Santa Clara Men's Basketball - We Need to Be "King of the Road" in the WCC

 

                                                                                                                  

After a 3-5 rough start to the season, the Broncos are riding a five game winning streak and stand at 8-5 after a blowout win against South Dakota before WCC league play starts.  While 8-5 is not what this team expected, three late game lapses with sizeable leads sent us off the rails of a season goal of finally making another NCAA tourney.  

While all is not lost, the slight odds of an NIT or NCAA berth depends upon this experienced team playing to their potential, and more, in the WCC.  We'll need to be "King of the Road" in league to have a sniff at postseason. 

The 18 game conference schedule is much more difficult than in the past as Washington State and Oregon State have crashed the party; adding two more worthy opponents who are ranked ahead of us.  This is on top of our usual nemeses, Gonzaga, St. Mary's, and USF; where we've have had very limited success against over the past eight seasons.  The short answer is, we can't afford a loss to the bottom five in the league: Portland, Pepperdine, LMU, USD, or Pacific.  Their average NCAA rank is # 259.  Compare the WCC top teams average ranking of # 45, skewed by the Zags at # 6.  

One's tendency would be to think that's 10 wins from the bottom 5 teams and expect 3 wins against the top teams for a 13-5 WCC record.  That would be a mistake, particularly when you inspect the league travel schedules.  The Broncos have seven one day rest turnarounds between games and most will require flights traveling far North to far South in that two day span.  Oh, and they'll need a practice after a game the night before and then, after practice, fly south and play that same night.   For example, we play LMU in Los Angeles on January 16th at 7:00 pm.  We then fly North to Spokane to play the Zags on January 18th at 6:00 pm!  Imagine this scenario 6 more times playing the other teams during league.  Daunting.

It's the same for most all WCC teams, except of course the Zags, who have fewer one day turnarounds AND more days between most games, three versus two days and four games with four days in between.  Perks for the perennial champs.  

So we have to be "King of the Road" to reach 13-5.  We will most likely lose one or two to the bottom 5, but will need to find two more upset wins against the top 5.  The Broncos' horses will be ridden hard and put away wet as they say in ranching.  

Everyone will have to play to their potential.  During our five game win streak, the new starting lineup has performed like was expected at the start of the season.  Christoph Tilly, Carlos Stewart, Jake Ensminger, and Elijah Mahi have sustained a high performance level in those games and, against Kennesaw State, Adama Bal had his best game of the season with 27 points.  Tyree Bryan has been clutch and Brenton Knapper and Cam Tongue have provided strong minutes.  

The key is we are moving the ball better as witnessed by 104 assists the past five games and, in each game, more assists than turnovers.  Consequently, the shot selection for the most part is much better and scoring is more balanced.  Even our defense has been better at key points in the game, but there's still much work needed to be done as we prefer to drop under high ball screens and leave good shooting opponents open three point looks.  As such, out of 364 D1 teams, we are ranked # 227 in three point rate defense. 

We will know after the first five WCC games if we are up to the challenge as we play USF twice in addition to Pepperdine and Oregon State at Leavey and San Diego on the road.  As Bronco season ticket holders and fans, we all know "it's good to be King" and "King of the Road" is what we aspire to and want to see happen!

Merry Christmas to all Bronco fans!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - We Need to Pull Rank

 

                                                                                                                      

If the Broncos are to salvage this season, we will need to pull some serious rank and if we don't, our season may end up being "rank."  

By pull rank, I mean we need to stop underperforming and significantly overperform our current team ranking and beat opponents ranked well ahead of us.  It's a tall order.  Our best hope is to play lights out in the WCC league regular season - think 2nd, and get the bye into the semifinals and then pull the ultimate rank and beat Gonzaga in the league tourney final.

NCAA analytics sites with rankings have their place, but can be inflated and biased due to placing higher values on power conference teams.  For example, our wins versus TCU and McNeese this season had them ranked inside the top 75.  No way they're that good.  Witness Stanford with a high ranking, who to whom we gave the game away, and then they go and lose to # 212 Cal Poly?  

The same principle applies to strength of schedule (SOS).  At 4-5 we have a SOS of # 47 in the country.  St. Mary's SOS is # 194 and USF # 289.  The key is they are winning games against teams they should beat.  We're not. 

It's all about how you're playing.  How consistent and good is your offense and defense.  Here's the data regarding the teams we must beat to get 2nd in the WCC. 

Rankings:

Gonzaga:      Offensive rate: 3   Defense: 14    Turnovers: 8   Three point Defense: 6

St. Mary's:    Offensive rate: 36   Defense: 91   Turnovers: 104   Three Point Defense: 151

USF:             Offensive rate:  64   Defense: 30   Turnovers: 250   Three point Defense: 111

Santa Clara: Offensive rate: 107  Defense: 108   Turnovers: 144   Three point Defense: 194

To give one relative perspective, Gonzaga is the # 4 ranked team in the NCAA, but they are the # 1 ranked combined overall offensive and defensive team   They score, don't turn it over, and defend well; all things that we struggle with.  Statistically, we are lagging in most all categories from last season albeit on a smaller sample size of nine games.  More notably our assists and free throw rates are down from last season as Bronco fans see the ball not moving, lots of dribbling, and what seems to be a three point from anyone, anywhere, at any time preference regardless of the shooter's three point shooting percentages.  

Starting tonight's game versus Fresno State, we hope to see this most experienced roster turn things around and get on track; not just trying the same things and expecting different results.  Start a four game win steak moving into league play and then "pull rank" on the WCC leaders and contend rather than lag back in 4th again.  

And that's something as fans and season ticket holders we can all pull for!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - "Soul Searching"

 

                                                                                                         

What happens when the most experienced team in the Coach Sendek era can't seem to perform to their own expectations or talent level?  Or when a team with a schedule designed to be NCAA worthy falls apart the first six games?  What about a roster that's ten deep and can't seem to find an on the floor combination that can consistently score or defend?  

How about having good second half leads in three games with under 3 minutes to play and lose all those games?  What if even fundamentals like working the clock late in the game to get the shot you want by the person you want to shoot it or making free throws to close out the game?  

It all ends up in the same place.  Soul searching.  Coaches and players together and players only to lay bare how to revive their season.  A locker room confessional of honesty, accountability, and commitment to each other with a penance of doing the work of turning this 2-4 start around.  A willingness to play the hot hands and sit the cold ones. 

The numbers are a head scratcher:  5 of our 8 core players are well behind their prior season averages; some significantly.   Out of 364 Division 1 teams, we are ranked # 180 in effective field goal offense, # 272 in 3pt field goal offense, # 244 in field goal defense, #330 in effective 3pt field goal defense, and # 257 in free throw rate offense.  

Soul searching...

It's only six games in, yet we seem to be taking the same approach.  Our game plans are to defend our opponents best three point shooters off the 3 point line, but we don't or can't; as our 3 point defense rank above shows.  Witness Saturday night against Stanford when Oziyah Sellers shredded us for 10 points with three minutes to play making two 3 pointers and an undefended dunk.  On our offense, we continue to shoot 3's early in the clock coming from those who might be better off taking it to the rim to get a better look or foul.  A # 257 free throw rate and assist rates make this apparent.   The ball and our players are not moving.

Our talent rank is #131 and WCC talent rank # 6.  

