SCU Men's Basketball - Can We Finish What We Started?

                                                                                                 

What a start!  You would have to go back to the 1977-78 Kurt Rambis, Londale Theus, Eddie Joe Chavez and Mark McNamera team coached by Carroll Williams to match the 12-2 start by the Broncos.

Season ticket holders and fans are encouraged about this young roster and the athleticism they see on the floor.  There are even SCU Men's Basketball billboards up on Coleman Avenue.  Surprised?  You shouldn't be.  This hopefully is the beginning of a longer term competitive move to National.  The reason Coach Sendek was hired.  

Many thought, great coach, flip a switch, and we would be assaulting the Zags atop the WCC.  Whoa Nelly!  He's a builder that inherited his biggest fixer upper ever compared to N.C. State and  A.S.U.  A program that for 50 years ran with Champagne expectations (fans) on a beer budget.  

Maybe, once every 25 years, you find lightening in a bottle (Nash).  Our Coach and A. D. are puzzled at the poor student attendance.  Consider, that our current students weren't even born the last time we had a real contending team. They came for the "Claradise" experience, where sports was not a decision factor unless it was the caliber of beer pong competitions on Fridays and Saturdays.

With Coach Sendek's and his staffs' first fully recruited roster this year, we have more talent and more importantly, depth to compete.

Can we finish what we've started?  

The non-conference season will seem like a cakewalk compared to what we'll face in league.  After Alcorn St. and our first WCC game against USD, we face a brutal three game road trip at USF, at St. Mary's, and at Gonzaga.  We play the Zags again two weeks later at Leavey.  We play BYU only once and, of course in Provo.  There are no "layups" in league this year.  

As good as we have started, there is a lot to improve upon and that will determine our WCC fate.  Stats are stats and with the new NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) they are seeking to use better numeric comparisons to evaluate team performances than what RPI (Rating Percentage Index) yielded.  

Of the many categories, let's compare three key areas that have a great deal to do with potential wins versus your opponents.  Offensive efficiency, Defense efficiency, and number of possessions per game.  I'll just compare the Broncos to the top four:  Zags, St. Mary's, BYU, and USF.

We rank 5th in offensive efficiency which is points scored per 100 possessions.  We are at 100 (1 pt per possession).  Zags are at 115, St. Mary's 114, BYU 110, and USF 108. 

In defensive efficiency, points allowed per 100 possessions, we rank 4th at 99 ahead of USF with 101.  Zags are at 92, BYU 95, St. Mary's 96.  

NET - the other teams score more and defend better.  Not the best combo for us and a harbinger of things to come and overcome in league.  Here's the kicker.  We rank first in number of possessions per game at 74.  St. Mary's is 5th with only 65 possessions.  

We have the ball in our hands more, but with a young team, we make more mistakes (TO's) and don't shoot is as well as the others.  Growth opportunities.  

Truth is, we don't have a true point guard or guards like the top 4.  Don't get me wrong, Trey Wertz has made a strong transition to point guard from shooting guard.  Tahj can handle, but he's more in the two guard slot.  David Thompson has point guard experience, but was not a big assist maker at San Jacinto.  What's the big deal?  Efficiency.  The top two teams' point guards are averaging 3.1 and 2.6 assists to turnovers per game.  We are at 1.8.  If we were able to achieve St. Mary's offensive efficiency that translates to another 15 points per game.  Useful.  

On defense, we have periods where we shut down opponents and periods where we can't stop them.  This will be a big difference maker in league if we can avoid these lapses.  We are also currently thin at center.  Willie has been terrific overall, but with Zeke Richards out, and our foul trouble in the post, we could be exposed as the top 4 teams are BIG.
  
It's not just the top 4 teams that we'll have to deal with, the rest of the WCC have rosters than can give us fits.  The teams with quick guards (like Pepperdine) that can both shoot it, penetrate and dish have been tough stops for us.  We could postulate about all the other ways that teams can give us trouble, but it just seems no matter how detailed the game planning is, winning is more about executing the in game adjustments.  Making every possession count and defensively making it as hard as possible for our opponents to score.  

Sounds easy, but it's not.  It requires 40 minutes of sustained effort and execution.  Execution comes and goes, but in this WCC season, sustained effort is a must.  In most of our pre-league games we have come out firing on all cylinders and jumped to pretty big leads only to see those leads dwindle around the 10 minute mark in the first half.  It's like we hit "cruise control" and stop doing the things that got us the lead?  Frustrating to watch.  

The WCC will demand us to be closers.  Finish what you started.  Don't let teams hang around.  Play with attitude and toughness.  In the past, it was a rare occasion when coaches needed to tell our players to play hard.  I hope this team can show some more of the Bronco grit that punished teams when they came to the Civic or Leavey - win or lose. 

For this season to be the "start" of something big, we need to capitalize on our momentum, play hard and finish what we started.  That way, fans and season ticket holders will start to believe we are a program to be reckoned with.  

SCU Men's Basketball - To BE Good - You Need to BEAT Good

                                                                                    

Last Saturday's home victory over Cal pushed the Broncos to a 9-2  start to the season.  That's only happened once since 2004.  While this season start feels good, let's not get carried away.

There's no doubt this roster has more athleticism and depth.  In our Pac 12 wins against Washington St. and Cal, it was SCU who had the better athletes and they proved it on the floor.  

That's all good news.  BUT.

