Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Roller Coaster

 

                                                                                                                     

The Broncos have four games left to improve on their 17-10 record and to build momentum for the WCC Tournament.  It's been a roller coaster ride so far with this season's performance much like the four weather "seasons."  We're hot, we're cold, and at times, we've lost the "spring" in our step along the way.

Signature wins against Gonzaga and humbling losses to San Jose State and San Diego are prime examples of the roller coaster highs and lows.  So far only St. Mary's and USF have avoided losses in league to teams they are favored to beat.  Most every team has fought through key player injuries, including the Broncos, without starters Adama Bal and Brenton Knapper the last three games.  Tonight, St. Mary's will be without 6'8"starter Joshua Jefferson versus USF in Moraga.  A big break for the Don's.

Our highly touted depth was severely tested in those three games and responded with stalwart efforts; most notably in the "rumble" loss at USF.  Everyone lost their composure, including the officials who applied a non rules based double standard; ejecting six players. Despite all of the chaos and being short handed, we should have won this game.  We were a turnover and rebound away in the final seconds.  

Our recent wins versus Pacific and, on the road, at San Diego featured step up efforts by Jake Ensminger, Tyree Bryan, Cam Tongue and a breakout performance at USD by Jalen Benjamin with 23 points and sealing the deal; making 10 of 11 free throws.  We hope this is the start of Jalen playing to his potential down the stretch.  Freshman guard Christian Hammond made two starts after Knapper's injury and showed potential but needs more minutes to settle in and get comfortable.  

As a result, we appear to have fourth place in hand, but are two games back of either second or third depending on the outcomes of the road game at Gonzaga and final game at Leavey versus USF.  This assumes we don't falter playing away at Portland or at home against LMU; both near the bottom in the WCC.  With the four seed, we advance directly into the quarterfinals and most likely play either USD, LMU, or Pepperdine.  If we win that game, we play St. Mary's in the semis if they remain the # 1 seed.  

The good news is everything is still in play, including a possible post season NIT invite.  To have consideration for an NCAA bid, we would have the win the WCC tourney or beat Gonzaga and USF in our final league games.  It appears to be a done deal that only two WCC teams will get bids.  

With all we've had to play through this season, our full lineup, except perhaps Brenton Knapper, should be ready for the final four games and tourney.  Our bench is more battle tested and has played key roles down the stretch.  We'll need every player to be at their best.  

The roller coaster ride continues this Thursday at Leavey versus LMU.  Let's hope we enjoy the ride and finish strong the last four in the WCC! 

 

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Regression

 

                                                                                                                             

After two strong road wins and a thrilling home win versus Gonzaga, season ticket holders and fans felt the momentum for bigger things ahead for the Broncos.  It appeared that this team, with so many new faces, was finally progressing and coming together to challenge the WCC mainstays.  

That feeling and momentum evaporated two nights later at home against St. Mary's who sucked the air out of Leavey and the Broncos forging a 20 point lead in the first 11 minutes.  The hangover has stayed with us for six games.  While winning three and losing three of those games, we have started all these games by falling behind 10-15 points in the first 10 minutes.   It's a head scratcher for Bronco fans.  Same team, same coaches, different results.  It feels like a regression.  It's like going to a Taylor Swift concert and expecting a good show and then Travis Kelce shows up who can't sing a lick!

Currently, at 15-9 and 6-3 in the WCC, our margin for error is evaporating.  The loss to USD at home was a Quad 4 loss and a NET ranking disaster for postseason nods.  The disparities are befuddling.  In three of those games, we scored an average of 55 second half points, yet against USD we scored a TOTAL of 59 losing by 11; despite getting 27 offensive rebounds.  

In doing a little homework from our past three 20 win seasons, we have these off games in about 20% of our schedule; roughly six games a season.  Losses like San Jose State, Pepperdine, LMU, and Pacific.  It's college basketball.  Losing to top 60 ranked teams is expected, but not to teams ranked outside of the top 200.  Three games a season can make the difference between an NCAA invite or staying home.  It's crazy, but it's not much different than the Golden State Warriors, who with the best talent in the world, lose a lot of games with big leads going into the fourth quarter.

To our credit, we have also played six Quad 1 games, winning two.  By the time the season ends, we might get 2-3 more Quad 1 credits as teams we've played, like Washington State and others, beat top 50 teams.  By comparison Gonzaga and USF have no Quad 1 wins this season and St. Mary's has 4.

We know a lot about this team after 24 games.  We can score.  We can rebound.  We occasionally play defense.  We turn the ball over.  We can go on big runs - both good and bad.  I think for the coaches and fans, it's the unforced turnovers that are the most frustrating.  The passes to no one, the inability to secure the basketball after a good rebound, and the persistent fumbles in the paint.  Unfortunately, I think turnovers are here to stay.  We are who we are.  

IMHO, to reach our potential, we need a leader to emerge.  We have a scoring leader, a rebounding leader, an assist leader, but not a floor leader.  Someone who has the creds to rally his teammates, hold himself, and others accountable.  Someone when we go off the rails can settle us down and focus on the next play and not force hero shots.  Someone who has a "go to" shot to get us back on track.  The past two seasons we've had Podz and Jalen who could fill those roles and make the big shot or assist at crucial moments.  Even with them, we had our bad nights like the NIT first round losses to Washington State and Sam Houston.  

With seven WCC games left, we need to stop the regression with aggression and progression.  I can't think of a better place to start that than at USF.  The games this Saturday at USF and Saturday, March 2nd at Leavey are HUGE.  They are rivalry games and they'll be ready to prove they deserve a # 65 NET ranking.  These two games will most likely determine third place in the WCC.  They have @SMC, Zags, home/away with Pepperdine, home/away with SCU, and then @LMU.  We have Pacific, @USD, LMU, @Portland, @Zags and two with USF including the last game of the season at Leavey.

I feel like their schedule is harder.  Regardless, we need to go 5-2 to have any chance for outright third or tie.  IF we can get there, our strength of schedule could pay dividends.  We are # 71 and USF # 263.  

One thing for sure, never a dull moment for the Broncos.  This is what Coach Sendek and his staff have been building for - these moments.  We hope this building stands tall seven games from now!