There are bright spots.  New Juco transfer Elijah Mahi is shooting it at 55% from two and three.  Christoph Tilly and Tyree Bryan are also off to good starts.  Bukky Oboye showed some skills Saturday night on defense and even made his first three.  Not bad for a  7'1" Freshman.   

Our depth, while an advantage, is fragile.  An advantage, in that we don't have much drop off from starters to second units with the exception at center, where our bigger subs are a freshman and a sophomore with only a few minutes playing time.   Fragile, in that the matchups on defense and rebounding can be more challenging when 7'0" Tilly and 6'10" Johnny O'Neil are off the floor.  Our size drops down about 4 inches per player to about 6'6".  

Herein may lie the Coaches dilemma.  Without Tilly, and if O'Neil and/or Bal are not shooting well that night, we get smaller fast.   Going smaller allows us to interchange capable shooters like Mahi and Bryan at the risk of not successfully defending opposing centers and rebounding.  The Coaches need to be able to go with the hot hands since we've had several 20% 3 point shooting games from starters.  Maybe Bukky Oboye can assume the minutes when Tilly and Cam are in early foul trouble freeing up Coaches to sub for shooters on off nights.  

We'll find out Thursday what if any changes will be made or rotations that might be different.  Standing pat may not bear fruit.  Even Steve Kerr sits Steph Curry when he's not right.   

Maybe soul searching and Mea Culpa's will have been done so we can start playing with more grit, ball movement, direction, and freedom.  We'll find out Thursday versus TCU. 

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - The Panic Button

 

                                                                                                                         

The promise of the most experienced roster in eight years under Coach Sendek was expected to make a lot of noise this season.  So far the noise they've made is a loud crash.  A 1-3 start is the reverse of what Bronco fans and, I think, Coaches planned on.  The season started with a good road win vs St. Louis and then devolved into chaos with bad losses to ASU, North Dakota State, and a drubbing by a good Nevada team. 

Is it time to push the panic button?   Maybe.

The players seems as confused as the fans.  On offense, there doesn't appear to be a set of "go to" plays when one is needed.  This team wants to score early in transition, a good thing, but not by solely jacking up 3's from long distance early in the clock.  Our core lineup is shooting 10.6% from three on an average of 31 threes per game.  Our second unit is much better; shooting 45% from three on 50 fewer attempts.  Our defense is allowing opponents to enjoy a 42% clip from deep.  Not a great combination.  

Curiously, our Achilles Heel from last season, turnovers are 25% less at under 10 per game.  Our assists are down 30% from our average last season.  Tough to get assists when you are struggling to make shots.

In game adjustments are hard to notice, as it seems we are desperately hoping for a "reversion to the mean" by playing the same way.   The problem so far is what is the new mean?   One bright spot is from one of our players new to the system, Elijah Mahi, a JC transfer who is leading the team in scoring at 17 ppg while shooting over 60%.  Clearly, something different is needed to get this talented roster on track.  

Time for the panic button?  Not quite yet.  However, it would be a big boost to win six of the next seven games against teams we would expect to beat, with perhaps a loss against either the Colorado State/ Washington game.  Emerging at 7-4 from the next three weeks would restore some confidence and momentum to finish the pre-season and head into the WCC schedule.  

Certainly, the season expectations of a post season berth will be in play over the next three weeks.  We'll know if we're on track or will need a WCC tournament championship upset to meet the expectations this roster and Bronco fans expect. 

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - My Interview with New Athletic Director Heather Owen

 

                                                                                                                 

On November 5th President Julie Sullivan, the Board of Trustees, and the search committee made the decision to hire Heather Owen as Santa Clara Athletics' Director.   The hire comes at a pivotal time for all Santa Clara teams and, most notably, for Men's Basketball.  While great strides have been made in MBB, we remain parked in third or fourth in the WCC behind perennial powerhouse Gonzaga along with St. Mary's and USF.  

The timing couldn't be better now that our MBB Athletic facilities are of national quality, removing one of the biggest obstacles for recruiting more talent.  We are poised to able to make the move to higher level of competitiveness with goals to make the NCAA tournament frequently.  

While the opportunities are great, so are the challenges to actually achieve them in the new NCAA world as a result of the legal judgement allowing "pay for play."  This opportunity to be on a level with Gonzaga, Xavier, Villanova, Creighton, and Marquette has been talked about for the last 10 years, but to my knowledge a specific plan with accountability has yet to be implemented.  President Sullivan has stated "we're not where we need to be in Men's Basketball."  This is not a slap at Coach Sendek nor his staff, rather a clear recognition of the immense value to the entire University that a top 25, NCAA tournament level team fosters.  

So, what was it about Heather Owen that prompted her selection?  President Sullivan said Heather, "As a leader, she has the smarts and strategic and operational acumen needed to achieve excellence and, importantly, the candor, calm, and trustworthiness required to successfully manage the challenges faced in building a highly competitive program."  

Quite an endorsement.  In our conversation, it was evident that she understands top level success given her tenure as Stanford Athletics department senior administrator and more importantly her competitive basketball career playing in three NCAA final fours for Tara VanDerveer.  When asked what made Tara Vanderveer so successful for so many years, her answer was that she had a keen eye for talent and developed it into sustained top ten level program.  Tara was demanding and got the most from her players.  

Heather stated plainly it's all about talent.  She recalled a Tara Vanderveer quote "that you can't win the Kentucky Derby riding on a donkey."  That quote summarizes the magnitude of what Heather and we face in MBB.  Our roster this year is a good one; maybe the overall best in the Herb Sendek eight years.  Our talent level has progressed based on Santa Clara's history, but not fast enough to challenge Gonzaga or St. Mary's.  Even USF has landed talented big men and certainly guards.  Our 6-19 record versus the Dons since 2016 is evidence of their strides. 

I really enjoyed hearing from Heather about what we want to become in MBB, but given where we are and have remained, it's a tall order even for Heather who is 6'4".

It's seems to me to be a radical change that's needed, not an SCU strong suit.  We have a history of being too patient for results.  I think 28 years for an NCAA invite is patient enough.  IMHO, this aspiration to compete at the level mentioned will require changes and upgrades far surpassing the current or any funding level in any SCU sport.  

Two examples for MBB are NIL and direct payment to athletes from the University budget.  NIL is the "Name, Image, Likeness" that, in the past, was outside of direct University purview; where corporate or other sponsors could contract with athletes and compensate them for using their images, whether social media, ads, etc.  This has now become essentially "unregulated" as a result of the NCAA lawsuit settlement.  Want a 5* recruit either from high school or the transfer portal?  There is a going rate and it's not cheap.  I don't know our budget, but the Zags purportedly drop $ 3+ mil here.  No wonder their roster is always stacked.  Want to help, call Heather.  The ante is $ 3 Mil for openers.

In March 2025, the lawsuit will likely be ratified or modified where athletes can be paid directly for their services by Universities.  Welcome to Jerry Maguire.  Want talent.  "Show me the Money!" 

These are only two of a number of  areas that Heather and her team will have to navigate for MBB to make a legit try to move up.  The Bronco athletic staff so far seems impressed.  I do believe there is sincere motivation from Heather to be a difference maker here as she was reported to be at Stanford.  For Bronco season ticket holders and fans the former "go slow" process for change at SCU has worn itself out.  Slow is not part of Silicon Valley culture and we should take that to heart.  

It's clear Heather has the tools to succeed.   We'll see soon enough if she can use those tools to "build" athletics and, in particular, Men's Basketball into an NCAA tourney level program.  