We were outplayed against our only two sub 100 ranked opponents.  Stanford (53) and Nevada (95) dominated us after the first 10 minutes in those games.  That's not good news.

Looking at the remaining non-conference games and the WCC schedule, 21 or 22 wins is very probable.  Call it 21-10.  It would be only the fourth time in the past 15 years with 20+ wins.  

What would 20 wins mean for us?  It would be a nice platform to build on, recruit and for a contract extension, but if you're thinking post season bids, it's an "outside" chance at best.  Granted, it's nice to be headed in that direction after a 25 year drought, but it takes more.

In order to BE good, you have to BEAT good.  

Stats are always misleading, but selection committees do use them.  If we take out the WCC top three ranked teams, our wins will come against the rest of the WCC whose "average" ranking is 168.  St. Mary's has already painfully proved a weaker SOS* doesn't fly for post season.  

IMHO, it will take 23 wins and two wins vs the WCC top three to even sniff post season.  Knocking off the Zags would be awesome, but a moon shot.  That leaves St. Mary's (45) and BYU (54) to get those wins.  Issue is, we play BYU only once and you guessed it - on their home court.  Last chance would be a monumental upset in the WCC tourney - a guaranteed bid.

Bottom line, we need to play tougher against better teams.  It's a conundrum.  Sometimes it looks like we lack the "fire" or belief that we can compete against those teams.  Blowouts in those games are a "flat tire" to post season.  

Don't get me wrong.  I like what we see so far.  Getting to 21 or 22 wins would start to ignite the pilot light on our program.  The AEC will offer no compromise recruiting and a real future to build upon.

The University and Commission on Athletics envisioned national prominence in Athletics in 2020.  It appears the focus, commitment and measurement for that plan may have waned; we just don't hear about it any more.  What about the next five years or five years from that?  It took Gonzaga 15 years to build a bona fide National program.  Where are we?

For Coach Sendek that is the 2020-2021 season.  Until now, it continues to be just Women's Soccer in the National convo.  

For MBB, the trend is up and it's fun to watch.  We need the University, season ticket holders, students, and the entire SCU community to to be up to the task, or we'll never catch "up" to the WCC top three or National relevance.



S.O.S. = Strength of Schedule

SCU Men's Basketball - Cougars, Cardinals and Bears - Oh My!

                                                                                            



We found out something big about the Broncos during Tuesday's victory against Washington State .  Something that's been missing for a long time.  I'll call it GRIT.  Edgy, rough, bordering on Chaos Theory.  

Recent times past, against strong opponents, we've played like young colts; not Broncos.  A bit weak in the knees and insecure in our on court abilities.  Not now - not this team.  How/why the change?

Maybe there is a bit of Chaos Theory going on; where small changes lead to unpredictable big changes.  Is it Trey, Tahj, Willie, Keshawn and Josip maturing?  Was it last year's USC overtime thriller and a strong finish to the WCC season that gave them belief?  

My take, it's the new guys.  They play with a "tude" we desperately need.  It's been brewing in practice for the past six weeks.  Hi, I'm David Thompson and I want your minutes.  He's not big, but he plays big.  Affectationatley nicknamed the "sewer rat."  Or, DJ Mitchell's play, setting a "just try and stop me" example.  Keep going.  The Williams - Jalen and Giordan who have shown they can "shoot" you to the bench.  They are itching to get into the action.  
Chaos Theory at work.

Tuesday night was part game plan, but mostly mayhem.  Different than in the past, WE not only caused it, but thrived in it.  No stopping, more pressure, more defensive "stands."  A turnover by us, a steal, a block, a big rebound, an injured player returning and delivering a clutch three.  Making free throws at crunch time, the Bronco Corral end zone free throw antics, and watching the whole team, all in with their teammates.  Who wins a game against a good opponent with 21 turnovers AND your two most experienced players scoring only five points?  These guys.

A tougher mid-term exam comes this Saturday at Stanford.  Big, talented, young, and wants prove it.  They don't want to lose in their own backyard.  No matter the outcome, it will strengthen our resolve.  Click the link below for the Stanford season outlook.

Stanford Season Outlook

As fans and season ticket holders, you've got to like a full roster of guys who can play with mayhem.  I'd love to see us keep it going all season, so our opponents have to go full Butch Cassidy, declaring "who are these guys."  

They're colts, that are becoming Broncos and we all need to "ride" together to see what this team can become.

SCU Men's Basketball - "Sluggish" Won't Do vs The Cougars

                                                                                               

The Bronco's opened last Tuesday against the UC Santa Cruz Banana Slugs and on Thursday against the Cal Poly Mustangs.  

Most programs have a schedule that's a soft opening.  Even Duke played mighty Fort Valley state.  It's solely for getting the team "reps" - floor time.  That was all we were wanting from the UCSC game.  

Here's what we saw.  The coaches used their starters off and on for about 20 - 24 minutes.  The newcomers each saw 15-19 minutes of their first real game action.  

Questions were answered.  What about all the newbies?  Here's the rundown.  DJ Mitchell impressed.  Active, competitive, a power dunk high flyer, with an edge.  As for the two Williams, Jalen and Giordan, they played well and showed we have real depth.  Freshman Jaden Bediako also impressed, albeit against a much smaller lineup.  IMHO, the best thing about the "slugs" game was the ball was always moving in an up tempo game plan and open shots were everywhere.  

