Santa Clara Men's Basketball - We Need to Be "King of the Road" in the WCC

 

                                                                                                                  

After a 3-5 rough start to the season, the Broncos are riding a five game winning streak and stand at 8-5 after a blowout win against South Dakota before WCC league play starts.  While 8-5 is not what this team expected, three late game lapses with sizeable leads sent us off the rails of a season goal of finally making another NCAA tourney.  

While all is not lost, the slight odds of an NIT or NCAA berth depends upon this experienced team playing to their potential, and more, in the WCC.  We'll need to be "King of the Road" in league to have a sniff at postseason. 

The 18 game conference schedule is much more difficult than in the past as Washington State and Oregon State have crashed the party; adding two more worthy opponents who are ranked ahead of us.  This is on top of our usual nemeses, Gonzaga, St. Mary's, and USF; where we've have had very limited success against over the past eight seasons.  The short answer is, we can't afford a loss to the bottom five in the league: Portland, Pepperdine, LMU, USD, or Pacific.  Their average NCAA rank is # 259.  Compare the WCC top teams average ranking of # 45, skewed by the Zags at # 6.  

One's tendency would be to think that's 10 wins from the bottom 5 teams and expect 3 wins against the top teams for a 13-5 WCC record.  That would be a mistake, particularly when you inspect the league travel schedules.  The Broncos have seven one day rest turnarounds between games and most will require flights traveling far North to far South in that two day span.  Oh, and they'll need a practice after a game the night before and then, after practice, fly south and play that same night.   For example, we play LMU in Los Angeles on January 16th at 7:00 pm.  We then fly North to Spokane to play the Zags on January 18th at 6:00 pm!  Imagine this scenario 6 more times playing the other teams during league.  Daunting.

It's the same for most all WCC teams, except of course the Zags, who have fewer one day turnarounds AND more days between most games, three versus two days and four games with four days in between.  Perks for the perennial champs.  

So we have to be "King of the Road" to reach 13-5.  We will most likely lose one or two to the bottom 5, but will need to find two more upset wins against the top 5.  The Broncos' horses will be ridden hard and put away wet as they say in ranching.  

Everyone will have to play to their potential.  During our five game win streak, the new starting lineup has performed like was expected at the start of the season.  Christoph Tilly, Carlos Stewart, Jake Ensminger, and Elijah Mahi have sustained a high performance level in those games and, against Kennesaw State, Adama Bal had his best game of the season with 27 points.  Tyree Bryan has been clutch and Brenton Knapper and Cam Tongue have provided strong minutes.  

The key is we are moving the ball better as witnessed by 104 assists the past five games and, in each game, more assists than turnovers.  Consequently, the shot selection for the most part is much better and scoring is more balanced.  Even our defense has been better at key points in the game, but there's still much work needed to be done as we prefer to drop under high ball screens and leave good shooting opponents open three point looks.  As such, out of 364 D1 teams, we are ranked # 227 in three point rate defense. 

We will know after the first five WCC games if we are up to the challenge as we play USF twice in addition to Pepperdine and Oregon State at Leavey and San Diego on the road.  As Bronco season ticket holders and fans, we all know "it's good to be King" and "King of the Road" is what we aspire to and want to see happen!

Merry Christmas to all Bronco fans!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - We Need to Pull Rank

 

                                                                                                                      

If the Broncos are to salvage this season, we will need to pull some serious rank and if we don't, our season may end up being "rank."  

By pull rank, I mean we need to stop underperforming and significantly overperform our current team ranking and beat opponents ranked well ahead of us.  It's a tall order.  Our best hope is to play lights out in the WCC league regular season - think 2nd, and get the bye into the semifinals and then pull the ultimate rank and beat Gonzaga in the league tourney final.