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Should We Expect Great Expectations?

 

                                                                                                                 

In 2013, SCU Athletic Director Dan Coonan declared with great enthusiasm a "new day" for Santa Clara Athletics when Fr. Michael Engh convened an elite panel to study and recommend the path forward for Athletics.  

In July 2014, the SCU Board of Trustees approved the President's Blue Ribbon Commission Plan for "national relevance" for Bronco Athletics and, in particular, Men's Basketball.  This became a piece of the SCU 2020 strategic plan.  The results for Men's Basketball during this seven year period was three winning seasons without any WCC titles, NIT or NCAA invites.  That's not national prominence.  The only National program was Women's Soccer with six NCAA appearances and, yes, a National Championship College Cup in 2020.

From 2021-2024 there was significant improvement in Men's Basketball.  Four consecutive winning seasons, three 20+ win seasons, two NBA first round draft picks, and two NIT invites.  Our NBA picks got us great national press and exposure; yet for all this improvement, we remain in 3rd and 4th place in the WCC.  

In January 2023, current President Julie Sullivan initiated the Impact 2030 strategic plan that mentions Women's Soccer and Men's Basketball as part of the "Belonging for all Broncos" strategic priority to engage and foster pride in our students.  This 2030 plan, I believe, will be the third time Men's Basketball is mentioned, but this plan is silent on the goal of national prominence.  

For Bronco season ticket holders and fans, we aren't sure if we're hoping for "third times a charm" or "playing the three card monte shell game?"  

No doubt, from 2020-2024, our athletics facilities and staff finally enjoyed the makeover  that the University academic areas have flourished from for the past 20 years.  But if you read the Impact 2030 recap of results from the 2020-2024 strategic plan under National Prominence, there is no mention of Athletics in the "University on the Rise" summary. 

We have been down this road before with Father Locatelli and Father Engh, and, now President Sullivan in addition to previous Athletic Directors Dan Coonan and Renee Baumgartner plus coaches Kerry Keating, Herb Sendek, and staff.  

It would be nice to see a set of Goals for Athletics and, in particular, Men's Basketball, that have specifics and accountability.  President Sullivan, The Trustees, and new A.D. Heather Owen are openly talking about and seem committed to rising another level to challenge Gonzaga and the other big five national Catholic Universities in Men's Basketball.  

It's a perfect time to "go for it" with NCAA sports and Men's Basketball becoming a free agent market - to go get more talent.  Find it and NIL it.  It works for Gonzaga, Creighton, Xavier, Villanova, and Marquette.  The thing is, many of our donors love having their names on a building.  How about a WCC championship or consistent NCAA invites instead?  That's unprecedented national PR exposure.  I love Rhodes Scholars, but I also love basketball All- Americans like we used to have.  Who gets more press for the University? 

Our coaches, while piling up consecutive 20 win seasons, come from conferences where four teams usually get NCAA invites due to the strength of the league competition.  Not the WCC.  Just not going to happen, unless you win the league or the conference tournament.  That's not going to change when Gonzaga bolts for the Pac 10 or 12 or whatever number of teams.  We will still have to deal with St.. Mary's, USF, and others that will challenge for that title and maybe only one NCAA ticket.

I think season ticket holders want either to be bold or fold.  Use this season of winning to build a war chest of what it takes to go to the next level.  We have the roster to make a statement this year.  

How?  Make the NCAA tournament this season.  Then, although the way above my pay grade, maybe SCU to the PAC 12 in 2026?  Sound crazy?  With Gonzaga moving to the PAC 12 they must have assurances the league will survive.  Washington State and Oregon State are moving from the WCC to the Pac 12 in 2026 as well.  

The upside is, it would help our scheduling with more selective non-conference games because the league competition would be much stronger.  It would signify a real commitment to this notion of rivaling Gonzaga and the other teams mentioned above.  Our coaches built their resumes in the PAC 12 type leagues, so it's not a foreign concept.  For recruiting, better players want better competition.  

The downside is we forego the possibility to win league titles or tournaments and qualify for NCAA's in a weakened WCC.  It's is definitely a cheaper solution.  The other risk is similar to our Achilles Heel of the past 30 years - money, commitment, and accountability.

If we want to be truly National, we need to earn it.  

If it all doesn't' work out, we can always go down to a level of recreational sports and continue to be a strong academic presence in Silicon Valley.

So, should we expect great expectations?  We hope so.  We would love to see the Broncos as a horse to ride into an NCAA tourney!

Next up.  My interview with our New Athletics Director - Heather Owen.

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - It's a Numbers Game

 

                                                                                                                   

AI - Artificial Intelligence is dominating media headlines as a definitive way to solve massive data intensive problems.  It's use in NCAA Men's Basketball will revolutionize the speed and insight provided to coaches stemming from analytics that capture every detail from every player and every possession.  

It's a numbers game that will become the basis of how "Money Ball" will take over college athletics.  Our new A.D. will have to integrate all the current best practices of traditional college athletics with the rapidly unfolding "money ball" world where the price tag of top talent just got a huge raise. 

Coaches, who for most of their careers, have relied on years of experience and judgement, now have added tools in building competitive rosters, scheduling, game planning, and in-game decisions based on actual situational statistical facts.  They'll need new tools, as the long standing model of recruiting young players and developing them like Jalen Williams has morphed into buy now, win now through the new free agency NCAA transfer portal.  

This is a pivotal year for the Broncos.  The petabytes of NCAA basketball analytics predict success when a team has a roster of returnees and transfers that played more than 60% of the previous season's minutes and teams that execute the "Four Factors" better than their opponents.  SCU's returning roster minutes - 76%.

The four factors in order of importance are: 

Effective FG% Efficiency:  A formula that combines a teams two and three point percentages.   Performance Weight:  40%, SCU 2025 National Rank:  90

Protecting the Ball:  Turnovers.  Performance Weight:  25%, SCU 2024 Rank:  277

Controlling the Boards:  Rebounding.  Performance Weight:  20%, SCU 2024 Rank:  18

Converting at the Line:  Free throw %.  Performance Weight: 15%,  SCU Rank: 215

Here are the projected numbers for the Broncos in 2024-2025.  The predictions are based upon the actual performances of every player on our current roster versus every team on our schedule and using every players total offensive and defensive possessions from last season.  These come from multiple sources.  

Current pre-season NCAA team rank 99.  Expected record 18-12.  WCC Season projection has us tied for 4th with USF.  Projected effective roster talent:  WCC, 7th.  Roster Experience rank:  WCC, 3rd.  Offensive efficiency rank: NCAA  90; WCC, 3rd.  Defensive efficiency rank:  NCAA, 112; WCC, 5th.  NCAA tournament chance:  Seeded 11%; Auto bid 6.4%; Total Odds 6.9%.

On Offense, we have two players ranked in the WCC top 20 - #18 and #20.  Gonzaga has six, USF with five, and St. Mary's five.

On defense, we have one player ranked in the top 10 in the WCC and two others top 20.  Gonzaga, St. Mary's and USF own the other 17 top spots. 

While projections are just data backed assumptions, it's clear we have work to do.  The data doesn't project roster improvement, just the value of the talent and returning roster minutes and experience.  How can our coaches get the maximum development and improvement from our players?  Can we adapt our system of play on offense and defense to unlock the talent that might be unique in this roster?  The top teams, Gonzaga and St. Mary's, are exceptional at creating mis-matches both on offense and defense that propel them to the number # 1 offense and top 20 defense.  