Different story when the Mustangs rode into Leavey.  The game started the same way as we did vs UCSC - good passes and two dunks.  One by Caruso, the other by DJ Mitchell onto an 8-0 lead.  
The next four minutes were flashbacks to last season, where we were plagued by turnovers and missed shots.  In that span, five fouls, three turnovers, and four misses resulting in an 11-2 Cal Poly run to lead by one.  
To our credit, the defense was aggressive and kept us in the game. We won't get away with the reach fouls going forward that lead to early foul trouble on three starters.  We found out we DO have a bench who compete with a "dive on the floor" mentality lead by David Thompson with a head first, fumble recovery type move, to force a game changing turnover and enable a nice run.  Vrankic and Caruso were able to impose their will deep into the second half for a 14 point win.  Shoulda, coulda, woulda, been a 20+ win, but there was no folding in this team a la Prairie View last season.  

For the next two games "sluggish" won't do.

Washington State will be a good early litmus test.  They have experience, decent size, and are coached by former USF head coach Kyle Smith, who would love to avenge last seasons loss at Leavey.  After that loss, USF fell into a four game tailspin and a post season snub that wasted a 21 win season.  They also have freshman DJ Rodman - yes the son of, on their roster.  
Forget about last year's SCU win away.  This will be a whole different deal.

Saturday away at Stanford will be another test of what our team can become.  Stanford has a combo of young and experienced talent and a strong defensive mindset.  A "W" would be great, but the experience playing better teams should help in prep for the WCC league play.
  
We should be close to full strength.  Keyshawn Justice, according to some G2 is a game time decision.  He did practice a bit,  but I'm sure the Coaches don't want to risk any longer term problems.   He can be a key piece for us this year and I hope he's ready to go.  

The team will be amped and ready to run.  The "corral" will be ready to taunt at every free throw.  All of us need to be loud and the sixth man for our team, because sluggish just won't do in this one!

SCU Men's Basketball - Who Are These Guys?

                                                                                         

With the season starting next week, and, so many newbies to the program, lots of you are asking, "Who are these guys?"  

It's easy to read their bio's on the SCU website, but that doesn't give any hint as to what we can expect from our players in the flow of the game.  It's very hard to quantify how high school stats translate to the college level.  For example, Miguel Tomley (Fr).  He averaged 29 ppg in his last high school season in Canada and dropped 66 on a team in one game!  I guess he can really shoot it - but will he at this level?

In any case, here's my completely uneducated preview and introduction of the roster from what I've seen in practice so we know who's "that guy."  

I'll start with the bigs, because in the WCC this season, it's "go big or go home."

Jaden Bediako - 6' 10"  Freshman, Ontario, Canada

# 2 ranked prospect in Canada.  Likely to spell Willie Caruso and Zeke Richards.  Runs pretty well and shows some good defensive instincts.  Will work on college level post moves and short range spot jumper.  

Juan Ducasse 6' 9"  Sophomore, Montevideo, Uruguay

Missed all last year with a knee injury.  Has experience playing in high level international competition but will be his first year in Coach Sendek's system.  Versatility will be a big plus.  Has legit 3 ball range, can move and pass in up tempo scheme.  May Split time with Keyshawn Justice and DJ Mitchell.  A player to watch.


Donovan (DJ) Mitchell 6' 8" Junior, Clovis CA, transfer from Wake Forest

All around talent.  Shooter, rebounder and defender.  Should contribute right away.  Can drop a three, pull up in traffic and hit, and slash/finish at the rim.  Anxious to be on the court after his redshirt year. Could become one of the go-to leaders.

The guards.  Depth a plenty.

Jalen Williams 6 '6" Freshman, Gilbert, Arizona

Just as he's grown 8 inches since a HS Soph, his game is growing as well.  Will spell Tahj Eaddy, Trey Wertz, and others.  A threat anywhere.  Seven foot wing span.  Sneaky good  shooter and should be a factor in the up tempo game.  Lots of upside possible with JW.

Miguel Tomley 6'3" Freshman, Surrey, BC, Canada

Will spell Tahj and Trey at guard.  Has a rep as a great shooter and hopefully will become a deadly outlet for a three off the dribble or in transition.  If he can shoot it as advertised, he will will be a huge boost for a team that last year had big scoring lapses.


Giordan Williams 6' 3"  Freshman, Long Beach, CA

Will spell everyone in the rotation.  Confident scorer.  Will be an asset in the up tempo game.  Another three ball and finisher outlet.  As he adjusts to D1, he could be a valuable role player.


David Thompson,  6 '0" Junior Transfer from San Jacinto College, CA

Versatile, can play all Guard positions.  Will bring some needed toughness to the roster.  Not afraid to step up and shoot or defend.  Could be a very valuable contributor in the depth chart in the up tempo style and provide more defensive legs - sorely need from last year.


And there's more.  

The scoring "core" five are back.   Vrankic, Caruso, Eaddy, Wertz, and Justice who gave us over 82% of our points.  We will be the only team in the WCC with no seniors or grad transfers. 

The team will have had two scrimmages prior to opening on November 5th.  All the practice effort is nice, but as coaches say, you learn more about your team in a scrimmage than any practice.

With 13 of the first 15 games at home in Leavey, we'll find not only who these guys are, but more importantly who they become, a team stuck in the middle or who knows - a team on the rise! 


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SCU Men's Basketball - Did Our Team Pass Summer School?

The 2018-19 season for the Broncos started and ended the same way.  We came up "short" against Prairie View A&M and then San Diego in the WCC tournament.  All things considered, a 16-15 record wasn't bad, but short of some expectations.

