SCU Men's Basketball - Do We have a "Shot" in the WCC?

It's hard to imagine anything colder than our shooting in Leavey over the past two games as we head to the Great Alaska Shootout. 

Tough to swallow when your opponents seemingly can't miss and we just can't get anything to fall at home.  Makes you feel like Joey Chestnut after a hot dog eating contest when Cal Poly made 8-16 three pointers; five of them with under five seconds on the shot clock.  Gag me...

Meanwhile, we've been missing more layups than the Leavey halftime kids.  

Not counting LaVerne, a non D1 stat stuffer, the shooting lines read like a weather "cold snap."  FG% 45-117 or 31%.  3Pt FG% 11-33 or 33%.  FT% 21-36 or 68%.  

So, what are we "learning" from this unexpected shooting climate change?  I bet the coaches are focused only on the things they can control.  Teaching details on creating the best shot preparation, setting and using picks better, and keeping the ball moving.

I say let's go full Morpheus from The Matrix. "Free your mind" and just let it go.  Relax.  Draino.  The guys want to win so badly that maybe they're trying to do too much - forcing the action and trying to make it happen vs. let it happen. 

So, I think it's perfect they are going to a colder temperature in Alaska to warm up.  I know for sure they will shoot a higher percentage than the 15 degree temperature.

The opener Wednesday against Idaho will be a tough test.  The Vandals return their top seven scorers and are the consensus pick to win the Big Sky Conference.   If we play CSU Bakersfield, it's winnable as they rebuild from back to back NCAA and NIT appearances.   Alaska Anchorage should be in the win column, a D2 opponent, albeit on the road.

The bigger question is do we have the "shots" to take a shot at the upper tier in the WCC?   I'm still down for a run at third with one signature upset.  Acceptable.  It's going to take some "reversion to the mean" to get it done.  Huh?  Reversion to the what?

It's how you pick the value in something, mostly used in picking stocks.  If you find a stock that is priced 15% under it's intrinsic mean value, at some point it will return/revert to that value and in this case rise 15%.  Let's try it on MBB.

  

More fuzzy math.  

If our shooting percentages revert to their intrinsic mean, both the 2pt FG and 3pt FG will rise 15%.  That gets us to (25) FG's and (7) 3pt FG per game + our 9 free throws = 80 points per game.  I like our chances in the WCC with our defense holding opponents under 80 points.  We most likely won't out shoot most WCC teams, so our "D" will have to generate more possessions to get us to 80.  

There you go.  Rip it to shreds.  I'm sticking to it!

That's the way we'll have a "shot" in the WCC.  

For now, we'll have to get colder in Alaska to warm up our shooting before league.  They call it the "Great Alaska Shootout" so hopefully we'll have a shot to win it!!

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