they missed a lot of open looks.   If that wasn't enough, the Zags choked twice with under 14 seconds left.  With the Zags leading by one, Ryan Nembhard, an 83% free throw shooter missed the front end of a 1-1.  Our Adama Bal drove the length of the court and scored the go ahead basket and was fouled for a 1 point lead with 4.6 seconds left.  Bal, an 86% free throw shooter, then missed the free throw.  Next, the Zags most experienced player Anton Watson snagged the rebound and turned to go up court, left his feet and had no where to throw the ball except back to Adama Bal - choke number two - game over.  If not for our 18 turnovers, we win this game by at least 10.  We'll take it!

Unfortunately, it was our turn to no show against St. Mary's.  We produced season lows in 3 point shooting, rebounds, assists, on our way to a 23 point loss that wasn't even that close.  It marked the 6th time in the past 10 games we had more turnovers than assists.  Bronco fans were touting our perceived matchup advantages but Randy Bennett knew better.  Their first offensive play set the mismatch tone, going right to Joshua Jefferson vs Johnny O'Neil down low.  Jefferson backed him down for a four foot easy score.  It was a SMC clinic in the first 10 minutes of this game.  They carved us up like a cardiac surgeon and backed that up with a lockdown defense to lead by 30.  Tough to watch.  

For those watching, key differences in execution were easy to see.  St. Mary's on offense uses perhaps the best high ball screens in the WCC.  Their screeners actually trap defenders time after time, creating mismatches for easier shots.  On offense, our high ball screens are vapor; trapping no one.  SMC just shut us down.  Our two best players, Bal and Marshall had a total of five points.  Five.  Some say SMC point guards Mahaney and Marcuilionis aren't good shooters or playmakers.  How about their assists to turnover ratio of 4:1 against us.  They had ZERO turnovers the first half.  The overriding question is why did our guys look so lost?   We've been able to shoot our way out of some of these, but not this one. 

The SMC blowout loss was followed by two "shootouts."  Bronco fans were rightfully worried how the team would respond to the upcoming road games at Pacific and at home against Portland.  Two teams at the bottom of the WCC.  To our teams credit, we prevailed in both shootout games.  Put in perspective, Pacific is last in FG % and second to last in FG% defense.  Portland is seventh in FG% defense and eighth in 3 Pt. FG% defense.  In other words, both teams don't shoot or defend well at all.  

At Pacific we shot it well and dominated the worst rebounding team in the WCC.  We made 15 three's, had 21 assists to go with 18 second chance points.  Same story against Portland at home.  We had 16 three's, 28 assists, and 14 offensive rebounds.  These were two much needed wins.  While this all sounds impressive, we've had only one game all season versus a top 100 ranked opponent where we had 20 assists and that was Gonzaga.  It highlights lingering open issues for us to compete and beat better teams. 

Turnovers.  We are near the bottom in the WCC (7th) in TO's per game and assists to turnover ratio.  This includes having feasted on 49 total assists the past two games versus the last place teams which skew those results to look better.  We have two primary ball handlers - Brenton Knapper and Adama Bal.  Point guard is neither one's natural position.  That's an issue but not the critical one.  Our offensive execution needs help.  Our screens, cuts, motion and low post positioning needs to generate open looks and mismatches.  When we don't screen well, mismatches don't develop.  Why set screens if you don't intend to get someone?  We then revert to one on one play and get stuck in a bad position late in the clock and turn the ball over or face a tough shot.  

Our on ball defense.  We get caught in too many switches on ball screens and have to play catchup to recover that results in tough matchups.  Witness SMC took us apart in the half court and against Portland where our stated game plan was to force them into shooting 2 point shots, not three's.  Well, we got caught by their high screens and Portland torched us by making 10 of their first 12 three point shots.   Another side effect is excess fouling due to being out of position leading to opponents free throws.  Portland shot 29 free throws.

A bright spot in league has been our rebounding.  We are second in all categories including offensive rebounding at nearly 11 per game.  Those are key, in that they offer second  possessions and opportunities for second chance points. 

Don't get me wrong.  We have really good players.  A record of 14-7, given our lack of fundamentals and consistency is very good considering the most difficult schedule in Coach Sendek's tenure.  Our strength of schedule ranking is 75.  USF is at 270, SMC 55 and Gonzaga 60, we are in the mix.   

We have ten games remaining with four of those against the top three. Two against USF, one at Gonzaga and one at St. Mary's.  Six against the rest.  Two versus San Diego, one at Portland, one against Pacific, one with LMU and one versus Pepperdine all at Leavey.   

Five at Home and five away.  

It will take six more wins to position us for the WCC tourney and postseason.  One upset win and no upset losses would be perfect.  There no time left for "No Shows" and we'll take our chances with "shootouts."  

Go Broncos!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - "There's No Place Like Home"

                                                                                                                 

At 11-6 overall and 2-0 in the WCC, the Broncos have a chance to prove Dorothy right in "There's No Place Like Home."  This week it will take some real "wizardry" to knock off either Gonzaga tonight or St. Mary's on Saturday or both.