Not only did we come up short against some beatable teams, we had a roster that was the "shortest" in the WCC.  For most games there were only 7-8 scholarship players and our two "longest" players were oft injured and one lost for the entire season.  

Well, in 2019-20 we won't be "short", we'll be L-O-N-G.  

We have a full scholarship roster with every player recruited by Coach Sendek and his staff.  We will be both deep and long.  Five players listed at 6' 9" or better.  Three more players 6' 6" to 6' 8."  Six who can play guard and some that have actual point experience. 

There are no seniors on the roster and six newcomers to Coach Sendek's system.  Four true freshmen - Tomley, Bediako, J. Williams, G. Williams.  Two transfers - D.J. Mitchell and David Thompson.  Add Juan Ducasse, who is listed as a sophomore, but is really a freshman since he was injured and hasn't played or practiced until this summer. 

The players arrived on campus and immediately started summer school both in the classroom and on the court.  Summer school on the court is limited to skill/strength development and some game situation time.  Did they pass Coach Sendek's summer school? 

Convos with the Coaches say - yes.  No one likes getting a "C", but the coaches love this groups "C" for competitive.   Last season, practices at times were sort of walk throughs; harder to develop players, who were competing against walk-ons vs this year, when the guy you're going against in practice wants YOUR minutes and is determined to get them.  In Coach's system, practice and game performances earns court time.  

There's a lot of "A" for attitude as well.  They show up, ready to go and devote lots of study hours in their Library (Gym) to get better.  It looks and feels different.  Even Coach Sendek, usually understated and matter of fact, was excited about this roster at the Coffee with Coach series.

Predicted game style will be up tempo all the way.  Push the ball on makes and misses and beat opponents up and down the court.  Not as much set offense, but more opportunistic.  We have 11 three ball shooters on this team; not like last year when you had a few.  We can go-go-go because we actually have legit depth.  No more wearing out Trey and Tahj every game.  Bring on Thompson, Williams, Williams, Tomley etc, etc. 

Same on defense - more fresh bodies and more size to deny the freeway to the bucket that happened at times last season.  Less worry over a foul here or there.  Get after it.

Season practices have started and include two closed scrimmages versus other teams.  Summer school is nice, but the real team G.P. A.* will start being measured on November 5th.

In non-conference, we will play 13 of 15 games at Leavey.  The WCC schedule will be once again school or "be schooled" with Gonzaga again the top dog.  

With 21 games at Leavey, it's time for us to show up as well.  We need to get our "C" on and cheer this young team on to new heights.  The new Athletic Excellence Center raises the stakes on our quest to be National.  We'll find out if this team and us, as season ticket holders and fans, can rise to the occasion!




* G.P.A. = Game Performance Average

SCU Men's Basketball - If We Build It - Will They Come?

                                                                

In December, 2013, the President's Blue Ribbon Commission issued a report to the SCU Trustees that, point blank, gave us an "F" for failure to fund Athletics over the past 20+ years.  We were near the bottom in almost every category compared to our WCC and National competitors.  The commission's analysis showed that success in Athletics provided substantial leverage that could impact many University strategic priorities.

Gee, ya think?  Gonzaga figured that out 25 years ago.  We all know how that turned out.

Fast forward to now.  BIG changes have occurred, but with the exception of Women's Soccer, we're still chasing national relevance in major sports and, particularly, in Men's Basketball.  

The May 1st groundbreaking of the Schott Athletics Excellence Center may finally  be the "tipping point" to the trajectory of Men's Basketball.  UP. 

The 2013 commission agreed to amp up funding.  But there was another idea, a BIG idea, costing BIG money.  

Who would be so bold?  Well - Herb Sendek.  

Rumor has it, the convo came up during his interview with Renee and then at a retreat during Coach Sendek's first year.  What do we need to attract the best possible student athletes that would allow us to challenge for titles in the WCC and post season?  

How about a "top 20" level facility that will change the current notion that SCU is a prodding along, mid- major program.  An athletics' center that can stand up next to anything that Villanova,  Gonzaga and others have to offer.  

Three years and $38 M later, rising from the dirt that was an athletics program on life support, is one of the boldest statements ever in SCU Athletics history.  The new center, is the half court, hail Mary "Schott" that we mean it; national relevance. 

The "U" and Trustees are "all in."  Blue Ribbon Commission 2.0 led, again, by John M. Sobrato will be happening in parallel.  Why?  To measure progress and, I hope, go faster.  If you're going to be competitive, you must beat your competition.  All WCC teams are investing.  It's not good enough anymore to keep pace, you have to try to "lap" the field. 


Of course, there will be rampant naysayers.  Can't blame them.  Wrong A.D., coaches, schedules, etc, etc.  It's a big bet.  Buildings before more scholarships to other sports, but at least we're taking chances!  One thing we know, the limp along strategy wasn't working.

If we build it, will they come?

Does it mean that all of the sudden we'll be stealing recruits from Duke?  Uh, no.  But, we will be able to offer a no compromises program for the athletes that fit the SCU profile.  

In the end, it's all about winning, not whining.  Been there, done that.  

Coach Sendek has called his own number at crunch time.  Can he deliver?   I like the game plan - now we just need to see it succeed on the Court at Leavey...