NCAA analytics sites with rankings have their place, but can be inflated and biased due to placing higher values on power conference teams.  For example, our wins versus TCU and McNeese this season had them ranked inside the top 75.  No way they're that good.  Witness Stanford with a high ranking, who to whom we gave the game away, and then they go and lose to # 212 Cal Poly?  

The same principle applies to strength of schedule (SOS).  At 4-5 we have a SOS of # 47 in the country.  St. Mary's SOS is # 194 and USF # 289.  The key is they are winning games against teams they should beat.  We're not. 

It's all about how you're playing.  How consistent and good is your offense and defense.  Here's the data regarding the teams we must beat to get 2nd in the WCC. 

Rankings:

Gonzaga:      Offensive rate: 3   Defense: 14    Turnovers: 8   Three point Defense: 6

St. Mary's:    Offensive rate: 36   Defense: 91   Turnovers: 104   Three Point Defense: 151

USF:             Offensive rate:  64   Defense: 30   Turnovers: 250   Three point Defense: 111

Santa Clara: Offensive rate: 107  Defense: 108   Turnovers: 144   Three point Defense: 194

To give one relative perspective, Gonzaga is the # 4 ranked team in the NCAA, but they are the # 1 ranked combined overall offensive and defensive team   They score, don't turn it over, and defend well; all things that we struggle with.  Statistically, we are lagging in most all categories from last season albeit on a smaller sample size of nine games.  More notably our assists and free throw rates are down from last season as Bronco fans see the ball not moving, lots of dribbling, and what seems to be a three point from anyone, anywhere, at any time preference regardless of the shooter's three point shooting percentages.  

Starting tonight's game versus Fresno State, we hope to see this most experienced roster turn things around and get on track; not just trying the same things and expecting different results.  Start a four game win steak moving into league play and then "pull rank" on the WCC leaders and contend rather than lag back in 4th again.  

And that's something as fans and season ticket holders we can all pull for!

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - "Soul Searching"

 

                                                                                                         

What happens when the most experienced team in the Coach Sendek era can't seem to perform to their own expectations or talent level?  Or when a team with a schedule designed to be NCAA worthy falls apart the first six games?  What about a roster that's ten deep and can't seem to find an on the floor combination that can consistently score or defend?  

How about having good second half leads in three games with under 3 minutes to play and lose all those games?  What if even fundamentals like working the clock late in the game to get the shot you want by the person you want to shoot it or making free throws to close out the game?  

It all ends up in the same place.  Soul searching.  Coaches and players together and players only to lay bare how to revive their season.  A locker room confessional of honesty, accountability, and commitment to each other with a penance of doing the work of turning this 2-4 start around.  A willingness to play the hot hands and sit the cold ones. 

The numbers are a head scratcher:  5 of our 8 core players are well behind their prior season averages; some significantly.   Out of 364 Division 1 teams, we are ranked # 180 in effective field goal offense, # 272 in 3pt field goal offense, # 244 in field goal defense, #330 in effective 3pt field goal defense, and # 257 in free throw rate offense.  

Soul searching...

It's only six games in, yet we seem to be taking the same approach.  Our game plans are to defend our opponents best three point shooters off the 3 point line, but we don't or can't; as our 3 point defense rank above shows.  Witness Saturday night against Stanford when Oziyah Sellers shredded us for 10 points with three minutes to play making two 3 pointers and an undefended dunk.  On our offense, we continue to shoot 3's early in the clock coming from those who might be better off taking it to the rim to get a better look or foul.  A # 257 free throw rate and assist rates make this apparent.   The ball and our players are not moving.

Our talent rank is #131 and WCC talent rank # 6.  

There are bright spots.  New Juco transfer Elijah Mahi is shooting it at 55% from two and three.  Christoph Tilly and Tyree Bryan are also off to good starts.  Bukky Oboye showed some skills Saturday night on defense and even made his first three.  Not bad for a  7'1" Freshman.   

