I guess it's human nature to try to predict the unpredictable.
It's easy to look at the top 15 NCAA programs and know they'll be around for the NCAA tourney. In the WCC, it's pretty much a no-brainer to pick the Zags first - again...
For the rest of the teams, picking the WCC season final standings might be fun, but it's foolish.
Let me just say, no matter what, I'd rather have any ranking than being just "rank".
SCU preseason rankings: ninth in the WCC and overall R.P.I. is, gulp, 233. If you're Alabama A&M with a dead last R.P.I. of 353 you're "rank."
R.P.I. - the rating percentage index, is touted as being a quantifiable method of selecting NCAA Division 1 league outcomes and NCAA qualifiers.
In the W.C.C., the real answer is, other than Gonzaga, "nobody knows." Looking back 16 years using R.P.I. to predict the order of WCC finishes and NCAA tourney bids, R.P.I. was a worse predictor of both of the above versus the standard preseason coaches poll done every September. That's why we have so many "surprise" teams in the WCC and NCAA tourney.
Surprises in the 2017-18 WCC were USF, San Diego, and Pacific and the Broncos in 2016-17.
For me, R.P.I. is, in reality, a Really Poor Indicator.
Not to open old wounds, but last season the Broncos had a veteran team returning and promising newcomers to add to the mix. Expectations of a 20-11 season quickly disintegrated into an 11-20 head scratcher.
This season we have the opposite. Lots of newcomers (9) and fewer returning veterans (4), only three who saw significant playing time. We do have two Grad transfers, but they are new to Coach Sendek's system. In the newcomers, we also have as a scholarship counter in D.J. Mitchell, a redshirt transfer from Wake Forest who will sit out this year and have two more years of eligibility.
Everyone's asking me, "How are the Broncos going to be this year?" The above R.P.I and coaches poll data says not great. For me, those predictions carry a big "hangover" from last season. Throw them away.
I'm going full Newton's Law: "For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction."
Last season, lots of veterans and a few newcomers, lackluster season. This season the opposite, few veterans and lots of newbies, so I'm feeling we need the "reaction" season. Put R.P.I in it's place - wrong.
Gut feel.
We'll know in the first 14 preseason games. Unfortunately, we will start the season with only ten scholarship players. Henrik Jadersten is out recovering from a foot injury. Freshman Keshawn Justice has an ankle sprain to deal with and D.J. Mitchell is a redshirt.
This year's roster has more balance. In talking to coaches and watching practice, we have more size, speed, and a competitive attitude. Scrimmages where no one wants to lose.
We have three bigs (Ndoye, Richards, Caruso) who can defend and score, a "big" upgrade. Ndoye is a grad transfer that is experienced and will bring an attitude in the paint. In freshman Zeke Richards, we finally have a center who is athletic, no lie. "E" from last season was a physical specimen, but lacked offensive instincts. If Richards develops, it will be huge for this roster. Caruso version #2, no relation to Henry from last year, is a slender 6' 9" but has a 7' 2" wingspan and might become a weak side "swatter" that we sorely need. Finally, no more need for Vrankic to pretend to be a center.
At guard/small forward we have experience and, I hate to say it, more legit shooting talent besides K.J. Taj Eaddy adds much needed speed and can slash, dish, and shoot. Freshman guard Trey Wertz off the bench will see minutes giving KJ and Taj rest. He has obvious talent, but we'll see how quickly he can adjust to the speed and size of division one. Grad Transfer Josh Martin will start and at 6' 7" can play multiple spots. When Keshawn Justice returns he'll add to the above mix.
The real "heart" of this team has to be defense. Rid ourselves of our opponents making a torrent of three pointers. Teams will feel and see stoppers in the post - fewer open freeways to layups. Initially we'll have to play smart with the short roster. We need a mindset to hold teams to < 65 ppg and < or = 45% field goal percent; the winning formula for past Bronco seasons.
In our first 14 games, seven teams have better R.P.I.'s and seven have worse. A 7-7 start would be an acceptable "reaction." Early road games vs Washington, Minnesota, and Cal are very hard W's. However, we do have nine of the first 14 at Leavey, seven that are winnable and two tough ones: Irvine and USC. Are the lucky 7's aligned?
One thing, for sure this season, is we have to show upward momentum. Like it or not, although it's Coach Sendek's third season, in reality it's the first roster that has his 10 picks. Only KJ and Hank remain from the Kerry Keating years.
Not making excuses, but as a bit of history, Gonzaga was middle of the pack for 18 years in the WCC with only one league title in 1994 under Dan Fitzgerald. With Nash under Coach Dick Davey, Santa Clara won three straight titles from 1994-96. Mark Few took over a great roster from Dan Monson in 1999 with Pro Dan Dickau and then added future Pro Ronnie Turiaf that jump-started a 19 year 1st place run.
Coach Sendek took over a roster of, well, Jared Brownridge and Freshman KJ Feagin. Good players with little help. Just sayin...