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SCU Men's Basketball Season: "The Good, The Bad and The Ugly"

                                                                        


Our 2018-19 season ended the way it started; with a resounding "thud."   The losses to USD and Prairie View were both symbolic and symptomatic of a team that played great at times, but had this penchant to self destruct.  

The Good - three upset wins against USC, USF, and Washington State.  The Bad - meltdowns against Prairie View, Idaho State, and USD in Las Vegas.  The Ugly - the two loses to LMU.  Despite all the roster triage, we left two more wins on the table. 

Among the thousands of alums, fans, and season ticket holders who follow the Broncos and this column, there's a camp that will say "considering" the loss of K.J. Feagin, Matt Hauser, and the injuries that shrunk our roster to seven scholarship players, this was a really good outcome.  I'm not in that camp.  

This was a talented team capable of better; but needed more.  More depth, more experience and more rest.  We played 20 of our 31 games with only eight scholarship players.  In the past 10 years, there have been just three other first year players who have logged more minutes in their first season than our only two guards.  

When you factor in transfers, we had eight first year new to the program players.  This steep learning curve reared its head in the five above mentioned losses; three of which we held significant halftime leads.  Our inconsistency was bi-polar; not chronic and very hard to stomach.

We didn't have one "go to" leader to stand up and take charge when we needed it most.  Say what you will, but IMHO, at crucial times this team lacked the will or stamina to compete when severely challenged.

OK, Freshman and Sophomore lineup, prone to errors, I get it.  BUT, what I don't get, is the lack of aggressive response and fundamentals when in the process of squandering big leads?  After twenty, maybe thirty games into the season, shouldn't our offense have "learned" to execute a play and get a good shot from one of our scorers?  Many times, when we did get a good shot, we missed repeatedly.  How about get the ball in bounds or up court or down low to a well positioned player instead of resorting to late in the clock dribbling one on ones?  How about a defensive stop or key rebound?  

That's where you need someone to step up.  We had plenty of guys, who in the moment, tried to be that go to.  In some cases, we made big plays, but during the tsunami of losing leads with LMU, we didn't have the "one" to settle us down.  Grab a key rebound, draw a foul to get free throws, make a great pass for a score. 

For all our offensive sins, most turnovers in the WCC, it was our defense that wavered most of the year.  Last in steals and from 7th to 9th in overall rebounding categories.  The most glaring example may have been our last game at LMU.  Ahead 19 at half and by 14 with 11:41 to go, we went 6 minutes without a point.  With 7:24 to go, we turned it over four times AND gave up seven offensive rebounds to lose by two....Bi-polar.

Hard to watch.  As bad as The W.tv is, this was worse.  You can't coach experience, but you can motivate effort.  Just review what USD did to us last Friday in the WCC Tournament and what they did to BYU the next night.  Yes, they have more experience, but they also had a lot of heart in the face of back to back to back games.

All in all, a 16-15 season was just OK.  Could have been better and certainly worse.  The impatience level for alums and fans for us to get better is very high.  Coach Sendek and his staff have produced two winning seasons in their first three years.  Next season, for the first time, the coaches will have their own hand-picked roster and will need to "own" more winning and challenge the WCC top three.

It was a year of WOW and WOE.  We've seen "The Good, The Bad and The Ugly."  I'm ready to see a different movie - something along the lines of the "Rocky" theme; where we learn to punch our way into the mix in the WCC and beyond.  

SCU Men's Basketball - Sixth - The Hard Way

                                                                           

In Las Vegas, you can bet the odds on just about anything.

While nothing has been easy in the WCC this season, falling from fifth to sixth in the Tournament seeding lowered our odds to advance and do some late season damage.  LMU just seems to have our "number."

Our tournament outlook, to use a Craps' term, is a "hard six."  At fifth we would have played the winner of Pepperdine/Pacific; against who we were 4-0 in league.  If we had won that game, we would have faced USF in the quarterfinals. 

Sixth means we will probably play USD; who should handle Portland.  Then, IF we get by USD, we have to go through BYU AND St. Mary's to advance.  That's why I call it a "hard six."  

Since 2007, we are 4 - 56 vs BYU and SMC.  With Coach Sendek, we are 1-13.  Long odds. 

BTW, the odds of a "hard six" happening in dice is < 3%.

USD is a tough out.  They are healthy and are  4-0 against USF and LMU.  In our win vs USD, they were without their starting point guard, Isaiah Wright, who is averaging 20ppg in his last two games.  Wright is not the only Isaiah to worry about.  Their "go to" player is senior 6' 7" forward Isaiah Pineiro.  He's a load at 19 points and 10 rebounds a game.  They start four seniors and a sophomore.  Experienced.  

To get by USD, we'll need to put together our two best "first half's" since our second half performances have been very inconsistent.  A winning formula for us will be to shoot it at our season average and to have more assists than turnovers.  

It would be great to get another shot at BYU on a neutral court. 

Eventually, one team will get the chance to meet Gonzaga in the final.  My sleeper pick is LMU.  They beat USF in San Francisco and have the best defense in the WCC; allowing only 59.5 points per game.   

The tournament will be the measure of how much we have "learned" in 30 games.  We all know, this season to date, we've been short on many things.  Guards, roster depth, rebounding, experience, and consistency to name a few.  

That's why we have "long odds" to make a run in the WCC tourney; where nothing is easy and we'll have to overcome the "hard six" seeding to feel like we're a team and a program on the rise.  