Our depth, while an advantage, is fragile.  An advantage, in that we don't have much drop off from starters to second units with the exception at center, where our bigger subs are a freshman and a sophomore with only a few minutes playing time.   Fragile, in that the matchups on defense and rebounding can be more challenging when 7'0" Tilly and 6'10" Johnny O'Neil are off the floor.  Our size drops down about 4 inches per player to about 6'6".  

Herein may lie the Coaches dilemma.  Without Tilly, and if O'Neil and/or Bal are not shooting well that night, we get smaller fast.   Going smaller allows us to interchange capable shooters like Mahi and Bryan at the risk of not successfully defending opposing centers and rebounding.  The Coaches need to be able to go with the hot hands since we've had several 20% 3 point shooting games from starters.  Maybe Bukky Oboye can assume the minutes when Tilly and Cam are in early foul trouble freeing up Coaches to sub for shooters on off nights.  

We'll find out Thursday what if any changes will be made or rotations that might be different.  Standing pat may not bear fruit.  Even Steve Kerr sits Steph Curry when he's not right.   

Maybe soul searching and Mea Culpa's will have been done so we can start playing with more grit, ball movement, direction, and freedom.  We'll find out Thursday versus TCU. 

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - The Panic Button

 

                                                                                                                         

The promise of the most experienced roster in eight years under Coach Sendek was expected to make a lot of noise this season.  So far the noise they've made is a loud crash.  A 1-3 start is the reverse of what Bronco fans and, I think, Coaches planned on.  The season started with a good road win vs St. Louis and then devolved into chaos with bad losses to ASU, North Dakota State, and a drubbing by a good Nevada team. 

Is it time to push the panic button?   Maybe.

The players seems as confused as the fans.  On offense, there doesn't appear to be a set of "go to" plays when one is needed.  This team wants to score early in transition, a good thing, but not by solely jacking up 3's from long distance early in the clock.  Our core lineup is shooting 10.6% from three on an average of 31 threes per game.  Our second unit is much better; shooting 45% from three on 50 fewer attempts.  Our defense is allowing opponents to enjoy a 42% clip from deep.  Not a great combination.  

Curiously, our Achilles Heel from last season, turnovers are 25% less at under 10 per game.  Our assists are down 30% from our average last season.  Tough to get assists when you are struggling to make shots.

In game adjustments are hard to notice, as it seems we are desperately hoping for a "reversion to the mean" by playing the same way.   The problem so far is what is the new mean?   One bright spot is from one of our players new to the system, Elijah Mahi, a JC transfer who is leading the team in scoring at 17 ppg while shooting over 60%.  Clearly, something different is needed to get this talented roster on track.  

Time for the panic button?  Not quite yet.  However, it would be a big boost to win six of the next seven games against teams we would expect to beat, with perhaps a loss against either the Colorado State/ Washington game.  Emerging at 7-4 from the next three weeks would restore some confidence and momentum to finish the pre-season and head into the WCC schedule.  

Certainly, the season expectations of a post season berth will be in play over the next three weeks.  We'll know if we're on track or will need a WCC tournament championship upset to meet the expectations this roster and Bronco fans expect. 

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - My Interview with New Athletic Director Heather Owen

 

                                                                                                                 

On November 5th President Julie Sullivan, the Board of Trustees, and the search committee made the decision to hire Heather Owen as Santa Clara Athletics' Director.   The hire comes at a pivotal time for all Santa Clara teams and, most notably, for Men's Basketball.  While great strides have been made in MBB, we remain parked in third or fourth in the WCC behind perennial powerhouse Gonzaga along with St. Mary's and USF.  

The timing couldn't be better now that our MBB Athletic facilities are of national quality, removing one of the biggest obstacles for recruiting more talent.  We are poised to able to make the move to higher level of competitiveness with goals to make the NCAA tournament frequently.  

