Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Spontaneous Implosion

 

                                                                                                                                   

The Broncos dispatched UC Riverside in the first round of the NIT last Tuesday evening with an offensive explosion that led to a 39 point blowout.  We entered the second round matchup with a strong momentum to face University of Alabama Birmingham (UAB).  

We used that momentum to a forge a 7 point lead at half that extended immediately to a 17 point lead with 16 minutes remaining.  UAB looked defeated, discouraged, and disinterested as they left the floor for a timeout.  Maybe their coach treated this timeout the same as a "timeout" for a terrible two year old because what happened next was unfathomable.  One Minute and 30 seconds later our lead was down to 7.  UAB was injected with life and renewed energy; which they used to punish us the rest of the way for an 88-84 stunning win.  

After our offensive explosion Tuesday, this was an offensive implosion that was possibly our most "offensive" and embarrassing loss.  You have to admire the three adjustments the UAB coaches made to exploit their matchup advantages, and, to be polite, we just couldn't or didn't know how to stop it.  Whatever energy we had in half one was sucked it out of us in  half two in suffocating fashion.  Fans and students wonder how a team that's played nearly 70 games together looked like deer in headlights and seemed not to know what to do to stay in this game.  In the words of season ticket holders, fans, and alums,  "We've seen this movie too many times before."  A bitter end to a really good 20-13 season that held so much promise; yet slipped away. 

Wins over St. Louis (120), TCU (71), McNeese(59), Bradley(87), Oregon State (94), USF(65), and Gonzaga(9) and two point losses to Stanford (78), Arizona State (66) and a one point loss to USF were fruits of a strong schedule designed for NCAA invites.   

Statistically, there was overall improvement from the 2023-2024 season on offense in FG%, 3 Pt FG% , and FT%.  However, we ranked last in the WCC in FT%   Rebounding was on par and turnovers, our perennial nemesis, showed slight improvement.  We saw noticeable improvements from Christoph Tilly, Cam Tongue, Tyeree Bryan, Brenton Knapper, and flashes of great play from JC transfer Elijah Mahi.  Johnny O'Neil led the team in rebounds and blocks for the second straight season.  Adama Bal led the team in scoring although he and O'Neil saw a drop in scoring averages year to year.

At key times, our defense was both great and subpar.  We ranked 107 in effective field goal percentage and 189 and 207 in two point and three point percent defense.  These last two stats measure how good your defense is at preventing opponents from making two and three point shots.  By comparison, St. Mary's was ranked 8th and 9th in these categories.  

The hardest thing for loyal fans to understand is the big disparity throughout the year and even mid game in both offense and defense.  The UAB game was a prime example of a number of these efforts where we lost good leads down the stretch.  Defense win games and for the Broncos much needed when their offense struggled.  

Our game plan is to shoot threes early and often with the theory being making threes opens up the paint for easier two point shots or layups.  In league, we shot 525 threes, making 210 for 40%.  The number of attempted threes was well over 100 more than any of the other WCC teams except USF.  Our overall FG% was 47%, which is good, however, we were not successful enough finishing in the paint to get free throws.  We ranked 314 out of 364 teams in getting to the free throw line.  Those are 70% + shots and valuable when the threes aren't falling.  

If nine years ago Bronco fans were told we would experience eight winning seasons and five of those were 20 win seasons under Coach Sendek, most all of us would have said "go for it!"   But along with winning comes increasing expectations, particularly with the substantial additional investments made in MBB.  Three NIT appearances are better, but we remain in third or fourth in the WCC and no NCAA invites. 

The parallels to Coach Sendek's prior stints at NC State, ASU and SCU are similar and striking.  Five 20 win seasons at each stop, 10-14 losses, no conference titles and the last NCAA invite was 12 years ago at ASU.  It's a fantastic amount of winning, but as with the prior stops the expectations were higher.  Bronco season ticket holders and fans have had higher expectations beginning at least with the Jalen Williams roster.  Our wait for an NCAA invite is now 30 years.  IMHO, too long.

