It's hard to complain about a 4-2 record, yet evident that in both our wins and losses, we're as cold as ice. Season to date, less than 40% FG shooting and 30% from three. In perspective, that's a full 10% lower than last season and 6% lower than the past three seasons including the Covid seasons.
You may ask, so what? What's the big deal? We're 4-2! At issue this is the easiest part of our difficult schedule. The road ahead gets much harder with no let up. Two tough neutral site roadies ahead versus Iona tonight and Wyoming on Wednesday, then nine straight at Leavey. Given our last performance against a very good DIII Menlo, nothing is a gimmie.
To quantify, we are averaging about 73 possessions/game which is around #9 in the NCAA. Really good, what the coaches want. We're taking 63 shots per game, making 24. If we adjust to our mean shooting percentage from the seasons above, that's 6-7 more shots made per game!
While each team from the past is different, the system is the same, modified to fit the current roster capabilities which was built with depth at the skill shooting positions. The plan is to create motion that frees our guards to penetrate and shoot or pass either to a cutter to the rim or a kickout pass to an open shooter. Other options are to go down to the low block to a big who will work a post move and score or again kickout to an open shooter. Good system, but Coaches don't take shots.
So far, other than a few breakout performances, the most consistent thing is our inconsistency. When the ball and players are moving the good shots are there, but not falling. When shots don't fall, frustration builds and we devolve into one on one mode, where shots come late in the clock and are defended well and harder to make. Opposing coaches game plan for this against us.
When we go down to the low block to create space, opponents double us in the post, forcing us to kick it out for a longer shot, knowing we've been struggling from the outside. The math works. Our post bigs make 55-60% of their close-in five footers or get fouled; where we shoot 71% as a team from the foul line vs 29% from three.
That's why I say we need some ice breakers to step up and lead this team to the shooting they are capable of game after game. When you're missing shots you usually make, it's easy to "press" the issue and take harder shots than normal. Competitors want to lead, it's part of their DNA. That's one reason we see more one on one play because they want to put the team on their back to get the team in a rhythm.
Make no mistake, we will have to shoot our way out of this. Every team we play will game plan to our weaknesses.
A bright spot has been our rebounding and overall defense. Enough to get four W's with poor shooting. Both were real focus areas for the coaches in practices and it shows. Everybody is onboard to "board". Our leading rebounder is a guard! Of Parker Braun's 39 rebounds, 23 are offensive leading to second chance points - big. On D, we're holding our opponents to 40% or less FG% and 28% from three, much better than last year's team. This includes the Utah State game where they torched us from everywhere.
Maybe, just maybe, the Menlo game started the thawing in the second half. Some threes fell for our shooters and both Keshawn Justice and Parker Braun dished out five assists, most for easy lay-ins. That's good play for de-icing.
Once Carlos Marshall III and Giordan Williams return, their added depth and experience will bolster our rotation.
For now, our team needs to get on a "heater" the next nine games to get rid of the ice storm and be ready for a very tough WCC schedule. What we can do as season ticket holders and fans is show up at Leavey and get loud to pump up our guys.
We all have a lot of "hot air" in us. Let's bring it!