While the opportunities are great, so are the challenges to actually achieve them in the new NCAA world as a result of the legal judgement allowing "pay for play."  This opportunity to be on a level with Gonzaga, Xavier, Villanova, Creighton, and Marquette has been talked about for the last 10 years, but to my knowledge a specific plan with accountability has yet to be implemented.  President Sullivan has stated "we're not where we need to be in Men's Basketball."  This is not a slap at Coach Sendek nor his staff, rather a clear recognition of the immense value to the entire University that a top 25, NCAA tournament level team fosters.  

So, what was it about Heather Owen that prompted her selection?  President Sullivan said Heather, "As a leader, she has the smarts and strategic and operational acumen needed to achieve excellence and, importantly, the candor, calm, and trustworthiness required to successfully manage the challenges faced in building a highly competitive program."  

Quite an endorsement.  In our conversation, it was evident that she understands top level success given her tenure as Stanford Athletics department senior administrator and more importantly her competitive basketball career playing in three NCAA final fours for Tara VanDerveer.  When asked what made Tara Vanderveer so successful for so many years, her answer was that she had a keen eye for talent and developed it into sustained top ten level program.  Tara was demanding and got the most from her players.  

Heather stated plainly it's all about talent.  She recalled a Tara Vanderveer quote "that you can't win the Kentucky Derby riding on a donkey."  That quote summarizes the magnitude of what Heather and we face in MBB.  Our roster this year is a good one; maybe the overall best in the Herb Sendek eight years.  Our talent level has progressed based on Santa Clara's history, but not fast enough to challenge Gonzaga or St. Mary's.  Even USF has landed talented big men and certainly guards.  Our 6-19 record versus the Dons since 2016 is evidence of their strides. 

I really enjoyed hearing from Heather about what we want to become in MBB, but given where we are and have remained, it's a tall order even for Heather who is 6'4".

It's seems to me to be a radical change that's needed, not an SCU strong suit.  We have a history of being too patient for results.  I think 28 years for an NCAA invite is patient enough.  IMHO, this aspiration to compete at the level mentioned will require changes and upgrades far surpassing the current or any funding level in any SCU sport.  

Two examples for MBB are NIL and direct payment to athletes from the University budget.  NIL is the "Name, Image, Likeness" that, in the past, was outside of direct University purview; where corporate or other sponsors could contract with athletes and compensate them for using their images, whether social media, ads, etc.  This has now become essentially "unregulated" as a result of the NCAA lawsuit settlement.  Want a 5* recruit either from high school or the transfer portal?  There is a going rate and it's not cheap.  I don't know our budget, but the Zags purportedly drop $ 3+ mil here.  No wonder their roster is always stacked.  Want to help, call Heather.  The ante is $ 3 Mil for openers.

In March 2025, the lawsuit will likely be ratified or modified where athletes can be paid directly for their services by Universities.  Welcome to Jerry Maguire.  Want talent.  "Show me the Money!" 

These are only two of a number of  areas that Heather and her team will have to navigate for MBB to make a legit try to move up.  The Bronco athletic staff so far seems impressed.  I do believe there is sincere motivation from Heather to be a difference maker here as she was reported to be at Stanford.  For Bronco season ticket holders and fans the former "go slow" process for change at SCU has worn itself out.  Slow is not part of Silicon Valley culture and we should take that to heart.  

It's clear Heather has the tools to succeed.   We'll see soon enough if she can use those tools to "build" athletics and, in particular, Men's Basketball into an NCAA tourney level program.  

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - Should We Expect Great Expectations?

 

                                                                                                                 

In 2013, SCU Athletic Director Dan Coonan declared with great enthusiasm a "new day" for Santa Clara Athletics when Fr. Michael Engh convened an elite panel to study and recommend the path forward for Athletics.  

In July 2014, the SCU Board of Trustees approved the President's Blue Ribbon Commission Plan for "national relevance" for Bronco Athletics and, in particular, Men's Basketball.  This became a piece of the SCU 2020 strategic plan.  The results for Men's Basketball during this seven year period was three winning seasons without any WCC titles, NIT or NCAA invites.  That's not national prominence.  The only National program was Women's Soccer with six NCAA appearances and, yes, a National Championship College Cup in 2020.