SCU Men's Basketball - The "Fifth" Perspective

                                                                       


With two games remaining we are in a position to place fifth in the WCC.  I guess when the media predictors pick you to be ninth, fifth looks much better.  The cliff-hanger home win vs # 50 ranked USF made us think, we have something going on here.  Helps to erase some of the sting of the big scoring margin losses to the top three, after which you may have felt like you should drink a "fifth" of something.

We could fall to sixth if we lose @ LMU who would then own the tiebreaker with us.  Nothing is set and there's a lot to shake out, but worst case we finish sixth.

So, is it better for us to be fifth or be sixth going into the tournament?  My recommendation is, gimmie five...

Here's why.  IF SMC, USF, and BYU all finish at 11-5, then USF should end up in second place as they own the tiebreaker with BYU, as they beat them twice and St. Mary's split with them.  St. Mary's should fall to third as they split with USF and BYU lost to USF twice.  Got that?? 

Fifth means we will probably play USD or Pacific.  It also means if we win that one, we would most likely play BYU in quarterfinals. 
Sixth means we play either Pepperdine or Portland.  If we win that round we would play St. Mary's in the quarters.  

IMHO, I like our chances vs BYU on a neutral court vs St. Mary's who dissected us twice this season. We were in the game with BYU in Provo; where arguably we were a couple of phantom calls away from overtime.  We weren't really close with either St. Mary's efforts eventually losing by 11 at home, but were down 23 points midway through the second half.  Our records vs both is not good, but St. Mary's just seems to pick us apart where BYU has a more run and gun approach; subject to some really poor shooting spells and turnovers.  

So, I'll take Fifth on this one.  At the end of the day if we win the first two tourney games we run into the Zags.  The Fifth Estate wouldn't give us very good odds on that one...

So, I'm going with Fifth, even if I have to "take the fifth" to not self incriminate, but I guess I've already done that.  This equates to a 17 win season.  Not that anyone cares about history, but that would be only the third time in the past 19 years with more than 17 wins.   Three....Ugh.  

Ironically, the quarterfinals is the fifth Men's game of the tournament and if we get there it would be our fifth consecutive win - Karma.   


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SCU Men's Basketball - Are We in Position to Finish This Season?

                                                             

With a record of 13-12, are we in position or out of position to finish our season with a winning record? 
  
Last week's games typified our entire season.  A superb road win at Pepperdine and then a close road loss at USF.  A seesaw year that began with significant roster changes that has resulted in too many turnovers per game.

Not that history matters, but you have to go back 10 years to find a higher T.O. number.  The stat that is our Achilles' Heel this season is the points scored against us via turnovers.  In a sampling of eight recent games, four wins and four losses, the points scored against us off turnovers is 124.  More grist in league play, we are averaging more turnovers, 14.4, than assists; 11.

It's an awkward position to be in when most of your starters are playing out of their normal position.  On top of all that, four starters are in their first year in Coach Sendek's system.  I guess the result of all the roster turnover is more turnovers.  

Should be an easy coaching fix.  Right.  Imagine the situation.  Lose three starters to injury and all your point guards.  Convert your only two remaining guards, who were recruited as shooting guards to play point with no/little D1 experience.  No problem.

In business, it might be like asking your best salesperson to become your CFO...or a history teacher forced to teach calculus ?

I'm NOT trying to give the coaches a pass, even with better athletes, it's a hard thing for first year players to learn a new position at a new level of competition.  All of these growing pains are unfolding in front of our season ticket holders and fans who don't have much patience left after waiting 20+ seasons...

Paradoxically, even though our players are playing out of position, we are in a position to finish with a winning record. 

Of our five remaining games, three are at home (SMC, Pacific, USF) and two away (LMU, Portland).  Going 3-2 would be great ending at 16-14 and 8-8 in league.  We can't take anything for granted.  FYI, LMU is 10-2 at home this year.  Even with a 2-3 outcome, we finish the season 15-15 and 7-9 in the WCC. 

IF we can do 8-8 in league and the other teams achieve their expected wins, it creates a potential logjam in the final league standings and an interesting seeding for the WCC tourney.  At 8-8 we could finish as high as solo 5th.  The shakeout at the top between SMC, BYU, and USF will determine our fate as will what happens with Pepperdine, USD, and LMU.

Of the top tier teams SMC and USF have easier schedules than BYU.  My pick is for USF, SMC, and BYU to all finish 11-5.  BYU and USF could run the table and get to 12-4.  Doubtful.

We are in the mushy middle with Pepperdine (5-6), LMU (5-6) and USD (5-5).  All of them have the tougher schedules remaining.  Pepp plays away at USF, SMC, and Gonzaga.  LMU plays at home vs  Gonzaga and BYU, then away at USF.  USD has BYU twice, SMC, Gonzaga, and at USF.  Ugh...

If it comes down to us and Pepperdine for 5th place at 8-8 or 7-9, we own the head to head tiebreaker with them.  

We have a lot to play for.  We all wonder, "which SCU team" is going to show up.  The team that lost to Prairie View or the team that beat USC?  

As season ticket holders and fans, we'll be in our usual positions at Leavey helping to rally our guys to "turn it up" rather than turn it over.



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Santa Clara Athletics - What's Our Program "G.P.A."

                                                                   

Three and a half years ago, Fr. Engh's Blue Ribbon Commission on Athletics and the Trustees made the decision to invest in Santa Clara Athletics with the goal to become nationally relevant in major sports by the 2020-21 season.  