I started with spontaneous and I'll end with it.  How about some spontaneous communication?  As season ticket holders, fans, alums, students, and parents we know more money will be asked to fund the next pay to play NCAA era.  We just want to know what we are "shooting" at with MBB and when and how it will be measured?  We know with Women's Soccer.  Why not MBB?  

It takes strong leadership at the top to commit to the resources, changes, and improvement needed to make NCAA tournaments.  Bronco season ticket holders and fans stand ready to take the next step.  We just need to know what that is.

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Spontaneous Combustion

 

                                                                                                                                 

It's been 41 years since the Broncos have won an NIT game and the victory last Tuesday night wasn't just a victory, but an offensive explosion resulting in a 101-62 rout.  Bronco fans, season ticket holders, alums, and students witnessed what I'll call spontaneous combustion.  The offensive fire spread to the whole roster ending in a last second, turnaround, deep right corner three by Malachi Douyen to end the game and fireworks. 

With starter Adama Bal out for the game, our team romped with stellar contributions from Tyeree Bryan, Johnny O'Neil, Christoph Tilly, Carlos Stewart, and Elijah Mahi; taking the place of Bal in the lineup.  Cam Tongue and Jake Ensminger did yeoman's work and damage off the bench.  Mahi, the JC transfer, brought a different and effective toolset to this game and this season.  He can score from anywhere at a high percentage, dished out 5 assists, and grabbed 4 rebounds.  Most effective and needed is/was his ability to penetrate into the paint and make tough shots or great passes resulting in easy baskets.   He doesn't just settle for threes when he has a matchup, he can exploit.  

What a night!  It was the third time this season that we responded with a strong win after embarrassing losses; like the most recent one to Pepperdine in the WCC tourney.  With this win, we set the all time record in the WCC for three point shots made in a season.  While making 363 three point shots on 948 attempts (38%) is impressive, but it's also a big part of the conundrum of this season.  

This is arguably our most talented and deep roster in Coach Sendek's tenure.  A team that torches Gonzaga in Spokane and then flames out against LMU and Pepperdine along the way to four Quad three losses, which are death knells to NCAA invites.  Coulda, woulda, shoulda... Begs the unanswerable question - Why?

There is no shortage of opinions from all factions of Bronco basketball.  Coaches may say "it's basketball."  All teams have off nights even against lesser opponents.  Our offensive strategy is to play up tempo and use the three point shot to score early and to open up the paint for easier two point shots.  

Sounds reasonable, but if three point shots aren't falling, we have trouble finishing shots in the paint or getting contact for free throws.  We are # 310 out of 364 teams in free throw rate or how often we get to the line.  The biggest chatter is the effective use of our possessions.  We seem to be unable to get our best players the ball in their best spots to score often enough.  We'll end up late in the clock with one of our bigs shooting a low percentage three from deep or a tough one on one isolation play.  When we move the ball, and have the right guys taking the right shots like the Riverside game, we can be formidable.  On the flip side, when we don't move the ball and are missing our open looks, we have trouble making adjustments to find better scoring opportunities.  

Tonight is another great opportunity for this staff and roster to show we're on the rise against a solid UAB team.  They are long and strong.  Hopefully our defense will start early with stops to light the kindling for another night of more spontaneous combustion.  That's a bonfire we'd love to see!!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - In the Middle of an Egg Shortage - The Broncos Laid a Big One

 

                                                                                                                                     

After a blowout win on the road at Pacific to end WCC play, the Broncos were in great form heading into the WCC tournament.  As the fourth seed, it appeared we would face Oregon State for the right to have a revenge game versus St. Mary's in the semifinal.  

