"The Bucking Bronco"
"The key to success in college basketball is recruiting and scheduling", said Coach Keating in our December interview.
Sounds easy enough...Find the right players, put them in a good system where they develop, schedule stronger opponents, beat a ranked team or two, and voila, compete for WCC titles and NCAA bids. Anybody can do it? Right?
Turns out, very few can. Analyzing the variables involved in the above formula would "choke" IBM's Watson super computer.
Some NCAA Tourney qualifying "gee whiz" numbers:
Less than 10% of all NCAA division 1 teams are conference winners
Another 11% get at-large bids - most of these come from the top 3 teams in the best conferences
Of all at-large bids, 4 or 5% (3 - 4 teams) are selected outside of these parameters
That sounds easy - doesn't it?
The formula for Santa Clara, and many others in the Mid-Major mix to make the NCAA tourney, is either win the league or league tournament or finish second and have a strong RPI resume.
As with success in any realm - you need to make your Brand stand out and deliver performance.
And performance means recruiting. Recruiting means the ability to judge the talent and potential of 15 -16 years olds....According to Coach Keating, "we recruit on a 6 year cycle" and then try to "schedule out" 3 - 4 years. It's a high stakes "what if's" guessing game.
Unlike the Big Name conference teams, Santa Clara is not on the radar of 5 and 4 star ranked recruits. The competition for 3 star recruits is fierce. Add our tougher academic standards and slim budgets. You get the picture. We search in the 2 star and under ranks. We'll go after 3's but it's a tough win.
I reminded Coach Keating of his recruiting reputation coming into Santa Clara.
I have to say, given all of the above, he's done well. His first 2008-09 class was maybe the best. Foster, Trasolini, James Rahon, with big John Bryant, Scott Thompson, Ben Dowdell, Michael Santos, and Calvin Johnson filling out the existing.roster. However, they never seemed to "gel" and then losing Thompson (medical) and Rahon (xfer to SDS) was a blow.
There was some real optimism going into 2011-12 after adding Ray Cowels, Niyi Harrison, and Evan Roquemore in 2010. 2010/11 was a 24-14 year and a 9-6 WCC record with a post season CIT championship.
We all know the wheels came off in 2011-2012 - but Coach found Brandon Clark and Denzel Washington who, along with the above players, refocused and won 26 games and the CBI and my guess, were maybe one or two overtime losses away from that elusive NCAA at-large bid....
Coach recalled, with angst, several "recruiting coup" near misses who would have been game changers during this time period. We just got our pocket picked at the last minute.
Overall, we've had as many recruits succeed as those who have not panned out. Not bad in the talent judging stats.
More importantly, we have not, as yet, either found or developed that "break out" kid
or as Coach Keating says "the guy you're not supposed to get".
NOW would be a great moment for that...
I DO like the 2013-14 class.
I hope Jared Brownridge turns into "that guy you're not supposed to get".
If he, Jalen and Emmanuel develop and our new recruits add punch - just maybe.....they'll become the best.
FYI. Click on the link to see Santa Clara's 2014 recruits from the ESPN rankings:
Santa Clara 2014 Recruits
Just maybe it allows us to create a STRONGER SCHEDULE. The second key to success.
The Season Ticket holders formula, is to go "Formula One" - get out the race car. Coach Keating told me "we are sitting on an oilfield with a Ferrari". I hope we can afford the "gas" to let it race....
Damon Bruce Interview with Coach Keating
Some NCAA Tourney qualifying "gee whiz" numbers:
Less than 10% of all NCAA division 1 teams are conference winners
Another 11% get at-large bids - most of these come from the top 3 teams in the best conferences
Of all at-large bids, 4 or 5% (3 - 4 teams) are selected outside of these parameters
That sounds easy - doesn't it?
The formula for Santa Clara, and many others in the Mid-Major mix to make the NCAA tourney, is either win the league or league tournament or finish second and have a strong RPI resume.