Identifying the improvements needed is easy.  Correcting them is much harder and a big hill to climb for the Broncos.  NCAA tournament level teams in the WCC and on our schedule average rank on offense was 41 and defense 40.  SCU was 107 and 134.  Their turnover rates average 10/game versus SCU at 13.  That amounts to about 100 possessions for the season at an SCU offensive point per possession rate of 109.8 or 110 more points.  I think we all know where we could have used those extra points.

In spite of the hill to climb, we are still in the mix for post season and with some upsets and no losses to 200 plus ranked teams an NCAA.   We're going to need to go full "Podziemski" mode this season - overlooked, underrated and come out of nowhere to impose our will on our opponents.  Post some "numbers" we can all be proud of and prove the prognosticators wrong!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Major Decisions

 

                                                                                                                     

The search for the next SCU Athletics Director should be nearing final interviews with an anticipated selection by September 1st.  Many positive things have happened under Renee Baumgartner, Coach Sendek, and staff in the past eight years.  

While all the upgrades have created a new foundation and successes in SCU Athletics and Men's Basketball, at the end of the day our MBB NCAA ranking has not materially changed since 2010.  We are still stuck in the middle at fourth and a few thirds in the WCC.  Our successive 20 wins seasons are a vast improvement in winning, but the level of competition has risen faster than our ability to claw our way out of the mid-major label and into serious NCAA invite consideration. 

Our new A.D. will have some "MAJOR" decisions to make as will our University Administration and Trustees if we are to compete on a level with the Zags and St. Mary's as well as other nationally established Catholic University brands.  Here's a short checklist of what the above schools are doing and what we need to do to rise to the next level.

The Roster:  Any analytics site that covers Men's Basketball will show that talent drives the results.  Talent arrives though several means.  It takes a keen recruiting eye, a network to access top level prospects in the portal and high schools along with Coaches who can develop talent and a team that can achieve NCAA level tourney results.   SCU talent has improved, but we have just one player with a performance rating in the top # 20 in the WCC at # 19.  The Zags have 6, St. Mary's 6, and USF 5 in the top 20.

Our Facilities are top 25 caliber.  Our reputation and visibility has grown with two first round NBA picks and the coaches who developed them.  It would be huge to have a top 25 team ranking to equal the level of our facilities.

NIL Money needs a Big boost and the new Santa Clara NIL exchange could help.  To successfully recruit skilled transfers and top level high school prospects, NIL money is the tie breaker and trump card SCU needs to have in its arsenal.  IF, we really aspire to play with the Zags we have to pay like the Zags.  To get us in the game, send your $4 million check to Santa Clara Men's Basketball.  

Improved Analytics in NCAA Men's Basketball has exploded; providing top level coaches with sound data driven insights into player performance by being able to review the outcome of every players' total season offensive and defense possessions and rank it versus any specific opponent, player, or other metric.  More on this next article.  Powerful.  

Student Engagement is the "in game" energizer for top 25 teams.  Their students are all in and fill arenas.  SCU student engagement has improved slightly, but is woefully behind our competition.  

Community Engagement is another area offering major benefits.  Our WCC competitors have figured out building a loyal, local fan base that supports their teams.  Winning, conference titles, and NCAA invites is the kindling to ignite local families to enjoy Division 1 competition. While we fill the stands with half time community dance teams, others fill them with paying season ticket holders.  

Marketing has improved somewhat during the past eight seasons.  Budgets are always a problem, but to season ticket holders it appears we act like a small program rather than plan events for what we want to become.  The Zags staffs are not just staff, they're program development and delivery managers.  "Kraziness in the Kennel" has achieved near "Burning Man" level type student and community support.  It's the kickoff event in Spokane.  At Midnight!  Rightfully, their success has inspired this, but maybe we should consider something bigger.  The pre-game Bistro in the AEC and the pre-season preview held in Leavey draw the same 50-75 die hard SCU Basketball fans - not 5,000.   

There are no easy solutions to the above, but it could be beneficial to lay out a new strategy.  Particularly, since this season we will have perhaps our most talented and experienced team in the Sendek era that has real potential to deliver another 20 wins and a post season invite.  We need a 3 point shot of adrenaline in our program.  

This is the season to make it happen!

                                                                                                                                

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - My Conversation With SCU President Dr. Julie Sullivan

 

                                                                                                                          

In March of 2022, the decision was made to hire Dr. Julie Sullivan as the 30th President of Santa Clara University.  The selection was notable for a number of reasons.  It broke the tradition of a Jesuit priest at the helm and the first woman to lead Santa Clara into the future.  

It was a bold move coming at one of the most critical junctures in SCU history;  developing the University strategy going forward following the Pandemic.  How would her past nine years experience at St. Thomas University, in Minnesota, translate to Silicon Valley to meet the challenges of maintaining and, more importantly, dramatically expand the national reputation of the University?

A key ingredient to me, besides her considerable credentials, was her leadership in making the decision to elevate St. Thomas Men's Basketball from NCAA Division 3 to Division 1.  BTW, this transition had never been done before in NCAA Men's Basketball.  The reasons for making the move stemmed from the desire to significantly raise the profile of the University.  Their team, the Tommie's had a 14 year run of trouncing every team in their league to the point where the league booted them out.   They are now thriving in Division 1.

The message is, we now have a President who firmly grasps the significance of success in Athletics and, particularly Men's Basketball, to building a national reputation.  A concept Gonzaga figured out 25 years ago.  Their stat line since 2000:  25 straight NCAA tournament invites, 22 outright or shared WCC titles, 9 straight NCAA Sweet 16 appearances, and, by the way, more than a tripling of their endowment.  Their 20/20 strategic plan that began in the year 2000 admits Men's Basketball saved Gonzaga from significant financial woes.  

Enough history.  As I said in my last column - The next A.D. hire will tell us all that we need to know re: Athletics and Men's Basketball.  Here's what President Sullivan had to say during our conversation.  

I shared with her two major things Season Ticket Holders, Alums, and Fans want to know about Men's Basketball.   They are: What NCAA teams match the competitive level are we seeking?  Will we have the backing of the Trustees and donors to fund this order of magnitude jump?  

She made an impression in her first four words, "Please, call me Julie."  No fluff.  Her command of the state of Santa Clara Athletics and Men's Basketball was evident.  She is keenly aware of the stranglehold that Gonzaga and SMC hold on the WCC and said "we're not where we need to be."  

When asked about the level and experience of the A.D. candidates we are targeting, she sent me the position description and highlighted the search committee members who plan to make a decision by the end of August.  BTW, there are strong people on the search committee who know Basketball.  In addition, the current slate of University Trustees has more members that believe Athletics and Men's Basketball needs to play a bigger role in growing the University's national profile.

She wasn't taking pot shots at Renee or Coach Sendek, rather stating we need to dethrone or compete at a level equal to Gonzaga; acknowledging their significant head start.  She was not reluctant to say we need to be at a similar competitive level as Xavier, Marquette, Villanova, Creighton, as well as Gonzaga.  Nor was there hedging that making NCAA tournaments often was the goal.  Given St. Thomas' unprecedented move from D3 to D1 and $150 million in infrastructure makeover money raised, what she and St. Thomas athletic director Dr. Phil Esten accomplished was remarkable.  Maybe he should be our next phone call?  