When Pepperdine, the 9th seed upset Oregon State, the path to the semifinal game seemed much easier for our highly touted and talented roster.  We had cruised to victory in our league game against Pepperdine at Leavey leading by 12-15 most of the game.  In that meeting, we played a solid game with contributions from all our players; handing out 22 assists and only 10 turnovers.  Our defense was good, not great, but got the job done.  Bronco fans were excited at this fortuitous break and were expecting our momentum to continue and move onto the semis.  

Then, we flew the coop and laid an egg.  To say the humiliating loss was hard to understand is an understatement.  Pepperdine was playing their third day in a row, had won just 4 WCC games in league and was 11-20 on the season entering the tournament.   Not a great resume.   We had a week of preparation; which apparently didn't help.   

For those who were in Las Vegas and maybe to those watching on TV, we played as a team for 9 minutes in the beginning of the first half and 9 minutes to begin the second half.  Pepperdine owned the rest.  At the outset, we were having trouble moving the ball and defending, but we made tough contested threes to forge a 12 point lead,

Same scenario in half two.  We were ahead by seven early and then fell behind seven with five minutes left and could not finish.  We had no answers for Pepperdine guard Moe Odum.  His 13 assists and 19 points sent us packing.  Pepperdine missed shots early, but made them late when needed.  We made shots early, but missed them late.  Our second half 12-33 shooting including 4-14 from three sealed our fate.  Three of our mainstay scorers were 25% from the 3 point line.  Our attempts to drive and score in the paint fell short missing 4 layups in the last five minutes.  Pepperdine just seemed to want it more.  

These lapses and losses are a big factor in not earning NCAA invites.  We seem to go off the rails 4-6 games a season.  Under Coach Sendek and his staff we are winning a lot more, but along the way we struggle to win big games at key points in our season.  I'm pretty sure it's the 4th time we've been ousted by Pepperdine in the WCC tournament in the past nine years.  

We have won only 17% of our games versus St. Mary's and Gonzaga and less than half against USF in the past 9 seasons.  I'm sure the coaches pine for more NIL, Analytics, etc. needed to bring in higher level athletes, but I doubt USF and St. Mary's are flush with NIL nor do they have the facilities we offer, but they seem to be finding talent and outperforming us.

Some analytics sites rank roster performances in terms of whether they are performing above or below their talent level.  These analytics are calculated using every possession of every game for every player.  Two of the outliers this season in the WCC who are judged to be underperforming are Santa Clara and Gonzaga.  Obviously, an off year for the Zags, but they still won the WCC tourney and are going to the big dance.  This stat is no surprise to season ticket holders, fans, and alums.  It also affects student turnout when students show up and witness the St. Mary's meltdown at Leavey in the second half.  

There's no doubt that Santa Clara has been Coach Sendek's most difficult assignment by far. At North Carolina State and Arizona State there was a culture of winning.  Those teams finished third and fourth in league or lower a number of times over 9 and 10 seasons.  Their conferences were strong enough to earn NCAA berths when fourth and NIT bids when finishing sixth and eighth several times.  Not the WCC.  This pattern is eerily similar so far at Santa Clara.  We've finished third twice earning two NIT bids, but no NCAA invites.  We are likely to get our 3rd NIT invite this season due to playing our strongest schedule to date.  In our NIT invites, we have not won either of our first round games.  

I can say the horses in the Corral, season ticket holders, alums, and fans are loyal, but more impatient than ever.  I'm sure the coaches are as well.  They want the same higher level performance as well all do.  The SCU administration recognizes the positive value of NCAA tournament exposure for the University.  This was re-iterated when our new A.D. Heather Owen, attended the pre-game Bronco Bistro at our last home game and confirmed the goal for Men's Basketball is making NCAA tournaments.  

BTW, it's the similar Goal stated in the SCU 2020 strategic planning that started meeting in 2016, stating one of the key goals was "excellence in intercollegiate athletics".  We have excellence in Women's Soccer with two national championships, but we're not there (NCAA's) in Men's Basketball nine years into the plan and 30 years since the last NCAA.  