As with success in any realm - you need to make your Brand stand out and deliver performance.
And performance means recruiting. Recruiting means the ability to judge the talent and potential of 15 -16 years olds....According to Coach Keating, "we recruit on a 6 year cycle" and then try to "schedule out" 3 - 4 years. It's a high stakes "what if's" guessing game.
Unlike the Big Name conference teams, Santa Clara is not on the radar of 5 and 4 star ranked recruits. The competition for 3 star recruits is fierce. Add our tougher academic standards and slim budgets. You get the picture. We search in the 2 star and under ranks. We'll go after 3's but it's a tough win.
I reminded Coach Keating of his recruiting reputation coming into Santa Clara.
I have to say, given all of the above, he's done well. His first 2008-09 class was maybe the best. Foster, Trasolini, James Rahon, with big John Bryant, Scott Thompson, Ben Dowdell, Michael Santos, and Calvin Johnson filling out the existing.roster. However, they never seemed to "gel" and then losing Thompson (medical) and Rahon (xfer to SDS) was a blow.
There was some real optimism going into 2011-12 after adding Ray Cowels, Niyi Harrison, and Evan Roquemore in 2010. 2010/11 was a 24-14 year and a 9-6 WCC record with a post season CIT championship.
We all know the wheels came off in 2011-2012 - but Coach found Brandon Clark and Denzel Washington who, along with the above players, refocused and won 26 games and the CBI and my guess, were maybe one or two overtime losses away from that elusive NCAA at-large bid....
Coach recalled, with angst, several "recruiting coup" near misses who would have been game changers during this time period. We just got our pocket picked at the last minute.
Overall, we've had as many recruits succeed as those who have not panned out. Not bad in the talent judging stats.
More importantly, we have not, as yet, either found or developed that "break out" kid
or as Coach Keating says "the guy you're not supposed to get".
NOW would be a great moment for that...
I DO like the 2013-14 class.
I hope Jared Brownridge turns into "that guy you're not supposed to get".
If he, Jalen and Emmanuel develop and our new recruits add punch - just maybe.....they'll become the best.
FYI. Click on the link to see Santa Clara's 2014 recruits from the ESPN rankings:
Santa Clara 2014 Recruits
Just maybe it allows us to create a STRONGER SCHEDULE. The second key to success.
Why is schedule so important? RPI baby. Like it or not NCAA selection committees like RPI.
Our competitors, Gonzaga, BYU, and St. Mary's each spend upwards of $500K annually for "play in" games where they pay opponents to come into their home arenas to play and frankly - lose. Duke used us for this purpose a few years ago as did Notre Dame. All in the name of winning and RPI. You may not know it, but WE had to pay teams to come to Leavey - just so we could get into the CIT, CBI, and last year's Las Vegas Invitational. We needed to win those games to get an invite. So, sometimes when we, as season ticket holders grouse about Sacred Heart - there's a bigger reason.
We all ask "why don't we play better teams" in the East, or Cal, or Stanford? The money's not there. No good team wants to come all the way out west. Too far, too expensive, and if they are good, they might lose and guess what - wreck their RPI. Both Cal and Stanford have the money and want bigger games.
IF, we can buy or get a better schedule and beat some teams with a recognizable Brand or ranked OR qualify for an NCAA, it can be the rocket fuel we need to sustain "better" everything.
We have a REAL chance this year to make some noise at The Old Spice Classic - some bigger name teams and on the road - a "rush" for RPI and recruiting. Can we seize it??
The Season Ticket holders formula, is to go "Formula One" - get out the race car. Coach Keating told me "we are sitting on an oilfield with a Ferrari". I hope we can afford the "gas" to let it race....
We've been in the slow lane way to long.....
P.S. For More on Recruiting and Scheduling, click on the link for Coach Keating's May 27, 2014 interview with Damon Bruce. You have to hang in there for a minute while Damon segways.
Next Up: X's and O's and Coach Keating Talks about the Future.