Athletics is already a significant number in the University budget, but with the recent NCAA lawsuit settlement and resulting changes in NIL, the budget will need to grow much larger.  As an example, estimates have Gonzaga Men's Basketball NIL money last season approaching $3 million.  SCU has made strides growing our NIL, but the strides will need to turn into leaps to get to the higher competitive level we seek. 

The new A.D. will report to her as part of the President's cabinet and will be given latitude to make the changes necessary if results to build SCU into a higher level national Brand fall short.  She is a believer in two other major fundamentals to expanding our Brand.  First, energizing the students is "hugely important."  Secondly, building community within SCU and Silicon Valley.  Both have been severely lacking as it relates to Men's Basketball.  Many of our current students have little clue of SCU athletics past or present.  Unless it's games versus St. Mary's, USF, or the Zags, other than the Rough Riders, Leavey is less than one-third full of it's 4,500 capacity.  This is not the case with the schools mentioned above located in smaller areas.  They sell out and are sources of pride to their surrounding communities. 

As Bronco Fans we've heard this before about achieving more success at higher levels.  Those plans fell short and needed a more sustained effort.  There's no doubt we are consistently winning more, but still idling in third in the WCC.  The media buzz from two first round draft picks and two NIT's has been so much better, but we still have a big hill to climb.  The biggest thing I took away from our call is President Sullivan's knowledge and conviction of the opportunities national success in Men's Basketball offers.  

I can't remember another President who's knowledge was even close.  There is a sincere, grounded, authenticity to the strategy and I'm hopeful there's immediate action once the A.D. is announced.  This is a potential monumental change with potentially monumental rewards.  Oh, and by the way, call her Julie!

Next up: What will need to change to approach this new competitive profile on Men's Basketball.

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Now What?

   

                                                                                                                         

The hiring of Santa Clara's next Athletic Director will tell Bronco season ticket holders, fans, alums and students all they need to know about the trajectory and future of Athletics and, in particular, Men's Basketball.  

When Dr. Renee Baumgartner was hired nearly nine years ago as Santa Clara's Athletics Director, the selection was met with great optimism and skepticism.  Skeptics didn't feel she had the "creds" and optimists believed her past stops at bigger name schools and energy would help take Athletics, especially Men's Basketball, to another level.  

Renee's hiring came on the heels of the 2015 SCU President's Commission on Athletics which declared, among other goals, that it was their intent to achieve and maintain a National Reputation in Men's Basketball.  Her first major move was to hire Coach Herb Sendek as Men's Basketball coach who came from stints at N.C. State and Arizona State.  Again, the idea was to take us to another level to rival Gonzaga who has dominated the WCC for the past 25 years.

Fast forward to now.  Four recent 20 win seasons, two NIT's, and back to back NBA 1st round draft picks and we are definitely at another level; a winning level in Men's Basketball.  

The question has to be asked, is this the level we aspire to?  Can we build off the successes of Renee and Coach Sendek and become a legit "national" level program to match our national level facilities, or are we satisfied with winning and settling for third in the WCC and our "mid-major" label?  

Due to the changing NCAA landscape, this may be the biggest decision in Santa Clara history regarding Athletics that Dr. Sullivan and the Trustees will have to make.  In the past, the University has not compromised building out our Academic facilities or hiring the best Professorial talent.  IMHO, until recently, Athletics has not been a strategic part of the mission on the Mission campus.  

Other small religious based Universities figured out 25+ years ago that using Athletics and, in particular, Men's Basketball as a strategic weapon that built National recognition and Endowments that funded key aspects of their Academic and facility needs.  Witness the successes of Villanova, Marquette, Xavier, and of course, Gonzaga.

The challenge will only get more expensive and harder as transfer portals, NIL pay for play, and the recent $2.8 billion NCAA legal settlement with the Power Conferences will change the landscape of the NCAA.  You're talking about perhaps the most significant changes since Title IX was adopted in 1972.

We've been down this road before and punted until 2015-16.  

The choices and financials associated with becoming truly National are equally daunting.  One choice is to pack it in, go down to non-scholarship Division 3, like Chapman or Lewis and Clark, and have athletics be more like intercollegiate intramurals; an extracurricular activity at minimal cost.  BTW, there are more schools in Division 3, (434) than in Division 1, (352).   With the legal settlement mentioned above, this will be an option as the cost of Division 1 will rise dramatically as athletes will have to be compensated by the Universities and/or NIL corporate contracts.  

Another choice is to invest.  Make the commitment to actually become national rather than just buzz words.  Why settle for mid-level in Men's Basketball?  The optics and financial payoff of success are enormous.  

Even with the recent improvements, much will need to change.  First, and foremost, is hiring a "been there, done that" Athletics Director who has the mandate and funding from the Trustees to get to National.  National means no less than a top 40 and preferably a top 25 ranking.  These are NCAA invite worthy rankings.  

Following that, staff, facilities, marketing, fundraising, both community and alum outreach,  fan experience and much more will need upgrades.  Our basketball schedule will need to continue the upward competitive level from last season.  This cannot be a "words only" get to National like the 2015 declaration from the Commission on Athletics.  

The search committee is nearly in place.  The "draft" board of candidates will follow and hopefully by end of summer we might know where SCU Athletics and Men's Basketball are headed.  

For season ticket holders and fans, we hope we don't settle for less than we can become.  So, now what?  

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Unfinished Business

 

                                                                                                                       

After a successful 20-13 season, there were many questions as to what might happen with the Broncos given the new "free agency" rules in Men's Basketball resulting from NIL and the transfer portal.   Pay to play is the new stratagem to building rosters versus the tried and true high school recruiting process.  Matching big NIL dollars is not in the SCU playbook.  The most visible example being National Champion UCONN who lost 4 players but found 5 others in the portal to repeat as Champs.  It makes total dollars and sense.  

Over 1,000 players entered the portal;  all seeking a better deal or playing time situation on a higher profile team.  Even St. Mary's, known for "home grown" development, lost two key players including Aiden Mahaney to, you guessed it, UCONN.  Santa Clara benefitted from the portal the prior two seasons getting Brandin Podziemski and last season landing five transfers who played significant minutes.

With the Broncos parked in third in the WCC, some hoped the portal would help us find key players needed to move up.  Well, guess what?  Only one, uno, transfer.  Former Bronco Carlos Stewart decided to come back from LSU.  Basically, we are standing "pat".  No new blood.   

The only major departure for SCU will be Athletics Director Renee Baumgartner, who is stepping down on June 30th, to attend to family matters.  While Renee didn't play a game or score a point for MBB, she paved the way for more success; revitalizing a neglected program by former SCU administrations adding facilities and programs that have the potential for SCU to rise to legit National status.  More on this topic coming.

So why did the players stay?  So far, no coaching departures either despite opportunities.  Certainly there was money out there for a few players to showcase their talents on a bigger stage.  My feeling is, there's unfinished business these coaches and players desperately want to accomplish.  

As fans and season ticket holders we know what "could" have been.  I think these players feel the current stage is big enough.  They just need to play to their potential which, to be honest, didn't happen consistently last season.  The highs were high, but the lows too low.  We beat Gonzaga, but lost to Portland and lowly others.  

Let's face it, everyone in the WCC is raiding the portal to get immediate results.  Higher profile name coaches are coming to the WCC.  They're not coming here to lose.  Gonzaga is still Gonzaga.  They lost players to the portal, but still improved their roster.  St. Mary's lost top players, but was able to retain key pieces and harvested promising talent that Randy Bennett will know how to develop.  No one is standing "pat" except SCU.  