We're pretty sure we will all be asked for more money to fund this goal, given the pay for play reality in athletics and Men's Basketball.  It'd be nice to know where we are in the shot clock on these expectations and accountability for the results towards this worthy goal.

Hopefully, we'll start now if we get an NIT invite and instead of laying an egg - lay it on our NIT opponents and go deeper than the first round.  That would be worth "clucking" about!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - We Need A Van Halen Moment in The WCC Tourney

 

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                    

Before reading, clink the link below and the music should start in another window.  Then return to this window to read the story.  The lyrics start at 1 minute in the video.

Right Now

The Broncos finished the regular season with a 20-11 record, a 53 NET ranking and their fifth 20 win season in the past six years.  There were six signature wins versus teams ranked near or under the top 70 capped by a road win at Gonzaga.  All in all, an impressive year.  The strong schedule and all key players returning set the stage for an NCAA tournament run; yet it's no secret that we suffered five losses when we held and lost leads late in the second half that derailed our chances.  As a result, the WCC tournament is what's left to meet the season goal of making the NCAA tourney after a 29 year drought.   

The only path is to win the tournament and that's why I'm saying we need to channel Van Halen and do it "Right Now - Catch that magic moment."   

It could happen, but it will take something different than just shooting threes to get it done.  We have a lot of fire power, but sometimes lack the discipline, decision making, and competitive "fire" that it takes to beat opponents like St. Mary's and the Zags; who won't beat themselves.  They use and exploit matchups and have first team all conference playmaking guards who get the ball to their teammates in places where they can optimize their advantages.  That's why they win close games.   

There were six guards selected to the WCC all conference first team.  The Zags had two, SMC's Marciulionus was named player of the year for the second year in a row and USF added their two starting guards.   Adama Bal was SCU's lone first team member while Christoph Tilly and Carlos Stewart were named to the second team.  

There's a theme here.  The top 3 WCC teams all have two playmaking guards that run the offense with a pass first mentality, but they can also score when needed.  It's a combination that doesn't seem to be part of our recruiting or perhaps coaching philosophy.  

Our coaches love the players to push the tempo and shoot early clock threes in transition.  Too often when threes aren't falling, we also fall because we don't seem to go to our other strengths.  We  don't seem to be able to regroup; much like what happened to us during the second half huge run by St. Mary's.  We love Tilly and Cam in the post, but not so much for top of key threes too early in the clock.  Our bigs score it at a 59% clip in the paint, but 26% from three on about 140 attempts.  This takes the ball out the hands of our best three point shooters who are shooting threes at 43%.  More touches down low in the paint would be nice to see as well.  We can expect a press as it has been effective in slowing our transition to offense.  Hopefully, we won't devolve into the one on one dribbling into traffic we've seen when our offense stalls.   Suffice it to say, when the ball moves and we get the ball to our shooters in their spots, we are a tough out.  Exactly what we need this week.

Add a little of our recent defense and rebounding and we can make a go of it.  

The game this coming Sunday against Oregon State will be a tough tournament opener and the season tiebreaker between us.   They are better than their record and also beat Gonzaga this season.  They are a big team and have depth they use to attack the rim, an area where we have limited defensive depth.  Parsa, Rataj, and Kingz are a hand full and were tough for our defense to stop.   

In our overtime win, we had a four point lead with 3:48 left.   We did not score again in regulation and had six chances to pull away, but missed free throws, a 3pt miss and 3 missed layup attempts sent the game into overtime.  We had the ball with 30 seconds left in regulation, but couldn't get a shot off.   We'll need to rebound and make them take tough shots.  It's a game we should win, but our first round efforts in the WCC Tourney have been inconsistent.  

Beating Oregon State gives us another shot at St. Mary's in the Semifinals.  It's a great opportunity to play them vs Gonzaga, the 7th best offense in the nation.   We'll see if we can breakthrough and prove we can win big games.

So, we'll hope for a Van Halen run to the finals!