From 2021-2024 there was significant improvement in Men's Basketball.  Four consecutive winning seasons, three 20+ win seasons, two NBA first round draft picks, and two NIT invites.  Our NBA picks got us great national press and exposure; yet for all this improvement, we remain in 3rd and 4th place in the WCC.  

In January 2023, current President Julie Sullivan initiated the Impact 2030 strategic plan that mentions Women's Soccer and Men's Basketball as part of the "Belonging for all Broncos" strategic priority to engage and foster pride in our students.  This 2030 plan, I believe, will be the third time Men's Basketball is mentioned, but this plan is silent on the goal of national prominence.  

For Bronco season ticket holders and fans, we aren't sure if we're hoping for "third times a charm" or "playing the three card monte shell game?"  

No doubt, from 2020-2024, our athletics facilities and staff finally enjoyed the makeover  that the University academic areas have flourished from for the past 20 years.  But if you read the Impact 2030 recap of results from the 2020-2024 strategic plan under National Prominence, there is no mention of Athletics in the "University on the Rise" summary. 

We have been down this road before with Father Locatelli and Father Engh, and, now President Sullivan in addition to previous Athletic Directors Dan Coonan and Renee Baumgartner plus coaches Kerry Keating, Herb Sendek, and staff.  

It would be nice to see a set of Goals for Athletics and, in particular, Men's Basketball, that have specifics and accountability.  President Sullivan, The Trustees, and new A.D. Heather Owen are openly talking about and seem committed to rising another level to challenge Gonzaga and the other big five national Catholic Universities in Men's Basketball.  

It's a perfect time to "go for it" with NCAA sports and Men's Basketball becoming a free agent market - to go get more talent.  Find it and NIL it.  It works for Gonzaga, Creighton, Xavier, Villanova, and Marquette.  The thing is, many of our donors love having their names on a building.  How about a WCC championship or consistent NCAA invites instead?  That's unprecedented national PR exposure.  I love Rhodes Scholars, but I also love basketball All- Americans like we used to have.  Who gets more press for the University? 

Our coaches, while piling up consecutive 20 win seasons, come from conferences where four teams usually get NCAA invites due to the strength of the league competition.  Not the WCC.  Just not going to happen, unless you win the league or the conference tournament.  That's not going to change when Gonzaga bolts for the Pac 10 or 12 or whatever number of teams.  We will still have to deal with St.. Mary's, USF, and others that will challenge for that title and maybe only one NCAA ticket.

I think season ticket holders want either to be bold or fold.  Use this season of winning to build a war chest of what it takes to go to the next level.  We have the roster to make a statement this year.  

How?  Make the NCAA tournament this season.  Then, although the way above my pay grade, maybe SCU to the PAC 12 in 2026?  Sound crazy?  With Gonzaga moving to the PAC 12 they must have assurances the league will survive.  Washington State and Oregon State are moving from the WCC to the Pac 12 in 2026 as well.  

The upside is, it would help our scheduling with more selective non-conference games because the league competition would be much stronger.  It would signify a real commitment to this notion of rivaling Gonzaga and the other teams mentioned above.  Our coaches built their resumes in the PAC 12 type leagues, so it's not a foreign concept.  For recruiting, better players want better competition.  

The downside is we forego the possibility to win league titles or tournaments and qualify for NCAA's in a weakened WCC.  It's is definitely a cheaper solution.  The other risk is similar to our Achilles Heel of the past 30 years - money, commitment, and accountability.

If we want to be truly National, we need to earn it.  

If it all doesn't' work out, we can always go down to a level of recreational sports and continue to be a strong academic presence in Silicon Valley.

So, should we expect great expectations?  We hope so.  We would love to see the Broncos as a horse to ride into an NCAA tourney!