Let's be clear, standing "pat" doesn't mean standing still.  Players can, and do, improve when they have the talent, work ethic, and detailed coaching.  I believe each SCU MBB player has their own development plan and measurements to track progress.

The question is what will be different?  Should we expect more from the same players, running the same offense and defense, and coaching game plans with just one more season of experience?  Maybe.  If, in fact, this is what the players are thinking, that's a good start.

Here's what fans and season ticket holders think need improvement to get out of third gear in the WCC and contend for an NCAA invite.  I've added some benchmark stats to compare  the Broncos performance to both the WCC and NCAA qualifiers we played in 2024.  While there are other key factors beyond just stats that position teams to warrant NCAA bids, the stats for these qualifiers reveal performance baselines to get into the selection conversation.

On offense:  Reduce turnovers by 25% from 12.8 to an average of 10 or less per game.  Improve our assists to turnover ratio 25% with more efficient ball movement from 1.2 to an average of 1.5 per game.  Improve our inside/out offensive production where our bigs are better positioned to score down low AND pass outside to open 3 point shooters.  Over a third of our 422 turnovers came from our bigs when they were stopped in the post; often too far from the basket.

On defense:  Improve the defensive scheme to handle the pick and roll.  Play physical without fouling.  Our opponents overall shooting percentages were 5% higher than the above peer group of NCAA teams.  We shoot the ball well, but give up better shots to opponents.  Sounds like a nit, but 5% on 2,000 shots, not trivial.  We gave up more free throw attempts to opponents and to the peer group than we shot.  Lastly, we generated 30% fewer steals from our opponents than they stole from us.  

Overall:  Run offenses and defense with "purposeful"  intentional motion.  The peer sample teams don't just go through the motions, they catch defenses with their screens, actively go to exploit clear mismatches, and can stop opposing teams best players from taking over games.  

A lot went right for us to get 20 wins.  We were "in the mix" with 11 games left for a postseason invite.  Our 5-6 finish might be the reason our players are staying.   That's why I call it unfinished business.  

In a way, it's a gutsy call on the part of the players and coaches. They could have run away into the portal or other coaching gigs, but didn't.  Instead, face the challenge straight on.  Stare it down.  That's a competitive spirit you're got to love.   IMHO, this will be also be the greatest challenge for our coaches as well.  

There's no doubt to the potential of this roster.  Molding this roster into a team that contends in the WCC and for post season is the "unfinished business" our coaches want to and need to deliver for Bronco fans. 

We all hope it will be worth the wait!

Santa Clara men's Basketball - 2023-2024 Season Recap

 

                                                                                                                 

It's taken me more than a month to write this 2023-24 season recap, as it's not just me, but many Bronco season ticket holders and fans are conflicted as to what kind of season it was or wasn't. 

Given the past 30 years of Men's Basketball, one has to be happy with another 20 win season; the fourth 20 win season in the past five.  Add two NIT appearances, two first round NBA draft picks in that stretch and it's undeniable that Coach Sendek and his staff have made great progress.

The open question from many is progress towards what?  In 2015, there was a big hoopla over the President's Blue Ribbon Committee on Athletics where the strategic decision was made to fund athletics and commit to a "National Reputation" by 2020 for Santa Clara.  With the hiring of Renee Baumgartner in 2015, and, soon after Coach Herb Sendek, Men's Basketball was the focal point for this national focus as Women's Soccer was already established as SCU's most successful program. 

The "what" measure of success for Men's Basketball has yet to be either defined or made public.  Women's Soccer's goal is clear - make the NCAA tournament every year AND compete for the NCAA championship.  

What is our Goal in Men's Basketball?  Winning breeds the desire from season ticket holders to want more.  They don't think we built the AEC just to win 20 games a season without more, like - WCC titles or NCAA tournament invites. 

Commitment to goals can be difficult for universities and SCU is no exception. If you've ever read an administrator or coaches' bios, you know that they are always rosy.  Why go out on a limb?  Just ask Jerod Haase, now former Men's Basketball Coach at Stanford, who stated publicly, they expected to be in NCAA tournament or the season would be a failure.  It got him fired when they fell woefully short.  It would be refreshing for SCU fans to know what we are shooting at for MBB.

There are many schools our size who really are "national" in Men's Basketball and have top 25 rankings to prove it.  I mean if the Zags in Spokane and Creighton in Omaha can, why not us?  If two first round draft picks, and another NBA candidate declaring, is moving the needle, imagine what adding NCAA tournament bids would do?  Coach Sendek is a builder and has built a solid foundation but with eight seasons in the books, it seems we're still parked in third in the WCC.  More on this in another write.

This past season was designed to make a push upward.  We played eight NCAA tournament qualifiers and had big wins over Oregon, Washington State, Duquesne, and Gonzaga. That was a step up and could have been six wins if not for two meltdowns late in the second half.   As good as those wins were, losses to SJS, Cal, Portland and San Diego were death knells to the post season.

Injuries were also a factor, but every team faced them and we just didn't respond as well as we could have.  To be honest, it seemed as though we played to our hype level too few times and key players were non factors too many times.  Some believe there was "playing for pro scouts" instead of teammates.  Not buying that, but it seemed we were unable to find a floor leader to get us into a rhythm and exploit favorable matchups like the top three in the WCC have on their rosters.  

As a team, we turned it over more and had more than 30 fewer steals than in the past two seasons.  That's a tough combination and a lot of possessions to overcome; especially with eight new players to the roster.  At the highest echelons in college basketball, teams like UCONN can make that happen and as their Coach Hurley said "we recruit 5-6 future pros and let them play."  A luxury we can't reach.  

Everyone has their opinions, but for me, I'd grade this season a "B."  Achieving 20 wins is great, but it's no secret to fans who watched we left a lot on the table.  Yes, people got hurt, and there was lots to overcome, but we just didn't play to our potential often enough to break out of third in the WCC and reach an NCAA.  It was there, but we fell short, only if the expectations of fans is one shared by our A.D. and coaches?  

It seems to me the staff and players feel this way as with the exception of Adama Bal declaring for the NBA draft, no one on our roster jumped into the transfer portal.  My guess is they want a mulligan for last season and by sticking together believe more can be achieved.  

So, we're back to the infamous line, "there's always next year" chatter.  After almost 30 years since the last NCAA invite, it's starting to feel like "Groundhog Day."  

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - The Climb

 

      

                                                                                                                    

The Broncos finished WCC league play with a much needed win over USF at Leavey.  Finishing at 19-12 we secured the fourth seed in the WCC Tournament.  We play a surging San Diego team tonight for the right to play St. Mary's in the semifinals.

Beating USD in the tourney would earn us our fourth 20 win season in the past five years and the opportunity to face St. Mary's in the semi-finals.  While the 20 wins seasons and two straight NIT invites are certainly a big improvement in winning, it's been nearly 30 years since we made the finals of the WCC tourney and 27 years since our last NCAA invite.  Despite all the success, we still haven't been able to unseat Gonzaga or St. Mary's as the perennial league leaders.  

The past eight years under coach Sendek and his staff have led to a steady "climb" in every aspect of the program except a Championship title of any kind.  We've had opportunities, but have not been able to break through.  