A Few Lyrics:

Don't want to wait 'til tomorrow
Why put it off another day?
Right now....
It's what's happening
Right here and now....

Tell me, what are you waiting for?  Turn this thing around...
 Catch that magic moment, do it:
 Right here and now!"
 It means everything....

                                                                                                                             

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Fever Pitch

 

                                                                                                                                      

So far in February, the Broncos are on a "heater" with a 5-1 record and four of those games were absolute blowouts.  While the fever from the flu virus has been going through our and other WCC teams, the Broncos three point shooting has been sizzling at 47%.   

In conference play, seven Broncos are shooting above 35% and four of those are above 40% with Brenton Knapper (54%) and Johnny O'Neill (47%) leading the way.  If you subtract out our bigs three point attempts that are not late in the clock, we are at 50%.  Carlos Stewart and Tyeree Bryan kept us in games with their three point shooting until Johnny O'Neill got into his rhythm and has been a huge catalyst in the latest run. 

The turnaround, run, or whatever you want to call it, is not only remarkable, but stunning considering the equally stunning lapses where we lost important games shooting threes at around 20% with a season low at LMU of 15%.  Therein lies our strength and our Achilles Heel in that we seem either unable or reluctant to stop shooting early clock threes when we are ice cold.  That strategy may be the difference between an NCAA at-large bid versus an NIT selection.  

To fans and season ticket holders, the biggest change in our success has been the ball movement on offense and some much better defense; yes I said defense.  Belief and team effort.  During the 7-3 streak since Gonzaga, on offense our assists to turnover ratio is at a season high per game while our three point shooting defense is now second in the WCC.  We are also first in defensive rebounding.  Less hero ball and more team ball; not only finding open shooters, but actually our better three point shooters who are moving to their spots and getting great looks.  Better.  

This final week of the season determines the WCC tournament seedings.  We will most likely be a third or fourth seed.  If we beat Gonzaga again and USF and Oregon falter, we could move higher.  USF plays at Oregon State and then at home versus Gonzaga.  Oregon State hosts USF and then play St. Mary's in Moraga.  Anything can happen.

For the Broncos, we need to continue the winning ways of moving the ball, taking good shots, and making the needed adjustments.  We have an opportunity to win 20 games for a fifth season and more importantly prove the early season promise of this roster by making some noise this week and in the WCC Tournament!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Gael Dominance

                                                                                                                                          

Wednesday night's beatdown by St. Mary's at Leavey continued their dominant streak against the Broncos; making it seven straight wins.   We are now 3-18 during Coach Sendek's tenure.   I hate to say it, but the Gaels by their standards, did not play well.  They were well below conference game averages in shooting, overall rebounding, and had 12 turnovers which was 4 more than usual.  We have to give the Broncos' credit for their effort in the first half to trail only by two.  

The second half was a "clinic" put on by Randy Bennett and his team making adjustments that resulted in a 26-0 Gael run that painfully lasted 10 minutes; pushing their lead to 52-26.  In the words of  Bronco fans, it wasn't just dominant, but humiliating.  While it's only one game, it's also a stark reminder of this team and a program, that while seemingly on the rise, wins few big games.  Sure, the wins against Washington State and, then, Gonzaga in Spokane were awesome, yet any momentum was wasted by two successive losses that meant more to our season.

Head scratching and swear words aside, how did this happen?  Here are some observations from the Bronco "chairback" season ticket holders and other fans.  

Our stated game plan was to "shrink the floor" on defense and prevent them from pounding it to the rim.  Limit their offensive rebounds as they are ranked in the top 5.  Force their shots to outside the paint and contest these aggressively.  On offense, the Broncos wanted to create openings into the middle from ball movement around the perimeter, then drive and dish for a three or good two pointer.  Or post Christoph Tilly and Cam Tongue low to get Saxon in foul trouble since he is a centerpiece to their offense. 