Their first major decision was the hiring of Dr. Renee Baumgartner as Athletics Director.  

Now, three + years into the makeover, I was wondering, where are we?  What is our athletics "G.P.A." - Game Performances Average?  

There's no question, the entire foundation of athletics has been turned on its ear, from a program that was on was on life support funding for 50 years, to one that has "venture fund" type capital to invest and resuscitate our Athletics' reputation.  

I can just imagine what the A.D. search committee presented as the challenges to overcome.  "We have a rich tradition of Athletic success that we wish to re-invigorate and get to National relevance.  You'll have our full support and commitment do this.  A couple of things you should know as you consider this opportunity."

Your Athletics' operating budget is the lowest in the WCC.
Your major sports recruiting budget is constrained. 
You have 40 fewer scholarships than your WCC competitors. 
Your athletics' facilities are outdated and need a make over.
Many of your coaches have to fundraise to make ends meet.
It has been 20+ years since two of your most visible major sports, Men's Basketball and Baseball's, last NCAA tournament appearance.
Your alums and fan base feel dis-connected to the program.
The students who would support you, weren't yet born the last time Men's Basketball went to the NCAA tournament.

BUT, there are also positives.  In 2015, you'll inherit a strong group of coaches and teams.  W. Soccer is a perennial NCAA tournament team and already a national power.  W. Basketball had a good 2015 -16 season earning a WNIT bid after 11 years since their last NCAA invite.  W. Volleyball made the NCAA tournament in 2015 and has 11 other NCAA trips from 2000-2018.  Lastly, M. Soccer made the 2015 NCAA tourney after a five year hiatus. 

Sounds like the "dream" job, doesn't it?  You're hired!  Now go win WCC titles and get Men's Basketball and Baseball to the NCAA tournament, preferably now, but certainly by the 2020-21 season...

I admire the dedication of all the prior coaches and what they accomplished with these constraints.

So, after all the above, what's changed?  Is our G.P.A. in major sports on track to national relevance?  Honestly, there's been massive changes, but at mid-terms, our G.P.A. is a work in progress.

Consider this.  Since July 2015, out of the seven most visible programs mentioned above, there are five new coaches; most of them in their first or second seasons.  Complete reboot.
Culturally, winning is a real coaching measurement.  Gone are the Kumbya days of "nice try."
The scholarship deltas vs other WCC schools is being whittled down, but still a long way to go.  For example, with more scholarships, Men's Golf has been able to earn their highest national ranking.  
Coaches no longer have to fundraise to make their program budget work.  
Facilities have had a big make over and are actually starting to look like a top tier D1 program.  The newly approved Athletic Excellence Center will make a major statement about where our program wants to go; much like what the amazing Campus build out has done for our academic reputation.  
Recruiting budgets now support more international travel where we can build an SCU pipeline of players. 
There is real marketing money not only for game day promotions, but to legitimize "stampede ahead" as part of our active branding strategy.
Additional Athletic support staffing has been beefed up with experienced people to provide more horsepower to make our teams more successful.

As alums and fans. we take our pot shots that we're still not winning enough and competitive with the top three in WCC MBB as well as complaints that Renee and Coach Sendek were the wrong choices - one inexperienced and the other past his prime.  

I'm as impatient as the next person, but sometimes I feel like my/our arrogance gets in the way of reality.  I'll call it the "big hat, no cattle" syndrome.  

The expectations that just because we're Santa Clara we should just be better without laying the foundation and doing the hard work it takes to actually get better.  That it's somehow easy to reverse 50 years of athletic program mediocrity in three years.

I wish it was - and I hate it that it's not.

But, the BIGGEST thing for me is that we ARE investing!  Building a foundation with real money and commitment not have just a "one and done," but sustained successes.  Mistakes and missteps are going to happen.  This is uncharted territory for SCU - actually saying out loud and trying to achieve national relevance.  

SCU is arguably best suited among the WCC teams not named Gonzaga or BYU to get it done.  It's not just big thinking that makes this happen, but big $$$$.   Our new Billion dollar campaign speaks to this overall vision.  I haven't heard of any other WCC school even dream about; let alone raising a Billion.  

I have no idea if Renee and Coach Sendek can get us there on the Athletics and MBB fronts.  I do know they're putting in the work.  

Right now our Athletic's G.P.A. is about a 2.5 or C+.  A strong foundation for the long term is happening.  However, since 2015, there's not enough winning in major sports.  Five new head coaches and staffs are working hard to build contenders.  For example, Men's Baseball, under first year coach Rusty 
Filter, doubled their prior year win total finishing with a 26-26 season.   FYI, Baseball hasn't had a break even or better season in nine years.  

Men's Basketball is still floundering against the WCC top three in what's become a "triage" season.  Three starters lost and four of the guys playing new positions.  Of our last seven games, four are on the road and three are at Leavey - including St. Mary's and USF.

There's lots of learning and studying going on and finals are approaching - "national relevance by 2020-21."

It's certainly a roller coaster, but a ride I'd rather be on than just sitting on the sidelines like the past 50 years.


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SCU Men's Basketball - Last Week was "Weak"

                                                                   

Last week was a tough one, not just for the players and coaches, but for our whole MBB program.  An all time record loss blowout by Gonzaga followed by a blown second half at home vs LMU.

It couldn't have come at a worse time.  Just when upbeat feelings of seven straight wins and some bounce back wins after road losses had Bronco fans believing again - just maybe.