Our record in the WCC tourney reflects the long drought making it to the finals.  Much of the poor tourney record stems from many years of the inability to compete in talent with recruiting challenges due to outdated facilities, little MBB program staff, and most importantly sustained top level University commitment.  

Those obstacles vanished with the hiring of Coach Sendek and the opening of the A.E.C  Interestingly enough, our last WCC Tourney final appearance was with future NBA MVP Steve Nash in 1993.   With our recent historic back to back first round NBA draft picks we still have not burst the bubble of getting to the finals or winning the WCC tourney.  

Maybe this is our year!  Don't be fooled, USD is a tough out.  Well coached, and, under Steve Lavin, have found talent quickly that are performing on the court.  They have confidence and realize the moment.  

Tonight we hope to see our team continue the climb and take care of USD for a great opportunity in the semis versus St. Mary's. 

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - The Search Continues

 

                                                                                                                  

It's now thirty games into our season and we still seem to be searching for a lineup that can start a game, execute some consistency on offense and defense, exploit favorable matchups, and make good decisions with the basketball.  What was a conundrum has now become an enigma, perplexing, or any other term to describe a roster that can beat top 25 teams and lose four games to teams wallowing down in the #250-320 in the rankings.  

Portland was just the latest example of not figuring out the above.  In spite of the Broncos being outrebounded, outshot, and giving up 38 points in the paint, we were one missed free throw away, with 15 seconds left, from winning that game.  It's de-ja' vu from the recent USF loss.  It's a reason that St. Mary's is dominating the WCC this year.  They make proper adjustments and are coached to and able to close out games even when they don't play well.  

We watched as Portland's Tyler Robertson torched us, again, for 32 points without making a three point shot.  They took advantage of our small lineup and pounded the ball to him down in the paint and we couldn't stop it with Tilly and Caffaro on the bench.  They also spread the floor wide and drove the lane unimpeded for layups.  On our part, we didn't seem to try to exploit our height advantage.  Tilly and Caffaro played a total of 24 minutes scoring only six points. 

For Bronco Fans and Season Ticket Holders, an 18-12 record is below expectations.  Sure injuries, short rest intervals between games due to travel are factors, but not unlike what other WCC teams have faced.  The Gaels are without a starter and are still thriving. 

Tonight versus USF is another chance to solve the jig saw puzzle.  There are no secrets as to how USF plays and how distasteful that loss was to our team.   Although it changes nothing in the final standings, it could at least be one hopeful momentum builder for the WCC  tourney next week.  Winning the WCC tourney is our long odds chance for a post season invite.  

If we can get to 20 wins again, it will at least keep hope alive that we can build something better for 2025.  

Let's do our part tonight by being loud and strong for our players to get this grudge win!  

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Roller Coaster

 

                                                                                                                     

The Broncos have four games left to improve on their 17-10 record and to build momentum for the WCC Tournament.  It's been a roller coaster ride so far with this season's performance much like the four weather "seasons."  We're hot, we're cold, and at times, we've lost the "spring" in our step along the way.

Signature wins against Gonzaga and humbling losses to San Jose State and San Diego are prime examples of the roller coaster highs and lows.  So far only St. Mary's and USF have avoided losses in league to teams they are favored to beat.  Most every team has fought through key player injuries, including the Broncos, without starters Adama Bal and Brenton Knapper the last three games.  Tonight, St. Mary's will be without 6'8"starter Joshua Jefferson versus USF in Moraga.  A big break for the Don's.

Our highly touted depth was severely tested in those three games and responded with stalwart efforts; most notably in the "rumble" loss at USF.  Everyone lost their composure, including the officials who applied a non rules based double standard; ejecting six players. Despite all of the chaos and being short handed, we should have won this game.  We were a turnover and rebound away in the final seconds.  

Our recent wins versus Pacific and, on the road, at San Diego featured step up efforts by Jake Ensminger, Tyree Bryan, Cam Tongue and a breakout performance at USD by Jalen Benjamin with 23 points and sealing the deal; making 10 of 11 free throws.  We hope this is the start of Jalen playing to his potential down the stretch.  Freshman guard Christian Hammond made two starts after Knapper's injury and showed potential but needs more minutes to settle in and get comfortable.  

As a result, we appear to have fourth place in hand, but are two games back of either second or third depending on the outcomes of the road game at Gonzaga and final game at Leavey versus USF.  This assumes we don't falter playing away at Portland or at home against LMU; both near the bottom in the WCC.  With the four seed, we advance directly into the quarterfinals and most likely play either USD, LMU, or Pepperdine.  If we win that game, we play St. Mary's in the semis if they remain the # 1 seed.  

The good news is everything is still in play, including a possible post season NIT invite.  To have consideration for an NCAA bid, we would have the win the WCC tourney or beat Gonzaga and USF in our final league games.  It appears to be a done deal that only two WCC teams will get bids.  

With all we've had to play through this season, our full lineup, except perhaps Brenton Knapper, should be ready for the final four games and tourney.  Our bench is more battle tested and has played key roles down the stretch.  We'll need every player to be at their best.  

The roller coaster ride continues this Thursday at Leavey versus LMU.  Let's hope we enjoy the ride and finish strong the last four in the WCC! 

 

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Regression

 

                                                                                                                             

After two strong road wins and a thrilling home win versus Gonzaga, season ticket holders and fans felt the momentum for bigger things ahead for the Broncos.  It appeared that this team, with so many new faces, was finally progressing and coming together to challenge the WCC mainstays.  

That feeling and momentum evaporated two nights later at home against St. Mary's who sucked the air out of Leavey and the Broncos forging a 20 point lead in the first 11 minutes.  The hangover has stayed with us for six games.  While winning three and losing three of those games, we have started all these games by falling behind 10-15 points in the first 10 minutes.   It's a head scratcher for Bronco fans.  Same team, same coaches, different results.  It feels like a regression.  It's like going to a Taylor Swift concert and expecting a good show and then Travis Kelce shows up who can't sing a lick!

Currently, at 15-9 and 6-3 in the WCC, our margin for error is evaporating.  The loss to USD at home was a Quad 4 loss and a NET ranking disaster for postseason nods.  The disparities are befuddling.  In three of those games, we scored an average of 55 second half points, yet against USD we scored a TOTAL of 59 losing by 11; despite getting 27 offensive rebounds.  

In doing a little homework from our past three 20 win seasons, we have these off games in about 20% of our schedule; roughly six games a season.  Losses like San Jose State, Pepperdine, LMU, and Pacific.  It's college basketball.  Losing to top 60 ranked teams is expected, but not to teams ranked outside of the top 200.  Three games a season can make the difference between an NCAA invite or staying home.  It's crazy, but it's not much different than the Golden State Warriors, who with the best talent in the world, lose a lot of games with big leads going into the fourth quarter.

To our credit, we have also played six Quad 1 games, winning two.  By the time the season ends, we might get 2-3 more Quad 1 credits as teams we've played, like Washington State and others, beat top 50 teams.  By comparison Gonzaga and USF have no Quad 1 wins this season and St. Mary's has 4.

We know a lot about this team after 24 games.  We can score.  We can rebound.  We occasionally play defense.  We turn the ball over.  We can go on big runs - both good and bad.  I think for the coaches and fans, it's the unforced turnovers that are the most frustrating.  The passes to no one, the inability to secure the basketball after a good rebound, and the persistent fumbles in the paint.  Unfortunately, I think turnovers are here to stay.  We are who we are.  