Game Plan Result:  The Gaels pounded it inside all game.  They drove the middle and got 17 offensive rebounds resulting in half of their points coming in the paint.  They also shot 47% from three in the second half.  Our defense mostly goes behind screens or switches top of the key, leaving their point guard Marciulionis to be defended by a big.  This creates the matchups that Randy Bennett exploits with impunity.  Marciulionis, the reigning WCC player of the year, controls the flow, but every Gael player runs their offense with a purpose each possession.  They are coached to know the matchups that are to their advantage.

They used these matchups to shut us down on offense.  Their perimeter defense in the second half was a brick wall we could not find a way to penetrate.  Time outs and adjustments by us didn't succeed.  They got through our screens or had another player step in our path.  If we got into the middle they swarmed and used active hands to knock the ball away and stop us from scoring.  Christoph Tilly made a run late in the first half but we were unable to replicate this in half two.  We were not patient and appeared befuddled as to what to do.  Difficult to watch.  

Bottom line, St. Mary's have the players in a system where they are able to impose their will on opponents.  At times, they run a "surgical" offense and defense and it is why they are 9-0 in the WCC.  I know there are many Broncos who continually say we have more talent than SMC.  However, a 3-18 record against them is proof we do not get the most out of our talent.  

It's not just against SMC.  We've all witnessed the wild swings in consistency from this team that continues to haunt us this season.  Every team experiences this, yet we seem more prone than our WCC competition for these lapses.  

Tomorrow against Pacific we get another chance to reset.  The chance to achieve the fourth seed in the WCC tournament is still in the mix.  With eight games left it will take a 6-2 finish to contend for the fourth seed.  One of the best things about this team is they forget about what's behind them and focus on what's ahead.  We'll need this selective amnesia big time over the next eight games!

As usual, comments welcome!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Lost and Found

 

                                                                                                                                 

There's one month left in our season, which can only be described as perhaps the most unexpected in the nine year tenure of Coach Sendek and his staff.  Unexpected in that we started the year with our most experienced roster in many years with the hype and hope of finally earning an NCAA invite only to open with a 3-5 record.  For a team with over 30 games playing together in the same offensive and defensive system, these veteran players seem lost at key moments and unable to finish games they expected to win. 

Then, suddenly after the Washington tough loss on November 29th, things have been more like what this team is capable of and what fans expected them to do.  Wins over Bradley, Oregon State, Washington State, USF, and Gonzaga, at the Kennel, proved the talent in this roster.  This latest 11-3 run has also produced a 6-3 conference record putting us in position to grab the number 3, 4 or 5 seed in the WCC tournament.  More than the record, our team KNOWS if they play the right way, they can beat any of the WCC top level teams on any court.  

The key to the above is to avoid any more losses to the lower WCC teams. The good news is the remaining schedule actually favors the Broncos as we have already played most all the top five.  For example, St. Mary's is 8-0 in the WCC, but has eight games left against the top teams, including two versus the Zags as well as two against SCU.  We have only four remaining against the top teams.

Earning the # 3 or # 4 seed is crucial if we want a chance to dethrone either St. Mary's or Gonzaga for the title.  It means one less game to play to get to the title game.  That's what it's going to take to get an NCAA bid.  IF we can go 6-3 in the last nine WCC games our net ranking of 50-60 will not earn an at-large NCAA invite.  Maybe an NIT?  

How can we do this?  We will have to be ourselves, which is to push the ball and move the ball to our best open shooters.  We will have to outshoot opponents.  Limit hero threes and threes from players who know they are better from two.  Attack the basket and finish or dish.  Limit the "dribbling" into trouble.  Play smart.  Our defense will have to be good enough to stay in games and hope for a few big stops when needed.  

That's why I'm going "lost and found."  We've "lost" enough games we expected to win and should have, and now it time to find again the mid-season mojo we had in our 11-3 run.  We'll see tomorrow night against a St. Mary's team who has had our number for a long time, if we've "found" what it takes to play our way into the WCC final.

As usual, comments welcome!