It's a conundrum.  How do our young players perform so well under pressure with O.T. wins over USC and a road win at Washington State?  Followed by second half comeback wins over Pepperdine and Pacific?  Then whoosh, gone.  Program momentum capital squandered.  

Coach Sendek's pillars of "learn and improve" seemed to be taking root, then came the "root canal" of last week.  Ouch!  

There are lots of Bronco alums and fans who talk about getting MBB back to the successes of the "good  old" days.  Well, honestly, with the exception of the Nash years, maybe not that good.  Chew on this.

Since the 1970-71 season, in 48 years of Bronco MBB have exactly three WCC titles, two of them Co-Champs.  Three.  We have four NCAA appearances.  Three with the Steve Nash teams.  That's it folks.  48 years!!!

Maybe our best performances were our four NIT appearances; two of which, '88 & '89, were with a roster that was without superstars. 

Now, all of the sudden we're supposed to be a WCC top level team in Coach Sendek's third season.  Dream on...At LEAST, after 48 years of flat-lined MBB budgets, the University leadership team is investing.  We don't know if Coach Sendek and his staff can get us to a national level or not.  We'll find out in 2-3 more years.  Right now, a long way to go.  

My/our biggest hope is that the Trustees remain strong and committed for the long term.  Don't give in and don't accept mediocrity.  It took Gonzaga nearly 26 years to become relevant.  After all their NCAA run successes, IMHO it wasn't until the past four seasons that the power conference teams took them seriously.  

Our team acts like the have the "terrible two's."  As parents/coaches, we know the act.  They have wonderful minutes of being the greatest child, taught by the best parents ever, followed by hours and hours of going rogue; where nothing seems to work.  Meltdowns.  Just like the LMU game.  

The team practices the offense and defense every single day.  How do they seem to forget what to do, come completely unraveled?  Forget to play basketball?  With a short roster, is it fatigue?

That's why last week was "weak."  Whatever "will" to compete we've had in earlier games seemed to evaporate.  

On offense, instead of the ball moving, it devolved into late shot clock, low percentage efforts.  My unofficial count was 10 of those in the second half.   Of our 31 or so second half possessions:  23 points on (7-26 FG),   3Pt FG (4-17) combined with 8 turnovers.

Not a winning recipe.

I'm sure the coaches would say that with our lack of depth, the margin for error in every game is very small.  Particularly, at Guard where we have only two with neither of them playing their natural positions.  It's evident and easier to coach against us - pressure them everywhere.

They play 36+ minutes per game because they have to.  Fatigue is a factor in a very long season for first year players.  Expect more of the above.

Some impatient fans think, "well, with experienced coaches, they should be able to fix that or make adjustments."  Garbage.  Like it or not, you can't teach experience; the thing we don't have.  The biggest impact of our coaching is to accelerate the learning and development process.  Time will tell.

With eight WCC regular season games left, we need to get STRONGER.  

We need stronger game plans, stronger offense and defense, and the will to compete every game.   Get rid of the weak stuff and play with some old Bronco toughness.  



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SCU Men's Basketball - "There's No Place Like Home"

                                                                 

There's no doubt the experience gained by our young team playing on the road in hostile, loud environments, like at The Kennel and at BYU, will pay dividends in the future.  

It's one thing not to play at home, but another when you run the risk of being "homered."  Sure the arena environment, fan base, lighting, etc. is all foreign that's why winning on the road is so hard.  

The other X factor is that you just don't seem to get favorable calls on the road.  It's a conundrum?  Do teams play that differently away?  Do they guard too aggressively?  Are the officials from a different league and, therefore, unfamiliar with how that league plays?  Are Coaches just not up to speed on the rules to game plan road games?  

I can go on and on.  The answers to all the above questions is NO.  If this all sounds like a giant gripe - it is.  Not just for the Broncos, but for all teams.  I honestly don't know how Coaches handle it. 

The WOC charter simply stated:  
"The consortium is deigned to promote consistency - in training, development and evaluation - in officiating the western U.S., and provide a larger, more diverse pool of officials for assignment."

Nice statement, but difficult to implement.  Just read the rules text re: players "cylinder space" and you'll see all the attempts at consistency lead to inconsistency because officials are human and each interprets action on the court differently.  I'm not blaming the officials (well, I guess indirectly I am) but they have an impossible job.

For example, this season to date on the road, our opponents have attempted 64 more free throws than us.  That's nearly a full game point total.  In Provo, BYU made more free throws (24) than we attempted!  If the proverbial "make up calls" exist, then maybe we have 64 coming our way in the remaining six road games.  Doubt it.

Whether it is the Wizard of Westwood or the "Wizard of Oz" it's true, there's no place like home.  We have six games left at Leavey:  Gonzaga, LMU, Portland, St. Mary's, Pacific, and USF.  At 2-2 thus far, going 6-6 in last 12, given our short roster, would be a good finish going into the WCC tourney.  IMHO, it's going to take a road upset or two to get there.  

Tomorrow at St. Mary's is a tough test.  They shoot it among the best in the WCC and don't turn it over.  They have experience and match up well with us.  It can be done, but it will take one of our best road performances a-la Washington State.  

No doubt we've seen real improvement.  It's time to keep it going.  

We can help.  If there's really "no place like home," let's do OUR best to make opponents feel "homered" when they come to Leavey.  We need to get our 64 back by letting the Coaches and players know we've got their backs!


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