SCU Men's Basketball - Winning Numbers

Everybody likes winning numbers; whether it's a Power Ball Lotto, raffle, super bowl pool or SCU Men's Basketball.  

Stat rats analyze every nuance of game numbers to predict wins or losses.  There's SO much data out there that gets massaged to evaluate, rank and, in the end, select at-large teams to the NCAA tournament.  

IMHO, most of "statisphere" predictions are not only wrong, but irrelevant.  

Just ask St. Mary's with their NCAA snub last year.  The data (a convoluted strength of schedule formula) said "maybe."  Their win percentage was booyah.  In the end, it was the 'humans" that didn't like the WCC - in some national circles labeled the "Weak Coast Conference."  

"Blue" nearly always gets the NCAA nod.  Think, Duke, Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky and UCLA.  The Gaels wear some blue, but aren't in the "blue blood" lineage.  

Or, fathom this year's WCC upsets when the "stats" would predict a convincing win that became losses.  BYU losing to us, San Diego, and Pepperdine after blowout home wins.

There's so much focus on stats and number of wins that we overlook the human element in deciding games on the floor.  More specifically, the situational standard deviation of athletic performance.  

All of us have lamented, "how can we play so poorly one night and like basketball savants the next?" Imagine Pepperdine last Thursday night coming into Leavey, brimming with confidence after beating BYU and having more players healthy.  They were swept away by a tsunami of 22 three pointers and a 75% first half shooting percentage!  Try to find that on a stat sheet for SCU who ranks 7th in shooting in the WCC.  

For SCU Men's Basketball, you don't need IBM's "Watson" to figure it out.  Just think C + T + D = W's.

That's a winning formula for the top teams in the NCAA and the WCC.  

OK quants, have a field day with this one.

Consistency + Talent + Depth = Wins

Consistency:  they shoot, defend, at a high level most every night.

Talent:  they get players who can perform to the formula.

Depth:  they go 8 - 9 deep, sharing minutes without a huge drop off.

All of the above, with a small standard deviation game to game.

The Zags and St. Mary's have it.  

Compare the Zags vs SCU using the formula?  

The Zags shoot it at +10%, have a roster of four potential pros, go nine deep vs six and with a -10 minutes/player average.  That's not a gap, it's a chasm.  Imagine Jared's play with an extra 103 minutes of rest!

  

This is what top level, per game, winning numbers look like:

Gonzaga

FG 52%, 3PFG 38%, Off. PPP* 1.12, Poss/Game 73

St. Mary's

FG 49%, 3PFG 39%, Off. PPP* 1.12, Poss/Game 62

SCU

FG 42%, 3PFG 36%, Off. PPP* 1.0, Poss/Game 66

If we shot the same field goal percentage as the Zags, that's 130 MORE shots we would have made.  BIG.

Our C + T + D has yielded 15 wins so far.  Not being negative here, but this is not Coach Sendek's and his staff's team.  It is the same roster as last season; hampered by season long key injuries.  The major C for us this season is not the consistency C; it's Coaching.

The "learning" that we've heard so much about is happening.  The strides are visible.  One piece of evidence: Emmanuel or "E." Always athletic, now he is becoming a basketball player.  

The other C  - Consistency - has been illusive.  The highs have produced two signature wins and the lows a few head-scratching losses.  Our range differential in "off" night shooting percentages to "on" nights needs to be less than 8; not 15%.  

Learning is contagious.  As the players are learning skills to be more consistent, we as season ticket holders and fans are learning that the resuscitation of our MBB program is real and has begun. This coaching staff has a history of producing winning numbers and is moving the needle up.

Chapter one is nearly complete and the story is developing.  Our odds of hitting the winning numbers to become contenders is improving.  Now, in the stands, heads are up.  There is more chatter, banter, and even a little more Cheering vs Complaining.  

And that's a C that's been missing from the formula for a very long time!

* Off PPP = Offensive points per possession.  

* Poss/Game = Number of possessions per game 

Compare

SCU Men's Basketball - Our "March Madness" is in February!

MBB plans to go national won't include a trip to the NCAA tournament in 2017.  

With eight games remaining in the WCC, we have to view those games as our March Madness in February. What?

The next eight determine not only our season record, but the seeding of the only March tournament we'll play in - the WCC Championship.  

Fourth place in the WCC is our chance to make a statement that we're rising AND get a seeding in the tourney where we can cause trouble.  Fifth isn't a deal breaker, but fourth is a sweet spot.

It's going to take a 5-3 finish to get that done.  USF and USD are right behind us in the standings at 5-5 and 4-6 records.

Here's the SCU schedule if you want to see the last eight.

SCU MBB Schedule

A 5-3 run in our 2017 February March Madness would give us potentially two shots at #1 Gonzaga.  This Saturday, at the Kennel and in the semifinals of the WCC tourney where the #4 seed is bracketed to play the #1 seed; most likely Gonzaga.  We'd have to beat either USF or USD to get that shot.

February March Madness!

The 5-3 finish would put us 17-14 for the season; remarkable considering our key player injuries.  We've played 75% of our games thus far without one of the starters!  A solid start for our new coaching staff after only 2 winning seasons in the prior nine years.  The coup de grace would be for Jared and Nate to take down the #1 Zags as their senior parting gift!

The Zags have two tough tests left.  BYU in Provo and St. Mary's in Moraga.

  

BYU may have the tougher track; playing Gonzaga twice, a roadie at USF, and the Gaels in Provo.

St. Mary's has the easier path except for a "prove it" contest with BYU in Provo.  I say prove it because if they lose to Gonzaga in the WCC tourney, they may be in the same spot as last year - bubble team.

Most all of us would agree, "there's no place like home."  Let's be honest, our 2-2 recent homestand looked like an 0-fer until Jared sent LMU packing and our swarming team "D" forced BYU into a loss that ended their NCAA at-large hopes.  

Only three of our last eight are at home.  6-2 is doable, but not probable, given 5 roadies.

So, we need to bring some March Madness into February!  Our time to make some noise.  Our "bracket" starts now.  A big move up in the WCC, in the media, and opening the eyes of better recruits.

If we "March" into February, it will send a message to all Broncos that the momentum for a stampede ahead is real - not just more marketing hype.

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