IMHO, to reach our potential, we need a leader to emerge.  We have a scoring leader, a rebounding leader, an assist leader, but not a floor leader.  Someone who has the creds to rally his teammates, hold himself, and others accountable.  Someone when we go off the rails can settle us down and focus on the next play and not force hero shots.  Someone who has a "go to" shot to get us back on track.  The past two seasons we've had Podz and Jalen who could fill those roles and make the big shot or assist at crucial moments.  Even with them, we had our bad nights like the NIT first round losses to Washington State and Sam Houston.  

With seven WCC games left, we need to stop the regression with aggression and progression.  I can't think of a better place to start that than at USF.  The games this Saturday at USF and Saturday, March 2nd at Leavey are HUGE.  They are rivalry games and they'll be ready to prove they deserve a # 65 NET ranking.  These two games will most likely determine third place in the WCC.  They have @SMC, Zags, home/away with Pepperdine, home/away with SCU, and then @LMU.  We have Pacific, @USD, LMU, @Portland, @Zags and two with USF including the last game of the season at Leavey.

I feel like their schedule is harder.  Regardless, we need to go 5-2 to have any chance for outright third or tie.  IF we can get there, our strength of schedule could pay dividends.  We are # 71 and USF # 263.  

One thing for sure, never a dull moment for the Broncos.  This is what Coach Sendek and his staff have been building for - these moments.  We hope this building stands tall seven games from now!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - No Shows and Shootouts

 

                                                                                                                                  

The anticipation for the games versus Gonzaga and St. Mary's at Leavey couldn't have been more hyped after the Broncos opened the WCC with two wins on the road over Loyola and Pepperdine.  Ticket sales were brisk and even the media paid uncharacteristic attention to Santa Clara for these regular season games.  Normally, the only ink we get has been related to the NBA draft as a result of back to back first round selections.  Even Bronco legend Steve Nash showed up!  

Fortunately and unfortunately two SRO crowds witnessed two "No Shows."  The first by Gonzaga and the second by the Broncos.   

We beat Gonzaga 77-76 breaking an 11 year drought and Coach Sendek's first win against the Bulldogs.  Our team was resilient, played together, weathered two second half runs, and in the end it was a fade away three bouncer on the rim by Adama Bal that became the winning basket with 4.6 seconds left.  Bedlam and a $5,000 fine ensued as students and fans stormed the floor and soaked up a momentous victory! 

These games have gone against us so many times.  Fortunately, however, in all honesty when you do a deeper dive into the game we took advantage of a season low performance by the Zags, in 3 point shooting (2-20), offensive rebounds (7), total rebounds (31), assists (8) and blocked shots (2).  

Give credit to our hustle and defense, but in reality they missed a lot of open looks.   If that wasn't enough, the Zags choked twice with under 14 seconds left.  With the Zags leading by one, Ryan Nembhard, an 83% free throw shooter missed the front end of a 1-1.  Our Adama Bal drove the length of the court and scored the go ahead basket and was fouled for a 1 point lead with 4.6 seconds left.  Bal, an 86% free throw shooter, then missed the free throw.  Next, the Zags most experienced player Anton Watson snagged the rebound and turned to go up court, left his feet and had no where to throw the ball except back to Adama Bal - choke number two - game over.  If not for our 18 turnovers, we win this game by at least 10.  We'll take it!

Unfortunately, it was our turn to no show against St. Mary's.  We produced season lows in 3 point shooting, rebounds, assists, on our way to a 23 point loss that wasn't even that close.  It marked the 6th time in the past 10 games we had more turnovers than assists.  Bronco fans were touting our perceived matchup advantages but Randy Bennett knew better.  Their first offensive play set the mismatch tone, going right to Joshua Jefferson vs Johnny O'Neil down low.  Jefferson backed him down for a four foot easy score.  It was a SMC clinic in the first 10 minutes of this game.  They carved us up like a cardiac surgeon and backed that up with a lockdown defense to lead by 30.  Tough to watch.  

For those watching, key differences in execution were easy to see.  St. Mary's on offense uses perhaps the best high ball screens in the WCC.  Their screeners actually trap defenders time after time, creating mismatches for easier shots.  On offense, our high ball screens are vapor; trapping no one.  SMC just shut us down.  Our two best players, Bal and Marshall had a total of five points.  Five.  Some say SMC point guards Mahaney and Marcuilionis aren't good shooters or playmakers.  How about their assists to turnover ratio of 4:1 against us.  They had ZERO turnovers the first half.  The overriding question is why did our guys look so lost?   We've been able to shoot our way out of some of these, but not this one. 

The SMC blowout loss was followed by two "shootouts."  Bronco fans were rightfully worried how the team would respond to the upcoming road games at Pacific and at home against Portland.  Two teams at the bottom of the WCC.  To our teams credit, we prevailed in both shootout games.  Put in perspective, Pacific is last in FG % and second to last in FG% defense.  Portland is seventh in FG% defense and eighth in 3 Pt. FG% defense.  In other words, both teams don't shoot or defend well at all.  

At Pacific we shot it well and dominated the worst rebounding team in the WCC.  We made 15 three's, had 21 assists to go with 18 second chance points.  Same story against Portland at home.  We had 16 three's, 28 assists, and 14 offensive rebounds.  These were two much needed wins.  While this all sounds impressive, we've had only one game all season versus a top 100 ranked opponent where we had 20 assists and that was Gonzaga.  It highlights lingering open issues for us to compete and beat better teams. 

Turnovers.  We are near the bottom in the WCC (7th) in TO's per game and assists to turnover ratio.  This includes having feasted on 49 total assists the past two games versus the last place teams which skew those results to look better.  We have two primary ball handlers - Brenton Knapper and Adama Bal.  Point guard is neither one's natural position.  That's an issue but not the critical one.  Our offensive execution needs help.  Our screens, cuts, motion and low post positioning needs to generate open looks and mismatches.  When we don't screen well, mismatches don't develop.  Why set screens if you don't intend to get someone?  We then revert to one on one play and get stuck in a bad position late in the clock and turn the ball over or face a tough shot.  

Our on ball defense.  We get caught in too many switches on ball screens and have to play catchup to recover that results in tough matchups.  Witness SMC took us apart in the half court and against Portland where our stated game plan was to force them into shooting 2 point shots, not three's.  Well, we got caught by their high screens and Portland torched us by making 10 of their first 12 three point shots.   Another side effect is excess fouling due to being out of position leading to opponents free throws.  Portland shot 29 free throws.

A bright spot in league has been our rebounding.  We are second in all categories including offensive rebounding at nearly 11 per game.  Those are key, in that they offer second  possessions and opportunities for second chance points. 

Don't get me wrong.  We have really good players.  A record of 14-7, given our lack of fundamentals and consistency is very good considering the most difficult schedule in Coach Sendek's tenure.  Our strength of schedule ranking is 75.  USF is at 270, SMC 55 and Gonzaga 60, we are in the mix.   

We have ten games remaining with four of those against the top three. Two against USF, one at Gonzaga and one at St. Mary's.  Six against the rest.  Two versus San Diego, one at Portland, one against Pacific, one with LMU and one versus Pepperdine all at Leavey.   

Five at Home and five away.  

It will take six more wins to position us for the WCC tourney and postseason.  One upset win and no upset losses would be perfect.  There no time left for "No Shows" and we'll take our chances with "shootouts."  

Go Broncos!