My prediction on the unpredictable pre-season is a Newtonian reaction. If it's anything other than that, we may see a "mass" exodus of loyal fans.
Also on Facebook at www.facebook.com/thebuckingbronco
SCU preseason rankings: ninth in the WCC and overall R.P.I. is, gulp, 233. If you're Alabama A&M with a dead last R.P.I. of 353 you're "rank."
R.P.I. - the rating percentage index, is touted as being a quantifiable method of selecting NCAA Division 1 league outcomes and NCAA qualifiers.
In the W.C.C., the real answer is, other than Gonzaga, "nobody knows." Looking back 16 years using R.P.I. to predict the order of WCC finishes and NCAA tourney bids, R.P.I. was a worse predictor of both of the above versus the standard preseason coaches poll done every September. That's why we have so many "surprise" teams in the WCC and NCAA tourney.
Surprises in the 2017-18 WCC were USF, San Diego, and Pacific and the Broncos in 2016-17.
For me, R.P.I. is, in reality, a Really Poor Indicator.
Not to open old wounds, but last season the Broncos had a veteran team returning and promising newcomers to add to the mix. Expectations of a 20-11 season quickly disintegrated into an 11-20 head scratcher.
This season we have the opposite. Lots of newcomers (9) and fewer returning veterans (4), only three who saw significant playing time. We do have two Grad transfers, but they are new to Coach Sendek's system. In the newcomers, we also have as a scholarship counter in D.J. Mitchell, a redshirt transfer from Wake Forest who will sit out this year and have two more years of eligibility.
Everyone's asking me, "How are the Broncos going to be this year?" The above R.P.I and coaches poll data says not great. For me, those predictions carry a big "hangover" from last season. Throw them away.
I'm going full Newton's Law: "For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction."
Last season, lots of veterans and a few newcomers, lackluster season. This season the opposite, few veterans and lots of newbies, so I'm feeling we need the "reaction" season. Put R.P.I in it's place - wrong.
Gut feel.
We'll know in the first 14 preseason games. Unfortunately, we will start the season with only ten scholarship players. Henrik Jadersten is out recovering from a foot injury. Freshman Keshawn Justice has an ankle sprain to deal with and D.J. Mitchell is a redshirt.
This year's roster has more balance. In talking to coaches and watching practice, we have more size, speed, and a competitive attitude. Scrimmages where no one wants to lose.
We have three bigs (Ndoye, Richards, Caruso) who can defend and score, a "big" upgrade. Ndoye is a grad transfer that is experienced and will bring an attitude in the paint. In freshman Zeke Richards, we finally have a center who is athletic, no lie. "E" from last season was a physical specimen, but lacked offensive instincts. If Richards develops, it will be huge for this roster. Caruso version #2, no relation to Henry from last year, is a slender 6' 9" but has a 7' 2" wingspan and might become a weak side "swatter" that we sorely need. Finally, no more need for Vrankic to pretend to be a center.
At guard/small forward we have experience and, I hate to say it, more legit shooting talent besides K.J. Taj Eaddy adds much needed speed and can slash, dish, and shoot. Freshman guard Trey Wertz off the bench will see minutes giving KJ and Taj rest. He has obvious talent, but we'll see how quickly he can adjust to the speed and size of division one. Grad Transfer Josh Martin will start and at 6' 7" can play multiple spots. When Keshawn Justice returns he'll add to the above mix.
The real "heart" of this team has to be defense. Rid ourselves of our opponents making a torrent of three pointers. Teams will feel and see stoppers in the post - fewer open freeways to layups. Initially we'll have to play smart with the short roster. We need a mindset to hold teams to < 65 ppg and < or = 45% field goal percent; the winning formula for past Bronco seasons.
In our first 14 games, seven teams have better R.P.I.'s and seven have worse. A 7-7 start would be an acceptable "reaction." Early road games vs Washington, Minnesota, and Cal are very hard W's. However, we do have nine of the first 14 at Leavey, seven that are winnable and two tough ones: Irvine and USC. Are the lucky 7's aligned?
One thing, for sure this season, is we have to show upward momentum. Like it or not, although it's Coach Sendek's third season, in reality it's the first roster that has his 10 picks. Only KJ and Hank remain from the Kerry Keating years.
Not making excuses, but as a bit of history, Gonzaga was middle of the pack for 18 years in the WCC with only one league title in 1994 under Dan Fitzgerald. With Nash under Coach Dick Davey, Santa Clara won three straight titles from 1994-96. Mark Few took over a great roster from Dan Monson in 1999 with Pro Dan Dickau and then added future Pro Ronnie Turiaf that jump-started a 19 year 1st place run.
Coach Sendek took over a roster of, well, Jared Brownridge and Freshman KJ Feagin. Good players with little help. Just sayin...
My prediction on the unpredictable pre-season is a Newtonian reaction. If it's anything other than that, we may see a "mass" exodus of loyal fans.
Also on Facebook at www.facebook.com/thebuckingbronco
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