Next up.  My interview with our New Athletics Director - Heather Owen.

Santa Clara Men's Basketball - It's a Numbers Game

 

                                                                                                                   

AI - Artificial Intelligence is dominating media headlines as a definitive way to solve massive data intensive problems.  It's use in NCAA Men's Basketball will revolutionize the speed and insight provided to coaches stemming from analytics that capture every detail from every player and every possession.  

It's a numbers game that will become the basis of how "Money Ball" will take over college athletics.  Our new A.D. will have to integrate all the current best practices of traditional college athletics with the rapidly unfolding "money ball" world where the price tag of top talent just got a huge raise. 

Coaches, who for most of their careers, have relied on years of experience and judgement, now have added tools in building competitive rosters, scheduling, game planning, and in-game decisions based on actual situational statistical facts.  They'll need new tools, as the long standing model of recruiting young players and developing them like Jalen Williams has morphed into buy now, win now through the new free agency NCAA transfer portal.  

This is a pivotal year for the Broncos.  The petabytes of NCAA basketball analytics predict success when a team has a roster of returnees and transfers that played more than 60% of the previous season's minutes and teams that execute the "Four Factors" better than their opponents.  SCU's returning roster minutes - 76%.

The four factors in order of importance are: 

Effective FG% Efficiency:  A formula that combines a teams two and three point percentages.   Performance Weight:  40%, SCU 2025 National Rank:  90

Protecting the Ball:  Turnovers.  Performance Weight:  25%, SCU 2024 Rank:  277

Controlling the Boards:  Rebounding.  Performance Weight:  20%, SCU 2024 Rank:  18

Converting at the Line:  Free throw %.  Performance Weight: 15%,  SCU Rank: 215

Here are the projected numbers for the Broncos in 2024-2025.  The predictions are based upon the actual performances of every player on our current roster versus every team on our schedule and using every players total offensive and defensive possessions from last season.  These come from multiple sources.  

Current pre-season NCAA team rank 99.  Expected record 18-12.  WCC Season projection has us tied for 4th with USF.  Projected effective roster talent:  WCC, 7th.  Roster Experience rank:  WCC, 3rd.  Offensive efficiency rank: NCAA  90; WCC, 3rd.  Defensive efficiency rank:  NCAA, 112; WCC, 5th.  NCAA tournament chance:  Seeded 11%; Auto bid 6.4%; Total Odds 6.9%.

On Offense, we have two players ranked in the WCC top 20 - #18 and #20.  Gonzaga has six, USF with five, and St. Mary's five.

On defense, we have one player ranked in the top 10 in the WCC and two others top 20.  Gonzaga, St. Mary's and USF own the other 17 top spots. 

While projections are just data backed assumptions, it's clear we have work to do.  The data doesn't project roster improvement, just the value of the talent and returning roster minutes and experience.  How can our coaches get the maximum development and improvement from our players?  Can we adapt our system of play on offense and defense to unlock the talent that might be unique in this roster?  The top teams, Gonzaga and St. Mary's, are exceptional at creating mis-matches both on offense and defense that propel them to the number # 1 offense and top 20 defense.  

Identifying the improvements needed is easy.  Correcting them is much harder and a big hill to climb for the Broncos.  NCAA tournament level teams in the WCC and on our schedule average rank on offense was 41 and defense 40.  SCU was 107 and 134.  Their turnover rates average 10/game versus SCU at 13.  That amounts to about 100 possessions for the season at an SCU offensive point per possession rate of 109.8 or 110 more points.  I think we all know where we could have used those extra points.

In spite of the hill to climb, we are still in the mix for post season and with some upsets and no losses to 200 plus ranked teams an NCAA.   We're going to need to go full "Podziemski" mode this season - overlooked, underrated and come out of nowhere to impose our will on our opponents.  Post some "numbers" we can all be proud of and prove the prognosticators wrong!