Fall quarter exams ended and grades are due on December 13th. With the first quarter of the season over, it's time to review our report card. Some say the numbers don't lie, but with a record of 7-3 the numbers/grades don't seem to add up. After the New Mexico blowout in Las Vegas, all bets are off.
In our two quad 1* wins vs Stanford and Oregon, we showed "A" student talent. We shot well, defended well, rebounded and made free throws. In our three losses, none of that has happened. Our numbers vs Ohio State: 38% 2 pt, 30% 3 pt, 50 % FT, 15 TO's. Versus Cal: 38% 2 pt, 34.5% 3 pt, 50% FT, 10 TO's. Versus New Mexico: our starters were 28% 2 pt, 20% 3 pt, and committed 18 turnovers! In those games, we gave up 47 second chance points and had more turnovers than assists. We flunked.
Going 2-3 vs a top 25, a Pac-12 team, and Kenpom 33 ranked New Mexico isn't terrible. More alarming is the dispersion/drop-off from the Stanford and Oregon wins. When we're off, we're really off. In our three losses, we were outplayed and out scored 126-84 in the first half.
Every team has bad nights. Even a purported deeper bench couldn't keep us in those games. But it was like we weren't even there.
Some other numbers from Kenpom rankings: our 2022-2023 record was 23-10. Of 363 NCAA teams, we ranked 85th overall. Offense 84, Defense 94, and Tempo (how fast you play) 46th. This season to date, of course, on a smaller sample size, we rank Overall 142, Offense 129, Defense 174, and Tempo 89.
Frankly, with the higher level talent than past years and more depth, fans have witnessed a team that has a similar record at this time last year, but with stats that are well below last season. The numbers do lie in that we have season to date two higher quality wins with stats that would have suggested losses like Ohio State, Cal, and New Mexico.
Understandable with eight newcomers. However, most of them come with D1 creds and some of the lapses are just playing ball: defending key players, rebounding, making free throws, protecting the ball and success in the paint. That I don't get. Instead, we looked befuddled and stagnant on offense and defense against these tougher opponents. Maybe we're not running a scheme that takes advantage of these new players' strengths?
A big important stretch awaits us and there are no layups here. I'd love 4-2, but would take 3-3. Last season we lost 4 of 6 games and then went on to win 7 straight. We need that resiliency. I think the capability is there and the coaches need to "unlock" it.
We've finished our first quarter examinations, but there's a lot more homework and big tests ahead. Whether you grade us a B, C, or D it doesn't really matter. What matters is pushing for the "A" as in attitude, aggressiveness, that accelerates our drive for an NCAA bid and "Mission Accomplished!"
* Quad 1: a win at home against teams ranked 1-30, win at a neutral venue against teams in the top 50, and an away win against teams in the Top 75.
Quad 1 wins count the most towards NET ranking which is used for NCAA seeding.
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