SCU MBB vs Gonzaga - "4" of a Kind is Tough to Beat

The Vegas odds of beating 4 of a kind in a five card poker hand are astronomical.*   That's the "hand" the Broncos face tonight against the Zags.  Only two things top 4 of a kind; a straight flush or royal flush.

For the "straight flush" to get it done, the Broncos will need not only our #1, 2 and 3 positions to go off, but get a huge "draw" from the 4 and 5 positions to stop the pounding in the middle from the Zags.

The Zags have a two-way "4" of a kind.

Their first "4" of a kind?  Their 4 bigs.  In our previous two meetings, they are 34-53 (64%) from kick in range and hold a 9 point free throw advantage vs ours.  

Their second "4" of a kind, their 4 guards.  They shoot it at 45% and can defend, drive, dish, or finish.  

It's a stacked deck.....I guess that's why they're ranked #4 in the nation.  

More 4's...

We are the WCC #4 seed, playing a nationally ranked #4.  I just wish the game was at 4:00 - cosmic karma!!!

Even though the odds are long, it CAN be done.  Gonzaga just lost to BYU in the Kennel.  In the last two minutes of that game, the "dogs" played with their tails between their legs:  soft.  

We beat BYU and they know it.  Mark Few may believe the burden of the NCAA  #1 ranking may have made them "roll over" against BYU. 

It does cast some doubt in their minds.  Our win against BYU was no bluff; it was solid.  We will need all of that tonight.

I hope it's like the 2015 World Series of Poker; where an unknown high school football coach, Jeff Tomlinson, took down the best poker pros in the world.  Down 3:1 in total chip count in the finals, he turned the game upside down to win; not bluffing once.  He just played his hands.  

The Zags biggest fear is "which" SCU team will they play.  If we play like the team that rolled Pepperdine and BYU shooting lights out, our odds drastically improve.  IF, we can get them to the last two minutes with us tied or slightly ahead, we might see them "whimper" from being challenged.  

That could put us in the position for a Jared "Royal Flush" finishing shot as he's proven he can do...

Game on.   Our Deal...

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* Odds of beating 4 of a kind in 5 card poker: 1 in 72,193 with a Straight Flush or 1 in 649,740 with a Royal Flush.