GU leads the West Coast Conference in scoring (84.9), field goal percentage (.498), rebounds per game (42.5, 13th in NCAA Div. 1), and assist to turnover ratio (1.40).  The Zags feature three outstanding guards, three high quality bigs, and a defense ranked 37th in the NCAA.  So far, in league they've handed out 22 assists per game and have six players who average in double figures.  If this is a "down" year for Gonzaga, most every team would take their production. They have won 22 of the past 23 games at Leavey. In addition, a win would give Mark Few 700 wins, making him second in NCAA history.  They will be motivated.  I can't think of a better time for us to send the Dogs howling back to Spokane!

It doesn't get much easier Saturday vs St. Mary's.  The Gaels are patient, experienced, and efficient on offense with 18 assists per game complemented by the 19th ranked defense in the country. They also have three veteran, explosive guards who break down defenses and three bigs who can attack the rim and rebound.  The Gaels have won 13 of the last 16 against us.

The Broncos two WCC road wins have been gritty; a good thing.  We have four starters shooting it at near a 50% clip with Bal and Marshall at 50% and 43% from 3 point. Frankly, our shooting has been the main reason for the two W's.  LMU took St. Mary's to the last minute losing by 4.  The Gaels are good, but beatable.  We need to prove we can play with these teams.  Send a message; not an S.O.S.

Somehow, we need to right the ship on assists, turnovers, and defensive rebounding.  In the WCC, we are near last in turnovers and the middle in assists.  Our opponents this week dish out twice as many assists as we do.

Our overall rebounding is OK, but we give up too many offensive boards leading to second chance points.  This is a "tall" task this week.  We are thin at guard and been suffering from more turnovers than assists.  At center, our guys have been banged up.  Tilly is now playing healthy, but Caffaro is still not 100%.  This causes us to go smaller, which against our two opponents this week, is an issue.  If only Cam Tongue was 6'10" because he is a warrior at 6'7".

The savior needs to be our defense.  The Zags and Gael guards are some of the best in the conference breaking down defenses off screen and rolls and are outstanding penetrators, beating defenses off the dribble for easy buckets or kick outs to open shots.  If we can beef our defense up and cause poor shooting nights for them on the road, we'll have a great chance.

Let's put these two games in perspective.  In the NCAA NET ranking system used for tournament selection, these are Quad 1 games.  These games count the most for post season consideration.  We are not supposed to win these.  Quad 1 losses won't kill our postseason chances.  It's losses to the other WCC teams that will hurt the most.  We have eight of those other games remaining.

Winning those eight would make our record 19-12.  One upset would be huge for our WCC and post season chances.  Two would be monstrous.  If we have 12 losses, about eight could be Quad 1.  Our current strength of schedule rank is 78th.  If we beat the teams we are supposed to and add one upset or two, we could improve this ranking.

I'd love to see our team just go for it.  The crowd will be loud.  So play hard, play free, play to our strengths, and let it fly.  After all, "There's no Place Like Home!"

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - No Secrets

 

                                                                                                                      

After a 9-6 preseason record, we still don't know what this team can become as we open WCC league play at Loyola and then, Pepperdine.  Even though we aren't sure, opposing coaches know what their game plan will be for us.  There are no secrets in college basketball.  Game videos lay bare the good, the bad, and the ugly for every team.  You can look at stats all you want, but on game night it's all about attitude, adjustments, and execution.  I mean LMU beat Gonzaga in Spokane last year so anything can happen!

This year's WCC provides our Broncos with perhaps the best opportunity in the past 10 years to make some noise and rise from consecutive third place finishes to something higher.  The Dogs are still there, but their bite is softer.  The Gaels are good, but their armor has soft spots to attack.  The Dons are off to a great start, but we've shown we can handle them. 

We lie in wait like the rest of the WCC mushy middle.  The average NCAA ranking of this group is 220.  Not stellar.  None of these stats really matter.  It's all about "who" shows up on game night.  So far, for this season, that's certainly is the case for the Broncos.   

We are at our best when we move the ball up the court and get quick action to an open shooter for a good shot.  The problem is that you have to get the rebound to start this flow.  In defensive rebounding, we are at the bottom of the WCC teams we'll face.  You need the ball to run.  When we have to settle into a half court offense, we struggle.  The ball stops moving and we try to dribble into traffic resulting in too many turnovers or poor shots. We are near the bottom of the WCC teams in turnovers as well.  Tough combination for W's.

You'd think it would be simple to fix these.  Unfortunately not.  Our roster is thin in ball handlers and our bigs have not been healthy for rebounding.  We're pretty small when they are out of the lineup; exacerbating rebounding.  These roster issues cause us to put players in roles that aren't their normal skill set.

Opposing coaches will try to exploit the above.  You have witnessed it in the past few games with teams overplaying our passing lanes and collapsing the middle when we try to drive.  They get through our screens easily preventing easier open looks; case in point, our game vs Yale which resulted in our lowest shooting percentage of the season.  No secrets. 

I think we'll need 10 wins, including an upset or two, to be in a position for post season consideration.  This team is certainly capable of this and more.  Unfortunately, 10 wins with no upsets might cause our NET ranking to drop since the lower part of the WCC teams rankings are so low.  The team that beat Oregon, Stanford, Washington, and Duquesne needs to show up.  Coaches will need make the adjustments quickly and decisively.   A decade long opportunity awaits.  

Here's hoping we can answer the call!