SCU Men's Basketball - Winning Numbers

Everybody likes winning numbers; whether it's a Power Ball Lotto, raffle, super bowl pool or SCU Men's Basketball.  

Stat rats analyze every nuance of game numbers to predict wins or losses.  There's SO much data out there that gets massaged to evaluate, rank and, in the end, select at-large teams to the NCAA tournament.  

IMHO, most of "statisphere" predictions are not only wrong, but irrelevant.  

Just ask St. Mary's with their NCAA snub last year.  The data (a convoluted strength of schedule formula) said "maybe."  Their win percentage was booyah.  In the end, it was the 'humans" that didn't like the WCC - in some national circles labeled the "Weak Coast Conference."  

"Blue" nearly always gets the NCAA nod.  Think, Duke, Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky and UCLA.  The Gaels wear some blue, but aren't in the "blue blood" lineage.  

Or, fathom this year's WCC upsets when the "stats" would predict a convincing win that became losses.  BYU losing to us, San Diego, and Pepperdine after blowout home wins.

There's so much focus on stats and number of wins that we overlook the human element in deciding games on the floor.  More specifically, the situational standard deviation of athletic performance.  

All of us have lamented, "how can we play so poorly one night and like basketball savants the next?" Imagine Pepperdine last Thursday night coming into Leavey, brimming with confidence after beating BYU and having more players healthy.  They were swept away by a tsunami of 22 three pointers and a 75% first half shooting percentage!  Try to find that on a stat sheet for SCU who ranks 7th in shooting in the WCC.  

For SCU Men's Basketball, you don't need IBM's "Watson" to figure it out.  Just think C + T + D = W's.

That's a winning formula for the top teams in the NCAA and the WCC.  

OK quants, have a field day with this one.

Consistency + Talent + Depth = Wins

Consistency:  they shoot, defend, at a high level most every night.

Talent:  they get players who can perform to the formula.

Depth:  they go 8 - 9 deep, sharing minutes without a huge drop off.

All of the above, with a small standard deviation game to game.

The Zags and St. Mary's have it.  

Compare the Zags vs SCU using the formula?  

The Zags shoot it at +10%, have a roster of four potential pros, go nine deep vs six and with a -10 minutes/player average.  That's not a gap, it's a chasm.  Imagine Jared's play with an extra 103 minutes of rest!

  

This is what top level, per game, winning numbers look like:

Gonzaga

FG 52%, 3PFG 38%, Off. PPP* 1.12, Poss/Game 73

St. Mary's

FG 49%, 3PFG 39%, Off. PPP* 1.12, Poss/Game 62

SCU

FG 42%, 3PFG 36%, Off. PPP* 1.0, Poss/Game 66

If we shot the same field goal percentage as the Zags, that's 130 MORE shots we would have made.  BIG.

Our C + T + D has yielded 15 wins so far.  Not being negative here, but this is not Coach Sendek's and his staff's team.  It is the same roster as last season; hampered by season long key injuries.  The major C for us this season is not the consistency C; it's Coaching.

The "learning" that we've heard so much about is happening.  The strides are visible.  One piece of evidence: Emmanuel or "E." Always athletic, now he is becoming a basketball player.  

The other C  - Consistency - has been illusive.  The highs have produced two signature wins and the lows a few head-scratching losses.  Our range differential in "off" night shooting percentages to "on" nights needs to be less than 8; not 15%.  

Learning is contagious.  As the players are learning skills to be more consistent, we as season ticket holders and fans are learning that the resuscitation of our MBB program is real and has begun. This coaching staff has a history of producing winning numbers and is moving the needle up.

Chapter one is nearly complete and the story is developing.  Our odds of hitting the winning numbers to become contenders is improving.  Now, in the stands, heads are up.  There is more chatter, banter, and even a little more Cheering vs Complaining.  

And that's a C that's been missing from the formula for a very long time!

* Off PPP = Offensive points per possession.  

* Poss/Game = Number of possessions per game 

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